# Merge 06: candidate s2-side-risk against incumbent N

**Pooled evidence.** The candidate (`b1edc389…`) measures slightly below N: mean paired difference -0.0853, SE 0.0430, over 1500 seeds (410500-411999). Retail -0.2042, arbitrage +0.1189.

**By spread.** Only spread 2 changes (n=377): mean -0.3394, SE 0.1706; retail -0.8125, arbitrage +0.4731. So less arbitrage loss is outweighed by lost retail edge. Spreads 1, 3 and 4 (n=390, 375, 358) have every paired difference exactly 0.

**Blocks agree in sign.** Overall: -0.1903 (SE 0.1042), -0.0293 (0.0635), -0.0363 (0.0418). Block a holds most of the loss; its seed 410727 alone is -45.84, 36% of the pooled sum_d.

**Flag: none.** All blocks are complete, with no failures and hashes N `bf0d179f…` and candidate as above. The item brief's expected check values are not in my inputs; the blocks match each other to six decimals. Notes of b and c say their checks passed; a's notes do not mention them, but its values equal c's. Block b reports check values rounded to six decimals and ran Python 3.12.3; a and c ran 3.14.4.

**Key.** Blocks report keys -a, -b and -c; `s2-side-risk` is their shared stem.

**Inputs:** `.imd/reads/artifacts/item-s2-side-risk-{a,b,c}`, SHA-256 matching the brief. Only pooling was computed.

```json
{
 "candidates": [
  {
   "key": "s2-side-risk",
   "candidate_sha256": "b1edc389df0c35a2dc0d73096f6a5eed337ff4ef026000ef67621f34773fee8f",
   "blocks": [
    {
     "seeds": {
      "start": 410500,
      "end": 410999
     },
     "n": 500,
     "complete": true,
     "failures": [],
     "python_version": "3.14.4",
     "check_values": [
      17.1160017503,
      20.0171113118,
      2.3903113616,
      241.4847522404
     ],
     "incumbent_mean": 90.7267738808984
    },
    {
     "seeds": {
      "start": 411000,
      "end": 411499
     },
     "n": 500,
     "complete": true,
     "failures": [],
     "python_version": "3.12.3",
     "check_values": [
      17.116002,
      20.017111,
      2.390311,
      241.484752
     ],
     "incumbent_mean": 94.6898495987146
    },
    {
     "seeds": {
      "start": 411500,
      "end": 411999
     },
     "n": 500,
     "complete": true,
     "failures": [],
     "python_version": "3.14.4",
     "check_values": [
      17.1160017503,
      20.0171113118,
      2.3903113616,
      241.4847522404
     ],
     "incumbent_mean": 96.9505197446568
    }
   ],
   "pooled": {
    "overall": {
     "n": 1500,
     "sum_d": -127.9401505484002,
     "sum_d2": 4169.198244345496,
     "mean": -0.08529343369893347,
     "se": 0.04300418496163981,
     "retail_diff": -0.20419832951906672,
     "arb_diff": 0.11890489581980002
    },
    "by_spread": {
     "1": {
      "n": 390,
      "sum_d": 0.0,
      "sum_d2": 0.0,
      "mean": 0.0,
      "se": 0.0,
      "retail_diff": 0.0,
      "arb_diff": 0.0
     },
     "2": {
      "n": 377,
      "sum_d": -127.9401505484002,
      "sum_d2": 4169.198244345496,
      "mean": -0.33936379455809074,
      "se": 0.17060369576824852,
      "retail_diff": -0.8124601970254646,
      "arb_diff": 0.47309640246604784
     },
     "3": {
      "n": 375,
      "sum_d": 0.0,
      "sum_d2": 0.0,
      "mean": 0.0,
      "se": 0.0,
      "retail_diff": 0.0,
      "arb_diff": 0.0
     },
     "4": {
      "n": 358,
      "sum_d": 0.0,
      "sum_d2": 0.0,
      "mean": 0.0,
      "se": 0.0,
      "retail_diff": 0.0,
      "arb_diff": 0.0
     }
    }
   },
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}
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