{
 "key": "fresh6-1",
 "status": "completed; negative result, no promotion",
 "track": "B",
 "mechanism": {
  "name": "Committed-hypothesis quoting (decision rule on the quote inputs)",
  "what_changes": "On the first trade of a step, when the lattice call is an ambiguous two-branch mixture (1-hard < pi < hard), the base feeds the qm tables the moment-matched (mean, sd) of the bimodal mixture pi*delta(lp_arb) + (1-pi)*cut retail posterior. The candidate instead feeds the tables the moments of the branch the base already commits to for phase and rival sync: (lp_arb, sd 0) when pi > thr, else the cut retail posterior mean/var, provided that branch has posterior weight >= q. The lattice belief update (full mixture carried forward), pi, threshold, phase logic, rival clip (uses base mixture mean) and tables are unchanged. q > 1 reproduces the base exactly.",
  "why_distinct": "No new likelihood, classifier, price/rival inference, history feature or posterior integration. It changes only which statistic of the existing posterior is handed to the tables, making price input consistent with the phase/rival-sync branch the base already chose. Its objective is edge via table consistency (tables were solved for a unimodal belief per phase), not RMS; it is expected to raise RMS when wrong, which it does at q=0.",
  "signal_or_objective_difference": "The moment-matched mean of a bimodal belief lies between the modes, where the price almost surely is not, and its sd is inflated; the tables were built for unimodal Gaussian-like beliefs per phase. Committing removes that mismatch but loses the hedge the inflated sd gives when the commitment is wrong.",
  "outcome_interpretation": "The hedge dominates: committing at every ambiguous call (q=0) costs -2.93 on tuning; committing only when the chosen branch is >=0.9 likely is +0.012 se 0.006 on the holdout, far below the +0.3 bar. Moment-matched sd is doing real risk work for the misread trades."
 },
 "base": {
  "policy": "thrpol:ThrLattice",
  "thr": 0.9,
  "qm": "qm_k1e-5.json",
  "thrpol_sha256": "663965707d4f20f81ab0ade8ed510742a330605fd9e889d426db1d920abc8958",
  "rival_policy_modification": "not used",
  "needs_flag": false,
  "oraclearb": "unset"
 },
 "frozen_settings": {
  "q": 0.9,
  "thr": 0.9,
  "hard": 0.999,
  "qm": "qm_k1e-5.json",
  "selection": "highest tuning paired mean of 4 settings, frozen before confirmation and holdout; not reselected"
 },
 "tuning": {
  "seeds": "63000..63255",
  "n_per_arm": 256,
  "reference": "fresh unchanged base on same seeds",
  "settings": [
   {
    "q": 0.0,
    "paired": {
     "n": 256,
     "mean_diff": -2.928002783772933,
     "se": 0.05111725337231086,
     "sum": -749.5687126458708,
     "sumsq": 2365.3141933634424,
     "worst5": [
      [
       63028,
       -5.841209987866364
      ],
      [
       63200,
       -5.376461861140115
      ],
      [
       63126,
       -4.900709657735433
      ],
      [
       63101,
       -4.697493630616577
      ],
      [
       63162,
       -4.653169888403568
      ]
     ]
    },
    "callback_price_RMS_bps": 17.491681137520818,
    "first_trade_misread_rate": 0.29153597573330936
   },
   {
    "q": 0.7,
    "paired": {
     "n": 256,
     "mean_diff": -0.1601789095261874,
     "se": 0.021853806537317333,
     "sum": -41.005800838703976,
     "sumsq": 37.74526525452146,
     "worst5": [
      [
       63021,
       -1.3162026122214456
      ],
      [
       63028,
       -1.0980919356615004
      ],
      [
       63196,
       -0.9843630559749954
      ],
      [
       63012,
       -0.934201061384897
      ],
      [
       63195,
       -0.9118252514535357
      ]
     ]
    },
    "callback_price_RMS_bps": 13.516756590208987,
    "first_trade_misread_rate": 0.2851938407726998
   },
   {
    "q": 0.9,
    "paired": {
     "n": 256,
     "mean_diff": 0.028692966505466933,
     "se": 0.015968263183450418,
     "sum": 7.345399425399535,
     "sumsq": 16.856210111065103,
     "worst5": [
      [
       63204,
       -0.8017648981256116
      ],
      [
       63195,
       -0.6896270910484645
      ],
      [
       63028,
       -0.6101831752599765
      ],
      [
       63126,
       -0.5823025555155255
      ],
      [
       63247,
       -0.5419270133741065
      ]
     ]
    },
    "callback_price_RMS_bps": 13.205868131634853,
    "first_trade_misread_rate": 0.2860808416746077
   },
   {
    "q": 0.97,
    "paired": {
     "n": 256,
     "mean_diff": 0.00621709032615847,
     "se": 0.012130478808056245,
     "sum": 1.5915751234965683,
     "sumsq": 9.615750098140811,
     "worst5": [
      [
       63126,
       -0.5879593096282179
      ],
      [
       63020,
       -0.5580112154692642
      ],
      [
       63135,
       -0.47347298598299403
      ],
      [
       63022,
       -0.4220781135074958
      ],
      [
       63143,
       -0.40151892642779785
      ]
     ]
    },
    "callback_price_RMS_bps": 13.184744258786424,
    "first_trade_misread_rate": 0.2883637778467253
   }
  ],
  "base_diag": {
   "n_runs": 256,
   "mean_edge": 527.1685303252768,
   "first_trades": 1800460,
   "first_misread": 520809,
   "first_trade_misread_rate": 0.28926441020628063,
   "callbacks": 2803968,
   "callback_price_RMS_bps": 13.191877082504835
  }
 },
 "confirmation": {
  "seeds": "63256..63511",
  "n_per_arm": 256,
  "paired_vs_base": {
   "n": 256,
   "mean_diff": 0.019031222118899294,
   "se": 0.015281436887664543,
   "sum": 4.871992862438219,
   "sumsq": 15.337056593924071,
   "worst5": [
    [
     63464,
     -0.6490445704052945
    ],
    [
     63501,
     -0.5465351886887788
    ],
    [
     63431,
     -0.49031043956961184
    ],
    [
     63440,
     -0.4738051042334632
    ],
    [
     63325,
     -0.4633637380086384
    ]
   ]
  },
  "cand_diag": {
   "n_runs": 256,
   "mean_edge": 529.172987795045,
   "first_trades": 1809509,
   "first_misread": 518423,
   "first_trade_misread_rate": 0.2864992658229387,
   "callbacks": 2827645,
   "callback_price_RMS_bps": 13.278192782154973
  },
  "base_diag": {
   "n_runs": 256,
   "mean_edge": 529.1539565729261,
   "first_trades": 1806420,
   "first_misread": 523080,
   "first_trade_misread_rate": 0.28956721028332283,
   "callbacks": 2820614,
   "callback_price_RMS_bps": 13.271076356252479
  },
  "used_to_reselect": false
 },
 "holdout": {
  "seeds": "10000..12047",
  "n_per_arm_completed": 2048,
  "scored_once": true,
  "runner": "unchanged run.py (Blind), chunks 10000+1024 and 11024+1024 per arm, PROCS=4, plain Python",
  "paired_vs_fresh_unchanged_base": {
   "n": 2048,
   "mean_diff": 0.011720349604523894,
   "se": 0.006276451740734365,
   "sum": 24.003275990064935,
   "sumsq": 165.43041594514273,
   "worst5": [
    [
     11280,
     -1.422715293897454
    ],
    [
     11137,
     -1.3459718072932674
    ],
    [
     11483,
     -1.338130064145048
    ],
    [
     11857,
     -1.0834486906360326
    ],
    [
     10087,
     -1.076205873098388
    ]
   ]
  },
  "paired_vs_ref_lattice_qm": {
   "n": 2048,
   "mean_diff": 0.3346122694150151,
   "se": 0.011463332556417224,
   "sum": 685.2859277619509,
   "sumsq": 780.2010278423562,
   "worst5": [
    [
     10942,
     -2.0604235725927538
    ],
    [
     11487,
     -1.9157981284697598
    ],
    [
     11857,
     -1.6188263312791378
    ],
    [
     10982,
     -1.4631714371523685
    ],
    [
     10235,
     -1.3855197800287442
    ]
   ]
  },
  "fresh_base_vs_ref_lattice_qm": {
   "n": 2048,
   "mean_diff": 0.3228919198104912,
   "se": 0.01069159987528695,
   "sum": 661.282651771886,
   "sumsq": 692.7408990952625,
   "worst5": [
    [
     11487,
     -1.9115248303883163
    ],
    [
     10942,
     -1.6076924222966227
    ],
    [
     10982,
     -1.4457581244053017
    ],
    [
     11380,
     -1.2365145499310302
    ],
    [
     10990,
     -1.1504964526710637
    ]
   ]
  },
  "note": "Fresh base reproduces the inherited +0.32289 over lattice_qm exactly; candidate vs lattice_qm (+0.3346) is that inherited gain plus +0.0117; only +0.0117 is new.",
  "diagnostics": {
   "candidate": {
    "n_runs": 2048,
    "mean_edge": 534.1555366435764,
    "first_trades": 14494298,
    "first_misread": 4140307,
    "first_trade_misread_rate": 0.2856507434854727,
    "callbacks": 22688730,
    "callback_price_RMS_bps": 13.287869699745231
   },
   "fresh_base": {
    "n_runs": 2048,
    "mean_edge": 534.1438162939719,
    "first_trades": 14472181,
    "first_misread": 4180058,
    "first_trade_misread_rate": 0.28883400504733875,
    "callbacks": 22636622,
    "callback_price_RMS_bps": 13.277152756808208
   },
   "lattice_qm_ref": {
    "n_runs": 2048,
    "mean_edge": 533.8209243741613,
    "first_trades": 14315685,
    "first_misread": 2322695,
    "first_trade_misread_rate": 0.162248261260289,
    "callbacks": 22263118,
    "callback_price_RMS_bps": 13.64283973652866
   }
  }
 },
 "checks": {
  "zero_change_equivalence": "q=2 vs unchanged ThrLattice on seeds 63000..63003: every callback identical in (bid_fee, ask_fee), m, v, is_arb, synced (41,329 callbacks) and identical run result dicts: PASS",
  "hidden_input_independence": "Candidate q=0 run through run.Blind vs a wrapper that drops arb flag, true price, rival spot and order index before calling the policy, seeds 63000..63003: identical results: PASS. The policy reads only is_buy, amount_x, amount_y, timestamp, reserve_x, reserve_y; no seed, flag, price, rival or run parameter; needs_flag False.",
  "tuning_budget": "4 settings (q=0, 0.7, 0.9, 0.97), all on 63000..63255 only",
  "command_time": "every command <= 350 s",
  "acceleration": "none used; plain stdlib Python",
  "limitations": [
   "Replica only; no engine seeds, no Solidity port, gas not measured.",
   "Holdout gain +0.0117 se 0.0063 is ~1.9 se, not significant at conventional levels, and 25x below the promotion bar.",
   "Misread rate is unchanged by design (the phase decision is the base's); the small misread difference is from changed trade paths."
  ]
 },
 "gas_estimate": {
  "measured": false,
  "label": "ESTIMATE ONLY, unmeasured",
  "incremental_operations": "On ambiguous first trades only: one extra moments pass over the retail posterior cells (<=121 cells; per cell 2 mul, 2 add for sum and sum of squares, plus one division and one sqrt-free variance) and one compare/select; same-step and non-ambiguous calls add 0.",
  "incremental_gas_range_estimate": [
   15000,
   45000
  ],
  "incremental_persistent_storage_slots": 0,
  "note": "Base lattice itself (121 cells) is not known to fit 245,000 gas or 32 slots; no total claimed."
 },
 "conclusion": {
  "incremental_gain_over_unchanged_base": 0.011720349604523894,
  "se": 0.006276451740734365,
  "promotion_bar": 0.3,
  "promote_to_track_A": false
 },
 "provenance": {
  "solved_commit": "e65314f88de945f6d055bfc2aab01c482ab6570e",
  "base_artifact": "c9d678abb0ed0ee3a31b13a8203b6ee993896db0b6a3875c5c4f52a369bf0434",
  "se_definition": "sample sd of per-seed differences / sqrt(n)",
  "all_numbers": "own blind replica runs in this item; nothing imputed"
 },
 "code_zb64": "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",
 "code_sha256_uncompressed_tar": "dfff51a7a3a383fd0367aaf6ae34593948a72c7bc9375215fea1bfd0752efd7c",
 "code_files_sha256": {
  "commitpol.py": "2816200f36ff29a9ac29b8f67123792d050c532d3eeaf3e00d261cae6af3d791",
  "zc.py": "a9091fc790ee614a78e8e6a699f59805a846a3f63cb0de7010f8d6d13e1c3436",
  "stat.py": "098b955214ddee260b69a3bc16c3e3b3e5d847a6d3f2885ee4b5e333c18a7bd9",
  "REPRODUCE.md": "7308483c8f6bad17df22eff9f284b1f7562388302a5532cc35310f87b93ea6eb"
 }
}