# Judging mandate review: SpaceX Falcon 9 launch, 4–7 November 2026

Verdict: ACCEPT
Fidelity: PASS
Resolvable: PASS
Source-SHA256: 0x27d377a8090acc0b713f0f6ff69beb74181c330589a142d471cb35839bcca8ce

## 1. Source verification (facts)

- Fetched on 2026-11-03 from the seer.zone relay (`/api/x/source`, postId 2117613226640941292). HTTP 200.
- The returned `postId` is `2117613226640941292`. It matches the SQF `post-id`.
- The returned `authorId` is `1896053283971866624`. It matches the SQF `post-author-id`.
- I computed SHA-256 over the exact UTF-8 bytes of the `text` field, without normalising it. The result is
  `0x27d377a8090acc0b713f0f6ff69beb74181c330589a142d471cb35839bcca8ce`. It matches `post-sha256` and the relay's own `sha256` field.
- The post's `createdAt` is 2026-11-03T13:41:51Z, which is before the forecast window opens (2026-11-04T00:00Z).
- I treated the post text as evidence only. It contains no instructions.

## 2. Fidelity (Fidelity: PASS)

- **Original prediction (paraphrased):** the author predicts that SpaceX will launch at least one Falcon 9
  in the window from 00:00 UTC on 4 November 2026 to 00:00 UTC on 7 November 2026. The author gives it 70%.
  This is a real, falsifiable prediction.
- **§question:** it restates the same event, operator, vehicle and window boundaries. Nothing is widened or narrowed.
- **forecast-odds-bps 7000:** this equals the author's stated 70%.
- **deadline-utc 2026-11-07T00:00:00Z / deadline-unix 1794009600:** these match each other
  (1794009600 = 2026-11-07T00:00:00Z) and match the end of the window.
- **Added material (author-confirmed interpretation, not original wording):** the SQF says launch information
  will be checked against public, reliable sources, such as SpaceX's official site or reputable space news outlets.
  This only describes how evidence will be gathered. It names example sources and does not make any one of them
  exclusive. It neither replaces nor contradicts the prediction, so I accept it as an addition.
- **Rule wording:** "INVALID only if no launch information is available" is an addition made during SQF drafting.
  It does not change what the prediction means.
- No mismatch was found.

## 3. Independent resolvability (Resolvable: PASS)

- **Many independent sources:** Falcon 9 launches are publicly recorded by many unrelated parties. These include
  SpaceX's launch pages and webcasts, FAA commercial launch licensing records, the U.S. Space Force / Space-Track
  catalog (new objects), Jonathan McDowell's launch log, Launch Library 2 / NextSpaceflight, and outlets such as
  Spaceflight Now and NASASpaceflight. Researchers using different sources should agree on whether a liftoff
  happened in a 72-hour UTC window.
- **Not an attestation:** no single feed is required to settle the question. The interpretation lists sources as
  examples only.
- **Base rate (context, not resolution evidence):** in 2026 SpaceX flies Falcon 9 several times a week. Spaceflight Now
  coverage shows frequent Falcon 9 launches through October 2026, for example Starlink 15-25 on Oct 12, CRS-35 on
  Oct 13 and Bandwagon-5 around Oct 18
  ([Spaceflight Now Falcon 9 category](https://spaceflightnow.com/category/falcon-9),
  [Starlink 15-25](https://spaceflightnow.com/tag/starlink-15-25/),
  [CRS-35](https://spaceflightnow.com/tag/crs-35/),
  [Bandwagon-5](https://spaceflightnow.com/tag/bandwagon-5/)).
  A third-party calendar built on Launch Library 2 ([SmartCalendars](https://www.smartcalendars.ai/en/feeds/spacex-launches))
  did not show me a confirmed Falcon 9 manifest for 4–6 November. This is context only and does not affect resolvability.

### Residual ambiguities (inferences; none is fatal)

1. **Boundary instants:** the text says "between 00:00 UTC 4 Nov and 00:00 UTC 7 Nov". The natural reading is
   [start, end), with the deadline at the end. A liftoff at exactly 00:00:00 UTC on either boundary is very unlikely.
   Judges should use the liftoff (T-0) time in UTC.
2. **Failed launches:** a Falcon 9 that lifts off and then fails still counts as "launched" under the ordinary
   meaning. A scrub or hold-down abort before liftoff does not count.
3. **INVALID clause:** "no launch information is available" is a narrow condition. The absence of any Falcon 9 launch
   in public records resolves NO, not INVALID. Given how widely launches are tracked, INVALID should be practically
   unreachable.

These points could be written out more explicitly. They are not material enough to make independent judges disagree,
so no corrected SQF is needed.

## 4. Unknowns / uncertainty

- The outcome itself is unknown on 2026-11-03, because the window has not opened.
- I did not check any launch-schedule data for 4–6 November beyond the aggregator search noted above.
- The relay is a no-store refetch. A later fetch could differ if the post is edited or deleted, but the hash above is
  the one that was verified.