{
 "item": "h2",
 "blocked": null,
 "forks": [
  {
   "fork": "sisyphusSmiling/amm-challenge",
   "branches": [
    "main",
    "v1/pipeline-cmds",
    "v1/pipeline-tests",
    "v1/pipeline-types"
   ],
   "candidate_files": 0,
   "finding": "No such file: main holds only upstream contracts (identical blobs), and the three v1/pipeline-* branches hold only contracts/CumulativeMerkleDrop.sol and an interface, which do not define afterSwap."
  },
  {
   "fork": "solosage1/amm-challenge",
   "branches": [
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    "cleanup-pre-public",
    "codex/increase-sims-default-1000",
    "codex/security-hardening-upstream",
    "normalizer-30bps",
    "rename-im-to-edge",
    "rescale-gbm-dt"
   ],
   "candidate_files": 159,
   "unique_by_sha256": 155,
   "kept": 80,
   "finding": "All 159 afterSwap .sol files that differ from upstream are on main (head 99dc1cfd0963c274df5f2145e8a282a78226fe9e); the other six branches only carry upstream .sol blobs. 155 unique by content; 50 most recently committed skipped, next 80 kept (files 51-130), 25 oldest not examined. 77 of 80 validate; 3 OOG in afterInitialize. None beats RS2: best d32 = -2.24, best 256-seed paired = -2.03."
  }
 ],
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 "top3": [
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    "se": 0.057
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   "mechanism": "It adds the activity (actEma) fee term only when estimated arrival rate lambdaHat >= 0.95 and mean trade size sizeHat >= 0.3% of reserves, and scales that term linearly down to zero as smoothed toxicity rises from 12 bps to the toxicity cap, to avoid double-widening in stress; RS2 adds its activity term unconditionally. Its tail compression has three cases (0.82 protect / 0.96 attract when fees differ, 0.90 symmetric when equal) and its stale overlay is ungated. Unlike the other two it loses on both components on 256 seeds (retail -1.43, arb -0.81), net -2.24 vs RS2."
  }
 ],
 "code": {
  "sha256": "1235d6641ab3fbfd0ef54f8326ee8cfae24894ecbbb39ce8e5bd926810f5c5e6",
  "url": "https://github.com/solosage1/amm-challenge/blob/99dc1cfd0963c274df5f2145e8a282a78226fe9e/contracts/src/TmpDirectionalSkewMod_v16.sol",
  "path": "contracts/src/TmpDirectionalSkewMod_v16.sol",
  "author": "solosage1 (GitHub user; commit dee8cbf998a81fcfc4e3d4d64be2a11f0f011461, 2026-02-12)",
  "licence": "No LICENSE file in the fork; its pyproject.toml declares license = {text = \"MIT\"} (inherited from upstream). The best file itself has no SPDX header.",
  "source": "pragma solidity ^0.8.24;\n\nimport {AMMStrategyBase} from \"./AMMStrategyBase.sol\";\nimport {TradeInfo} from \"./IAMMStrategy.sol\";\n\ncontract Strategy is AMMStrategyBase {\n    // ITERATION_POLICY {\"decision\":\"continue\",\"hypothesis_id\":\"H_DIR_STALE_006\",\"confidence\":0.69,\"ceiling_probability\":0.29,\"ev_next_5\":0.10,\"best_delta_seen\":0.15,\"reason\":\"Gate stale-sign overlay behind a tight mispricing band to reduce unnecessary calm-state asymmetry while preserving stale defense when dislocation is real.\",\"next_mechanism\":\"directional_skew_and_stale_protection\"}\n\n    uint256 constant ELAPSED_CAP = 8;\n    uint256 constant SIGNAL_THRESHOLD = WAD / 700;\n    uint256 constant DIR_DECAY = 850000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant ACT_DECAY = 700000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant SIZE_DECAY = 600000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant TOX_DECAY = 900000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant SIGMA_DECAY = 650000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant LAMBDA_DECAY = 994000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant SIZE_BLEND_DECAY = 800000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant TOX_BLEND_DECAY = 100000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant ACT_BLEND_DECAY = 993000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant PHAT_ALPHA_ARB = 340000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant PHAT_ALPHA_RETAIL = 120000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant PHAT_SHOCK_GATE = 30000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant DIR_IMPACT_MULT = 1;\n    uint256 constant ARB_MAX_RATIO = WAD / 360;\n    uint256 constant SIGMA_RETAIL_DECAY = 999000000000000000;\n\n    uint256 constant RET_CAP = WAD / 10;\n    uint256 constant TOX_CAP = WAD / 5;\n    uint256 constant TRADE_RATIO_CAP = WAD / 5;\n    uint256 constant LAMBDA_CAP = 5 * WAD;\n    uint256 constant STEP_COUNT_CAP = 64;\n\n    uint256 constant BASE_FEE = 3 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant SIGMA_COEF = 200000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant LAMBDA_COEF = 12 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant FLOW_SIZE_COEF = 6800 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant TOX_COEF = 180 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant TOX_QUAD_COEF = 19000 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant TOX_QUAD_KNEE = 12 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant ACT_COEF = 42000 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant DIR_COEF = 90 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant DIR_TOX_COEF = 20 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant STALE_DIR_COEF = 6900 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant STALE_MISPRICING_BAND = 3 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant TAIL_KNEE = 700 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant TAIL_SLOPE_PROTECT = 820000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant TAIL_SLOPE_ATTRACT = 940000000000000000;\n\n    function afterInitialize(uint256 initialX, uint256 initialY) external override returns (uint256, uint256) {\n        slots[0] = BASE_FEE;\n        slots[1] = BASE_FEE;\n        slots[2] = 0;\n        slots[3] = WAD;\n        slots[4] = 0;\n        slots[5] = initialX > 0 ? wdiv(initialY, initialX) : 100 * WAD;\n        slots[6] = 950000000000000;\n        slots[7] = 800000000000000000;\n        slots[8] = 2000000000000000;\n        slots[9] = 0;\n        slots[10] = 0;\n        return (BASE_FEE, BASE_FEE);\n    }\n\n    function afterSwap(TradeInfo calldata trade) external override returns (uint256, uint256) {\n        uint256 prevBidFee = slots[0];\n        uint256 prevAskFee = slots[1];\n        uint256 lastTs = slots[2];\n        uint256 dirState = slots[3];\n        uint256 actEma = slots[4];\n        uint256 pHat = slots[5];\n        uint256 sigmaHat = slots[6];\n        uint256 lambdaHat = slots[7];\n        uint256 sizeHat = slots[8];\n        uint256 toxEma = slots[9];\n        uint256 stepTradeCount = slots[10];\n\n        bool isNewStep = trade.timestamp > lastTs;\n        if (isNewStep) {\n            uint256 elapsedRaw = trade.timestamp - lastTs;\n            uint256 elapsed = elapsedRaw > ELAPSED_CAP ? ELAPSED_CAP : elapsedRaw;\n\n            dirState = _decayCentered(dirState, DIR_DECAY, elapsed);\n            actEma = wmul(actEma, _powWad(ACT_DECAY, elapsed));\n            sizeHat = wmul(sizeHat, _powWad(SIZE_DECAY, elapsed));\n            toxEma = wmul(toxEma, _powWad(TOX_DECAY, elapsed));\n\n            if (stepTradeCount > 0 && elapsedRaw > 0) {\n                uint256 lambdaInst = (stepTradeCount * WAD) / elapsedRaw;\n                if (lambdaInst > LAMBDA_CAP) lambdaInst = LAMBDA_CAP;\n                lambdaHat = wmul(lambdaHat, LAMBDA_DECAY) + wmul(lambdaInst, WAD - LAMBDA_DECAY);\n            }\n\n            stepTradeCount = 0;\n        }\n\n        bool firstInStep = stepTradeCount == 0;\n\n        uint256 spot = trade.reserveX > 0 ? wdiv(trade.reserveY, trade.reserveX) : pHat;\n        if (pHat == 0) pHat = spot;\n\n        uint256 feeUsed = trade.isBuy ? prevBidFee : prevAskFee;\n        uint256 gamma = feeUsed < WAD ? WAD - feeUsed : 0;\n        uint256 pImplied;\n        if (gamma == 0) {\n            pImplied = spot;\n        } else {\n            pImplied = trade.isBuy ? wmul(spot, gamma) : wdiv(spot, gamma);\n        }\n\n        uint256 tradeRatio = trade.reserveY > 0 ? wdiv(trade.amountY, trade.reserveY) : 0;\n        if (tradeRatio > TRADE_RATIO_CAP) tradeRatio = TRADE_RATIO_CAP;\n        bool likelyArb = firstInStep && tradeRatio <= ARB_MAX_RATIO;\n\n        if (firstInStep) {\n            uint256 ret = pHat > 0 ? wdiv(absDiff(pImplied, pHat), pHat) : 0;\n            if (likelyArb) {\n                if (ret <= PHAT_SHOCK_GATE) {\n                    pHat = wmul(pHat, WAD - PHAT_ALPHA_ARB) + wmul(pImplied, PHAT_ALPHA_ARB);\n                }\n                if (ret > RET_CAP) ret = RET_CAP;\n                sigmaHat = wmul(sigmaHat, SIGMA_DECAY) + wmul(ret, WAD - SIGMA_DECAY);\n            } else {\n                if (ret <= PHAT_SHOCK_GATE) {\n                    pHat = wmul(pHat, WAD - PHAT_ALPHA_RETAIL) + wmul(pImplied, PHAT_ALPHA_RETAIL);\n                }\n                sigmaHat = wmul(sigmaHat, SIGMA_RETAIL_DECAY);\n            }\n        }\n\n        if (tradeRatio > SIGNAL_THRESHOLD) {\n            uint256 push = tradeRatio * DIR_IMPACT_MULT;\n            if (push > WAD / 4) push = WAD / 4;\n\n            if (trade.isBuy) {\n                dirState = dirState + push;\n                if (dirState > 2 * WAD) dirState = 2 * WAD;\n            } else {\n                dirState = dirState > push ? dirState - push : 0;\n            }\n\n            actEma = wmul(actEma, ACT_BLEND_DECAY) + wmul(tradeRatio, WAD - ACT_BLEND_DECAY);\n\n            sizeHat = wmul(sizeHat, SIZE_BLEND_DECAY) + wmul(tradeRatio, WAD - SIZE_BLEND_DECAY);\n            if (sizeHat > WAD) sizeHat = WAD;\n        }\n\n        uint256 tox = pHat > 0 ? wdiv(absDiff(spot, pHat), pHat) : 0;\n        if (tox > TOX_CAP) tox = TOX_CAP;\n        toxEma = wmul(toxEma, TOX_BLEND_DECAY) + wmul(tox, WAD - TOX_BLEND_DECAY);\n        uint256 toxSignal = toxEma;\n\n        uint256 flowSize = wmul(lambdaHat, sizeHat);\n        uint256 fBase = BASE_FEE + wmul(SIGMA_COEF, sigmaHat) + wmul(LAMBDA_COEF, lambdaHat) + wmul(FLOW_SIZE_COEF, flowSize);\n\n        uint256 toxExcess = toxSignal > TOX_QUAD_KNEE ? toxSignal - TOX_QUAD_KNEE : 0;\n        uint256 fMid = fBase\n            + wmul(TOX_COEF, toxSignal)\n            + wmul(TOX_QUAD_COEF, wmul(toxExcess, toxExcess))\n            + wmul(ACT_COEF, actEma);\n\n        uint256 dirDev;\n        bool sellPressure;\n        if (dirState >= WAD) {\n            dirDev = dirState - WAD;\n            sellPressure = true;\n        } else {\n            dirDev = WAD - dirState;\n            sellPressure = false;\n        }\n\n        uint256 skew = wmul(DIR_COEF, dirDev) + wmul(DIR_TOX_COEF, wmul(dirDev, toxSignal));\n\n        uint256 bidFee;\n        uint256 askFee;\n        if (sellPressure) {\n            bidFee = fMid + skew;\n            askFee = fMid > skew ? fMid - skew : 0;\n        } else {\n            askFee = fMid + skew;\n            bidFee = fMid > skew ? fMid - skew : 0;\n        }\n\n        if (STALE_DIR_COEF > 0 && tox > STALE_MISPRICING_BAND) {\n            uint256 staleShift = wmul(STALE_DIR_COEF, toxSignal);\n            if (spot >= pHat) {\n                bidFee = bidFee + staleShift;\n                askFee = askFee > staleShift ? askFee - staleShift : 0;\n            } else {\n                askFee = askFee + staleShift;\n                bidFee = bidFee > staleShift ? bidFee - staleShift : 0;\n            }\n        }\n\n        bool bidProtectSide = bidFee >= askFee;\n        bidFee = clampFee(_compressTail(bidFee, bidProtectSide));\n        askFee = clampFee(_compressTail(askFee, !bidProtectSide));\n\n        stepTradeCount = stepTradeCount + 1;\n        if (stepTradeCount > STEP_COUNT_CAP) stepTradeCount = STEP_COUNT_CAP;\n\n        slots[0] = bidFee;\n        slots[1] = askFee;\n        slots[2] = trade.timestamp;\n        slots[3] = dirState;\n        slots[4] = actEma;\n        slots[5] = pHat;\n        slots[6] = sigmaHat;\n        slots[7] = lambdaHat;\n        slots[8] = sizeHat;\n        slots[9] = toxEma;\n        slots[10] = stepTradeCount;\n\n        return (bidFee, askFee);\n    }\n\n    function _compressTail(uint256 fee, bool protectSide) internal pure returns (uint256) {\n        if (fee <= TAIL_KNEE) return fee;\n        uint256 slope = protectSide ? TAIL_SLOPE_PROTECT : TAIL_SLOPE_ATTRACT;\n        return TAIL_KNEE + wmul(fee - TAIL_KNEE, slope);\n    }\n\n    function _powWad(uint256 factor, uint256 exp) internal pure returns (uint256 result) {\n        result = WAD;\n        while (exp > 0) {\n            if ((exp & 1) == 1) result = wmul(result, factor);\n            factor = wmul(factor, factor);\n            exp >>= 1;\n        }\n    }\n\n    function _decayCentered(uint256 centered, uint256 decayFactor, uint256 elapsed) internal pure returns (uint256) {\n        uint256 mul = _powWad(decayFactor, elapsed);\n        if (centered >= WAD) {\n            return WAD + wmul(centered - WAD, mul);\n        }\n        uint256 below = wmul(WAD - centered, mul);\n        return below < WAD ? WAD - below : 0;\n    }\n\n    function getName() external pure override returns (string memory) {\n        return \"directional_skew_and_stale_protection_mod_v16\";\n    }\n}\n"
 },
 "notes": [
  "Result: neither fork contains a fee rule that beats RS2. All 77 valid files are below RS2 on seeds 900000..900031 (range -2.24 to -349.7); the top 3 confirmed on 901000..901255 at -2.03 +/- 0.07, -2.19 +/- 0.07, -2.24 +/- 0.06 (paired mean edge vs RS2, SE).",
  "The solosage1 files are an automated iteration log of one family (EMA fair-price estimate pHat, sigma/lambda/flow-size base fee, toxicity linear+quadratic, activity EMA, directional skew, stale-sign overlay, tail compression) - the same family RS2 descends from; RS2 adds a censored posterior fair-price update and beats every variant here.",
  "Selection order: by date of the last commit touching each path on main. 131 of the files share one commit (dee8cbf, 2026-02-12 10:47 -0500), so within that commit ties were broken by path ascending; the kept 80 all come from that commit. Duplicates (same sha256 at several paths) were kept once at their first path in that order, others listed under duplicate_paths.",
  "'Differs from upstream' = git blob not among any .sol blob on any upstream branch (benedictbrady/amm-challenge, all 7 branch heads + history). solosage1's StarterStrategy.sol differs from upstream's but is among the 50 skipped.",
  "Scoring used the harness_source of artifact 33f54e81... unchanged (run(): each strategy alone vs VanillaStrategy, run_batch(...,8), 20-seed chunks, gas_stats per arm; compare() for paired/retail/arb deltas). d32 = mean over seeds 900000..900031 of (candidate edge - RS2 edge). oog counts Submission-role OOG halts from gas_stats; gas.max_ok = max ok gas of the Submission afterSwap callback. No seed >= 5000000 used.",
  "arb_edge_delta > 0 means the candidate loses less to arbitrage than RS2; retail_edge_delta < 0 means it earns less from retail.",
  "The 3 invalid files (TmpWildcard_v100_candidate, TmpWildcard_v130, TmpWildcard_v160_candidate) run out of gas in afterInitialize under validate and were not scored.",
  "The goal-level CH calibration check (seeds 0..999) was not run for this item; the item brief does not require it. Fork scripts were never executed; only .sol files were read and compiled/simulated."
 ]
}