# Merge 1: twenty strategy and measurement results Cash planning is the leading candidate in these supplied results: `combine-cash` has the highest absolute holdout, with a positive paired comparison recorded by its author. This is a local candidate ranking, not a verified move to first on Paradigm; no new simulations, external source verification, or public submission were performed for this merge. [S9] All twenty input files were present and parseable, and all have `blocked: null`. The measurement-only items true-mean, oracle-bound, draw-variance and ablation-map returned the base unchanged; draw-variance nevertheless left its larger measurement plan incomplete. Claims below are attributed reports from these artifacts, not independently reproduced experiments. [S1], [S2], [S3], [S4] The table copies the top-level numeric fields exactly, including differing base reproductions. Base means refer to seeds 0–599; evaluation total/retail/arb are seeds 1000–1599; every table holdout is 600 simulations starting at 30000, and every top-level evaluation and holdout reports zero failures. Arbitrage edge is signed (negative means loss); Python is the item-reported version, and code bytes are computed as the UTF-8 length of its decoded `code` string, excluding JSON escaping. Lane labels group the stated directions; no strategy code is reproduced. [S1], [S2], [S3], [S4], [S5], [S6], [S7], [S8], [S9], [S10], [S11], [S12], [S13], [S14], [S15], [S16], [S17], [S18], [S19], [S20] | Key / source | Lane / direction | Reproduced base | 1000–1599 total | Retail | Arbitrage | Holdout total | Python | Code bytes | |---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---:| | true-mean [S1] | Measure / independent true mean | 102.33197908899267 | 107.2442092237515 | 135.80165652288784 | -28.557447299150834 | 96.0405203261775 | 3.12.3 | 13882 | | oracle-bound [S2] | Measure / hidden-information value | 102.33197908899267 | 107.2442092237515 | 135.80165652288784 | -28.557447299150834 | 96.0405203261775 | 3.12.3 | 13882 | | draw-variance [S3] | Measure / draw variance | 102.33197908899267 | 107.2442092237515 | 135.80165652288784 | -28.557447299150834 | 96.0405203261775 | 3.12.3 | 13882 | | ablation-map [S4] | Remove & measure / component ablations | 102.33197908899267 | 107.2442092237515 | 135.80165652288784 | -28.557447299150834 | 96.0405203261775 | 3.13.5 | 13882 | | leaders-gap [S5] | Measure & modify / stock-overpayment gate | 102.33197908899267 | 108.02413592598784 | 131.2171054050378 | -23.192969479067667 | 95.524825093741 | 3.12.3 | 13988 | | combine-belief [S6] | Combine / latent belief | 102.331987422326 | 107.7287098973095 | 134.15892612772782 | -26.430216230414665 | 94.98058276501934 | 3.14.4 | 17022 | | combine-overflow [S7] | Combine / overflow and FIFO slices | 102.33197908899267 | 108.42885016453633 | 136.803363239503 | -28.37451307498033 | 96.32372908023733 | 3.12.3 | 16350 | | combine-two-cent [S8] | Combine / scarce-stock two-cent queue | 102.3319790889927 | 107.47676082579723 | 135.99677430634952 | -28.520013480566334 | 96.03782167039321 | 3.10.12 | 16523 | | combine-cash [S9] | Combine / cover bank and cash reserve | 102.33197908899267 | 109.27254289017199 | 135.356137274445 | -26.083594384290333 | 98.12413933736983 | 3.12.3 | 14588 | | combine-constants [S10] | Combine / transfer constants | 102.33197908899267 | 107.45204715775166 | 135.97942233023198 | -28.52737517249417 | 96.458133898515 | 3.12.3 | 13882 | | combine-late-game [S11] | Combine / late-game stock rules | 102.33197908899267 | 109.29650163975117 | 134.38229969436017 | -25.085798054621666 | 97.4026568625055 | 3.12.3 | 13925 | | combine-pair [S12] | Combine / belief plus overflow | 102.33197908899267 | 107.77941648794467 | 137.01055490399065 | -29.231138416059004 | 96.0368042128295 | 3.12.3 | 22855 | | combine-three [S13] | Combine / belief, cash, two-cent | 102.331987422326 | 108.54670913062401 | 136.602853288088 | -28.056144157473664 | 96.739743692969 | 3.14.4 | 20236 | | combine-all [S14] | Combine / sequential six-way graft | 102.331987422326 | 108.82311690588183 | 137.79040742643517 | -28.967290520565 | 95.6841292191785 | 3.14.4 | 15867 | | combine-vote [S15] | Combine / state-dependent adviser vote | 102.331987422326 | 108.21374422633767 | 136.147655910821 | -27.933911684499666 | 96.09686103077634 | 3.14.4 | 30537 | | demand-fit [S16] | Deepen / censored retail-demand fit | 102.331987422326 | 109.14949031033433 | 134.9172763842037 | -25.767786073874166 | 97.23073075564217 | 3.14.4 | 37608 | | tick1-jump-cost [S17] | Deepen / tick-1 jump exposure | 102.331987422326 | 107.83578651840733 | 135.61937036092417 | -27.78358384253083 | 95.50209429163283 | 3.14.4 | 14401 | | tick2-queue [S18] | Deepen / tick-2 FIFO commitment | 102.33197908899267 | 108.30384238668634 | 136.78007252256066 | -28.476230135887167 | 96.33203752220284 | 3.12.3 | 14387 | | mid-jumps [S19] | Deepen / asymmetric mid-price jump loss | 102.33197908899267 | 108.00451371283867 | 135.11283915310833 | -27.108325440305002 | 96.19078601230667 | 3.15.0 | 14745 | | near-tick [S20] | Deepen / spread-1 near-tick rules | 102.33197908899267 | 108.408889148626 | 135.82225180532035 | -27.413362656706333 | 96.77537839876851 | 3.12.3 | 14743 | ## Item findings **true-mean.** Returned the base unchanged and measured an independent reference on seeds 40000-43999: mean 99.23869339150623, retail 127.07987834308194, arbitrage -27.8411849515945, with 4000 simulations and zero failures. Its top-decile share is 0.5265243835574145 and estimated standard error of a 200-run mean is 12.37313011835025, making small unpaired leaderboard gaps weak evidence. Next, keep that reference fixed for paired comparisons and freeze candidates before a different final holdout. [S1] **oracle-bound.** Returned the base unchanged; scratch oracle experiments on 1000-1599 gave +1.05 for retail parameters, +0.33 for jump parameters, +1.93 for current probability, +8.78 for the next jump flag, +15.83 for current probability plus jump flag, +24.34 for next-step probability, and +34.10 for everything together (the detailed tried entries' precision). These are hidden-information interventions in this particular policy, without oracle holdout results; they suggest one-step quote exposure matters, but are neither attainable strategy gains nor rigorous global upper bounds on alternative policies. Next, examine observable signals or state-dependent exposure, while respecting the item's warning that Poisson jumps are memoryless and its parameter-estimation verdict need not apply to a different policy. [S2] **draw-variance.** Returned the base unchanged, but the planned 30 x 200 measurement was incomplete: it reports 3200 simulations for feature analysis and 14 x 200 block means ranging 77.5 to 112.6, with mean 96.9 and sd 10.5. Settlement dominates its diagnostics (NO 173.2 versus YES 18.0), top 20 of 200 carry 51.6% of edge, and actual jump counts were unavailable in the simulator JSON, so jump intensity was only a proxy. Next, compare paired common-seed differences, examine settlement/spread strata without silently changing the target distribution, and instrument actual jumps. [S3] **ablation-map.** Returned the base unchanged after independent component removals: base-minus-disabled worth was 131.861019497087 for probes, 10.569825371544 for the sub-tick filter, 14.2184466903835 for the large tick-1 bid, 11.838959767283 for order retention, 8.569734166729667 for spread-1 rules, 0.02886033333333323 for the last-step rule, and -0.986319175898833 for other YES ammunition. The last two intervals include zero; joint stock deletion costs 24.3924403209095 and the spread-1 decompositions overlap, so conditional marginal gains cannot be summed. Next, independently test removing only the other ammunition while preserving the large tick-1 bid; inactive pre/nb1/gs cleanup is behaviorally neutral. [S4] **leaders-gap.** Added an inferred-lower-bound gate on deliberate low-price stock overpayment while retaining the large tick-1 bid; on the 100-seed diagnostic, planned pre-step loss fell from -8.875961181735567 to -2.641936319512476. Its paired holdout change is -0.5156952324365005 with standard error 0.892493448909843: arbitrage improves but lost retail prevents a demonstrated improvement, and the task flags one external source as unreliable, so neither its external leaderboard framing nor a causal generalization is independently established here. Next, measure the foregone retail sales and use a public-state inventory-demand rule rather than blanket stock caps. [S5] **combine-belief.** Replaced the grid posterior and manual sub-cent decay with a censored latent-score mixture filter, selecting assumed jump sigma=0.4 and posterior sizing weight=2.0. Tuning paired gain 0.48450067355800286 has standard error 1.045146739766478, while holdout paired gain is -1.0599375611583355 with standard error 0.49740626976596103; one external source is flagged, so the filter's provenance is an item claim, while these are its reported local measurements. Next, keep the base pending fresh evidence and run the latent filter in shadow, testing hard probe bounds and price-band loss calibration. [S6] **combine-overflow.** Split main quotes into four FIFO slices and added cash-capped competitor-price overflow on spreads above one tick, retaining the base estimator and stock mechanism. Paired tuning gain is 1.1846409407848328 with standard error 0.31792630781541154, but holdout gain is 0.2832087540598333 with standard error 0.3651905827107454, and direct overflow fill edge was negative despite the total-policy improvement. Next, reserve the same modeled cash without placing overflow to distinguish cash throttling from retail-burst capture, then validate on fresh seeds. [S7] **combine-two-cent.** Kept one-cent sales as default, enabling a retained two-cent queue only under estimated stock scarcity, plus a small stock-backed overflow ask; broad one-cent replacement lost on tuning. Its own holdout base is 96.00139032710622, yielding paired gain 0.036431343287000005 with standard error 0.01989893793084752, rather than a comparison against the other items' 96.0405203261775; only 7 tuning simulations changed, and one external source is flagged, so the claimed graft and tiny lift deserve replication. Next, correct survival-conditioned demand estimates for censoring and replicate before further threshold searches. [S8] **combine-cash.** Added a 50-step immediate-cover target, a separate 2000-step cheap crossing bank, a $200 reserve released over the final 50 steps, a 2.0-cent premium-cover cutoff, and a low-inventory ask charge up to 0.0025. Paired tuning gain is 2.0283336664204996 with standard error 0.35262349203866866 and paired holdout gain is 2.083619011192334 with standard error 0.4067546948632805, the strongest reported absolute candidate holdout in this group. Next, estimate retail flow per run to size the contingency bank and test on a new tuning range and untouched holdout. [S9] **combine-constants.** Transferred only kLb 0.08 -> 0.04 after testing the earlier constants separately on two tuning halves; five of six failed to transfer and all six together lost 1.87 a run. The item reports tuning +0.21±0.08 and holdout +0.42±0.25, supporting at most a modest effect rather than its stronger phrase 'small and real' as a settled true-mean conclusion. Next, test regime-conditional sizing and demand-dependent YES targets instead of another global sweep. [S10] **combine-late-game.** Rejected direct moving-bid grafts and retained small ammunition only at tick 1 below 1c, a large tick-1 bid only for 1c