{
 "item": "kap-3e5",
 "status": "done",
 "kappa": 3e-05,
 "verdict": "negative: kappa 3e-5 loses 0.712 se 0.013 to kappa 1e-5 on the holdout with the tell-read flag; keep qm_k1e-5.json",
 "source_folder": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/gtmcknight/amm-sim/e65314f88de945f6d055bfc2aab01c482ab6570e/research/solved (fetched with fetch.sh, 26 files, 0 sha256 mismatches)",
 "gates_py": "matches README digits for seeds 10000..10002 in all four columns",
 "solver": {
  "converged": true,
  "sweeps": 110,
  "value_per_run": 536.821,
  "command": "DP_STATE=st.npz DP_SWEEPS=30 then 150, DP_SAVEVN=1 DP_AMINL=-12 DP_NA=43 dp.py solve 0.8 9.45 20 (2 commands, 79 s + 183 s on 6 CPUs; printed SOLVED at sweep 110)",
  "control_table_identical": true,
  "control_detail": "regenerated pol_mid tables and qmdp kappa 1e-5 tables: every offset array (A0..B2, A0c..B2c) identical to pol_mid.json and qm_k1e-5.json; the files are not byte-identical only because scalar g differs at the 15th digit (0.05368206098114671 vs 0.05368206098114493, parallel summation order)",
  "bounded_solve_py_used": false
 },
 "table_change": {
  "vs": "qm_k1e-5.json",
  "cells_total": 1073424,
  "cells_changed": 526780,
  "rms_bps": 3.2866,
  "max_bps": 53.11,
  "per_table_changed_of_total": {
   "A0c": [
    17307,
    33384
   ],
   "B0c": [
    17307,
    33384
   ],
   "A1s": [
    59957,
    125832
   ],
   "B1s": [
    59957,
    125832
   ],
   "A1c": [
    63904,
    125832
   ],
   "B1c": [
    63904,
    125832
   ],
   "A2s": [
    59815,
    125832
   ],
   "B2s": [
    59815,
    125832
   ],
   "A2c": [
    62407,
    125832
   ],
   "B2c": [
    62407,
    125832
   ]
  }
 },
 "policy": "TellGauss = real.py RealPolicy step 2 with the brief's tell: r = min(1, 2*tol/g) when net input is within tol of a multiple of g = min(ulp(z), ulp(z-v)), else 0; pi = 0 if r = 0 else L_arb/(L_arb + r*L_ret); soft=1; unchanged run.py and pair.py; blind (six afterSwap inputs plus own state)",
 "tuning_vs_control": {
  "paired": {
   "n": 256,
   "mean_diff": -0.6796,
   "se": 0.0369,
   "sum": -173.98355,
   "sumsq": 207.105096,
   "worst5": [
    [
     66138,
     -2.962
    ],
    [
     66134,
     -2.604
    ],
    [
     66101,
     -2.588
    ],
    [
     66172,
     -2.34
    ],
    [
     66012,
     -2.256
    ]
   ],
   "seeds": [
    66000,
    66255
   ]
  },
  "candidate": {
   "n": 256,
   "mean_edge": 532.8201,
   "first_trades": 1847973,
   "misread": 1064,
   "misread_rate": 0.000576,
   "price_rms_bps": 6.385
  },
  "reference": {
   "n": 256,
   "mean_edge": 533.4998,
   "first_trades": 1796325,
   "misread": 1166,
   "misread_rate": 0.000649,
   "price_rms_bps": 7.191
  }
 },
 "holdout_vs_control": {
  "paired": {
   "n": 2048,
   "mean_diff": -0.7117,
   "se": 0.0134,
   "sum": -1457.637776,
   "sumsq": 1786.603908,
   "worst5": [
    [
     11025,
     -4.702
    ],
    [
     11540,
     -3.624
    ],
    [
     11254,
     -2.893
    ],
    [
     10825,
     -2.871
    ],
    [
     10217,
     -2.68
    ]
   ],
   "seeds": [
    10000,
    12047
   ]
  },
  "candidate": {
   "n": 2048,
   "mean_edge": 535.8054,
   "first_trades": 14766923,
   "misread": 8979,
   "misread_rate": 0.000608,
   "price_rms_bps": 6.398
  },
  "reference": {
   "n": 2048,
   "mean_edge": 536.5171,
   "first_trades": 14351249,
   "misread": 9364,
   "misread_rate": 0.000652,
   "price_rms_bps": 7.208
  }
 },
 "holdout_vs_flag_qm": {
  "paired": {
   "n": 2048,
   "mean_diff": -0.7375,
   "se": 0.0133,
   "sum": -1510.387152,
   "sumsq": 1858.091715,
   "worst5": [
    [
     11025,
     -4.848
    ],
    [
     11540,
     -3.622
    ],
    [
     11300,
     -2.965
    ],
    [
     11254,
     -2.794
    ],
    [
     11741,
     -2.72
    ]
   ],
   "seeds": [
    10000,
    12047
   ]
  },
  "candidate": {
   "n": 2048,
   "mean_edge": 535.8054,
   "first_trades": 14766923,
   "misread": 8979,
   "misread_rate": 0.000608,
   "price_rms_bps": 6.398
  },
  "reference": {
   "n": 2048,
   "mean_edge": 536.5429,
   "first_trades": 14349512,
   "misread": 0,
   "misread_rate": 0.0,
   "price_rms_bps": 7.112
  }
 },
 "extra": {
  "control_holdout_vs_flag_qm": {
   "paired": {
    "n": 2048,
    "mean_diff": -0.0258,
    "se": 0.0027,
    "sum": -52.749377,
    "sumsq": 32.469655,
    "worst5": [
     [
      10636,
      -0.657
     ],
     [
      11358,
      -0.634
     ],
     [
      10502,
      -0.582
     ],
     [
      11172,
      -0.54
     ],
     [
      11646,
      -0.511
     ]
    ],
    "seeds": [
     10000,
     12047
    ]
   },
   "candidate": {
    "n": 2048,
    "mean_edge": 536.5171,
    "first_trades": 14351249,
    "misread": 9364,
    "misread_rate": 0.000652,
    "price_rms_bps": 7.208
   },
   "reference": {
    "n": 2048,
    "mean_edge": 536.5429,
    "first_trades": 14349512,
    "misread": 0,
    "misread_rate": 0.0,
    "price_rms_bps": 7.112
   }
  },
  "holdout_vs_lattice_qm": {
   "paired": {
    "n": 2048,
    "mean_diff": 1.9844,
    "se": 0.0217,
    "sum": 4064.139517,
    "sumsq": 10033.693701,
    "worst5": [
     [
      10578,
      -2.811
     ],
     [
      10403,
      -2.136
     ],
     [
      10979,
      -1.227
     ],
     [
      10387,
      -0.985
     ],
     [
      10519,
      -0.879
     ]
    ],
    "seeds": [
     10000,
     12047
    ]
   },
   "candidate": {
    "n": 2048,
    "mean_edge": 535.8054,
    "first_trades": 14766923,
    "misread": 8979,
    "misread_rate": 0.000608,
    "price_rms_bps": 6.398
   },
   "reference": {
    "n": 2048,
    "mean_edge": 533.8209,
    "first_trades": 14315685,
    "misread": 2322695,
    "misread_rate": 0.162248,
    "price_rms_bps": 13.643
   }
  },
  "orchestrator_check_66000_66095": {
   "control_vs_gauss_qm": {
    "paired": {
     "n": 96,
     "mean_diff": 2.9788,
     "se": 0.1082,
     "sum": 285.96745,
     "sumsq": 958.666345,
     "worst5": [
      [
       66060,
       0.312
      ],
      [
       66080,
       0.994
      ],
      [
       66023,
       1.242
      ],
      [
       66043,
       1.332
      ],
      [
       66003,
       1.405
      ]
     ],
     "seeds": [
      66000,
      66095
     ]
    },
    "candidate": {
     "n": 96,
     "mean_edge": 529.2256,
     "first_trades": 672163,
     "misread": 456,
     "misread_rate": 0.000678,
     "price_rms_bps": 7.189
    },
    "reference": {
     "n": 96,
     "mean_edge": 526.2468,
     "first_trades": 672858,
     "misread": 115025,
     "misread_rate": 0.17095,
     "price_rms_bps": 14.247
    }
   },
   "control_vs_flag": {
    "paired": {
     "n": 96,
     "mean_diff": -0.0312,
     "se": 0.013,
     "sum": -2.995936,
     "sumsq": 1.63569,
     "worst5": [
      [
       66062,
       -0.561
      ],
      [
       66038,
       -0.359
      ],
      [
       66043,
       -0.288
      ],
      [
       66061,
       -0.28
      ],
      [
       66041,
       -0.26
      ]
     ],
     "seeds": [
      66000,
      66095
     ]
    },
    "candidate": {
     "n": 96,
     "mean_edge": 529.2256,
     "first_trades": 672163,
     "misread": 456,
     "misread_rate": 0.000678,
     "price_rms_bps": 7.189
    },
    "reference": {
     "n": 96,
     "mean_edge": 529.2568,
     "first_trades": 672165,
     "misread": 0,
     "misread_rate": 0.0,
     "price_rms_bps": 7.093
    }
   }
  },
  "supplementary_tuning_only_not_holdout": {
   "kappa_0_vs_1e-5": {
    "paired": {
     "n": 256,
     "mean_diff": -0.1599,
     "se": 0.0312,
     "sum": -40.922968,
     "sumsq": 70.122032,
     "worst5": [
      [
       66101,
       -2.219
      ],
      [
       66004,
       -1.863
      ],
      [
       66192,
       -1.586
      ],
      [
       66214,
       -1.515
      ],
      [
       66136,
       -1.329
      ]
     ],
     "seeds": [
      66000,
      66255
     ]
    },
    "candidate": {
     "n": 256,
     "mean_edge": 533.3399,
     "first_trades": 1765603,
     "misread": 1174,
     "misread_rate": 0.000665,
     "price_rms_bps": 7.679
    },
    "reference": {
     "n": 256,
     "mean_edge": 533.4998,
     "first_trades": 1796325,
     "misread": 1166,
     "misread_rate": 0.000649,
     "price_rms_bps": 7.191
    }
   },
   "kappa_3e-6_vs_1e-5": {
    "paired": {
     "n": 256,
     "mean_diff": -0.0979,
     "se": 0.0258,
     "sum": -25.063371,
     "sumsq": 46.045333,
     "worst5": [
      [
       66192,
       -1.674
      ],
      [
       66004,
       -1.404
      ],
      [
       66132,
       -1.019
      ],
      [
       66214,
       -0.972
      ],
      [
       66136,
       -0.911
      ]
     ],
     "seeds": [
      66000,
      66255
     ]
    },
    "candidate": {
     "n": 256,
     "mean_edge": 533.4019,
     "first_trades": 1775177,
     "misread": 1141,
     "misread_rate": 0.000643,
     "price_rms_bps": 7.523
    },
    "reference": {
     "n": 256,
     "mean_edge": 533.4998,
     "first_trades": 1796325,
     "misread": 1166,
     "misread_rate": 0.000649,
     "price_rms_bps": 7.191
    }
   }
  },
  "vs_HA_holdout": {
   "kappa_3e-5": "+6.248 se 0.042",
   "kappa_1e-5_control": "+6.960 se 0.044",
   "flag_qm_ref": "+6.985 se 0.044"
  }
 },
 "findings": [
  "kappa 3e-5 cuts price RMS from 7.21 to 6.40 bps and raises retail revenue by 0.45, but arb loss grows by 1.17 (arb -30.245 vs -29.080) and edge falls 0.712 se 0.013 on 2048 holdout seeds; tuning 66000..66255 agreed (-0.680 se 0.037)",
  "on tuning seeds kappa 0 (-0.160 se 0.031) and 3e-6 (-0.098 se 0.026) also lose to 1e-5, so 1e-5 sits near the best of the four weights tested with the flag read right",
  "TellGauss with qm_k1e-5.json (the control) is -0.026 se 0.003 from the true-flag diagnostic on the holdout: the tell closes almost all of the +2.72 gap",
  "orchestrator check reproduced: +2.979 se 0.108 over gauss+qm and -0.031 se 0.013 vs the flag diagnostic on 66000..66095"
 ],
 "missing_seeds": [],
 "gas_cost_of_idea": "none beyond the control: table values only, same lookup; the tell itself needs a few integer ops on the reserve grid (not measured here)",
 "limitations": [
  "replica only (replica2.py), no engine run, no board entry; replica levels do not convert to board scores",
  "misread counts on 66000..66095: 456 of 672,163 first trades here vs 459 of 672,194 in the brief; edge figures agree to 0.001, the small count gap was not traced",
  "qmdp.py with kappa 0: level-0 A0c differs from pol_mid A0 by up to 0.005 bps (rounding), the README says equal",
  "one table variant only; the information-gain term is the igtab default (IG2 unset) as in qm_k1e-5.json",
  "holdout scored once for kappa 3e-5; kappa 0 and 3e-6 were run on tuning seeds only"
 ],
 "code_files": [
  "tellgauss.py",
  "stats.py",
  "run_item.sh"
 ],
 "code_format": "base64(zlib(tar)); place files beside run.py in research/solved",
 "code_zb64": "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",
 "code_sha256": "e8b36cf2bef9685f2496fbfe9665eaed39639fe80022c1900b276fbe0deb722e",
 "code_sha256_of": "the uncompressed tar bytes"
}