{"key": "revise-1", "idea": "After an ambiguous first trade (0.05<pi<0.95) keep arb and retail branch states (s2, synced, cnt/phase) plus two branch lattices; update the branch posterior at later same-step callbacks and at the next step's first trade (exact lattice predictive likelihood through silent steps); quote from the branch above 0.5 or pi-blend the two branches' fees; price belief stays latt.py's.", "settings_tried": [{"setting": "thr=0.5 nextstep=1 blend=0 (hard switch, next-step update only)", "n": 64, "mean_diff": -0.0351, "se": 0.0281}, {"setting": "thr=0.5 nextstep=1 blend=0 lryes=1.55 lrno=0.72 (adds 'later same-step own callback / none' likelihood ratio, fitted on 60000..60063 flags)", "n": 64, "mean_diff": -0.0639, "se": 0.028}, {"setting": "thr=0.5 nextstep=1 blend=1 (fees pi-weighted between the two branch states) [chosen]", "n": 64, "mean_diff": 0.0453, "se": 0.0444}], "tuning_seeds": "60000..60063 (64 of the planned 60000..60255; slow seat)", "confirm_paired": {"n": 64, "mean_diff": 0.1146, "se": 0.0476, "seeds": "60256..60319"}, "holdout_paired": {"n": 256, "mean_diff": 0.0792, "se": 0.0228, "sum": 20.28404, "sumsq": 35.401759, "worst5": [[10235, -1.292], [10183, -0.943], [10140, -0.877], [10214, -0.838], [10072, -0.799]], "seeds": "10000..10255 of 10000..12047, vs ref/lattice_qm.json; 1792 seeds not run"}, "flips": {"share_of_ambiguous": 0.1652, "share_right": 0.651, "ambiguous_share_of_first_trades": 0.6194, "setting": "blend=1, seeds 60000..60063"}, "misread_rate": {"base": 0.1611, "mine": 0.1302, "note": "mine = label after revision (hindsight, at branch close); the label used at the first callback itself is unchanged (16.1%)"}, "price_error_bps": {"base": 13.61, "mine": 13.61, "note": "rms of ln price estimate vs true, all callbacks, seeds 60000..60063; price belief unchanged by design"}, "gas_estimate": "Extra state: branch posterior, a second (s2, synced, cnt) and a second price belief (Gaussian port: one more (m,v)) about 4 storage slots (~4 x 2.9k warm SSTORE, +20k cold first time). Per callback while a branch is open: one extra table lookup for the blended fee (~25-35k gas in a port whose lookup is bilinear x 2 sd levels x 2 tables); at the next step's first trade two extra truncated-normal evaluations of the branch likelihoods (~10-15k). Rough total +40-60k gas on affected callbacks (62% of first trades open a branch); likely too much for a port near 238k unless the lookup is cheapened.", "code_zb64": "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", "code_sha256": "c03372707c7da7a6ad447a952fad8b526240f82c411061265d7620b315171ef4", "notes": "Slow seat (~4.5 s CPU per lattice run, ~1.3 CPUs effective), so every block is 64 seeds instead of 256 and the holdout is 256 of 2048 seeds (two 128-seed run.py commands, PROCS=8); nothing was filled in. Code frozen before the holdout. With nextstep=0 blend=0 the module is bit-identical to latt.py. Revision works as a classifier (hindsight misread 16.1% -> 13.0%, 65% of flips right, 16.5% of ambiguous reads flip) but a hard switch of s2/synced/phase loses edge (-0.035, -0.064 with the later-callback likelihood ratio): the flip only arrives at the next step's first trade, where the state reset makes the revised s2 matter little, and a wrong flip costs more than a right one gains. Pi-blending the two branch states' fees helps a little: +0.045 tune, +0.115 confirm, +0.079 se 0.023 holdout (256) - far below the 0.3 bar. Next: revise within the step using a routing likelihood (whether our quote or the rival's took the later order, direction LR alone is ~1.03), and blend quotes from the lattice mixture weights even without a branch flip; finish the holdout on a faster seat or the numba runner."}