# r5-fresh merge 02 These are screening seeds, not finalist seeds. The five inputs report tuning on 330000..330199 and holdout on 440000..440499. No simulations were run for this merge. Statistics below are copied from the input aggregates; only the requested descending mean_diff/se ranking is calculated. All target spreads are 1, 2, 3, 4, covering every reported holdout spread, so target statistics equal overall statistics. Differences are candidate minus RC; retail_diff and arb_diff are paired means. Sources are linked by key below and identified by exact file SHA-256 in `input_sources`. | Rank | Key / source | code_sha256 | Target spreads | Holdout n | Target mean_diff | Target se | Overall mean_diff | Overall se | retail_diff | arb_diff | Tuning mean | Flag | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | 1 | [f5-reprice-rate](../../items/f5-reprice-rate/result.json) | 7aeda6a8c1aa08c3149818d6deaebc2a67b528d831dd07b3108648632f6e82dd | 1,2,3,4 | 499 | -0.010426465176753509 | 0.019516506629401943 | -0.010426465176753509 | 0.019516506629401943 | -0.08133504109719433 | 0.07090857591523045 | 0.0058284461395935 | incomplete tuning/holdout; reported failures; comparator_mean differs from three-row mode | | 2 | [f5-mid-gap](../../items/f5-mid-gap/result.json) | f80953959ccb1f0e4498ba2aad38079b12735e5d056b48f39ce74fd3210b6cba | 1,2,3,4 | 500 | -0.1519105818621998 | 0.11770241921886238 | -0.1519105818621998 | 0.11770241921886238 | -0.07210721438239977 | -0.07980336747719999 | -0.2959768791000002 | comparator_mean differs from three-row mode | | 3 | [f5-jump-cluster](../../items/f5-jump-cluster/result.json) | 1c2489e77f6f40437e3411e34c715c9cdf886e714b2b91ffbb56657e0272d484 | 1,2,3,4 | 500 | -1.3598954177923992 | 0.46755939453635587 | -1.3598954177923992 | 0.46755939453635587 | -0.6411754396247994 | -0.7187199781584 | -1.6514591169819992 | none | | 4 | [f5-two-step-retreat](../../items/f5-two-step-retreat/result.json) | 78921a9d9e71faca2bfcb735dfbe2958e731d681fe8d94690b857641ccfc532b | 1,2,3,4 | 500 | -2.6953876394699985 | 0.5198827530283228 | -2.6953876394699985 | 0.5198827530283228 | -1.4899183806153993 | -1.2054692588449998 | -2.4864701558160003 | none | | 5 | [f5-fill-streak](../../items/f5-fill-streak/result.json) | 46d640af8edb010244c9ea1e7b6a70ab8e9c4bb544e0a62fec767d534769abac | 1,2,3,4 | 500 | -12.537263690243401 | 1.3069750231986212 | -12.537263690243401 | 1.3069750231986212 | -10.679297445304401 | -1.8579662449586 | -14.666636348272 | none | Evidence and limitations: - Fill-streak, jump-cluster and two-step-retreat report comparator_mean 101.4369248623788 on all 500 holdout seeds. Their check values agree, failures are absent, off_equals_rc is true, and their supplied overlay hashes match the exact code fields. See each linked input: `paired`, `check_values`, `failures`, `off_equals_rc`, and `code_sha256`. - Mid-gap reports comparator_mean 101.4369256297634, unlike the three-row mode. Its tuning comparator also differs (97.4672210850045 versus 97.4672213329115). This small discrepancy is flagged as requested, without asserting its cause. The input reports Python 3.12.16; the other inputs report 3.12.3. Source: [mid-gap](../../items/f5-mid-gap/result.json), `paired.overall`, `tuning.overall`, `python_version`. - Reprice-rate has only 499/500 holdout pairs, missing seed 440163, and 197/200 tuning pairs for its selected K10_f0.5 variant. Every tuning variant has collateral failures. Its comparator_mean is 101.65555207417435 on the surviving holdout pairs; these available-pair statistics can be biased and are diagnostic only. An initial rounding failure was repaired before tuning; subsequent collateral failures remain. Source: [reprice-rate](../../items/f5-reprice-rate/result.json), `tried`, `tuning`, `paired`, `failures`. - The requester reports two failed source validations for reprice-rate: sources could not be read again or did not support the quoted material. The supplied result JSON contains no source URLs or quotations identifying those two sources, so their claims cannot be independently attributed here. No external-source claim from that item is adopted as verified; its local numerical results are retained as reported and flagged for their documented failures. - Every reported overall holdout mean_diff is negative. Retain RC; there is no promotion supported by these screens. Jump-cluster and two-step-retreat are the best two unflagged rows by the specified ratio, not winning strategies. Source: the linked inputs, `paired.overall`. - `top.code` preserves each selected input’s full overlay code, gzip+base64 encoded. It depends on `_RC`; standalone assembled source was not supplied in these inputs. `code_sha256` authenticates the decoded overlay (checked locally); `assembled_sha256` is copied from the input and cannot be independently verified from the supplied overlay alone. Jump-cluster describes subclassing SHA-checked RC; two-step-retreat describes whole-word Strategy-to-_RC renaming in its `notes`. Both name comparator hash 3c07bdcd221ac25729c3ebc92b21ac9e2014510ecb85816c4391ed81e933291f. No assembled code is invented. ```json { "rows": [ { "key": "f5-reprice-rate", "code_sha256": "7aeda6a8c1aa08c3149818d6deaebc2a67b528d831dd07b3108648632f6e82dd", "target_spreads": [ 1, 2, 3, 4 ], "holdout_n": 499, "target_mean_diff": -0.010426465176753509, "target_se": 0.019516506629401943, "overall_mean_diff": -0.010426465176753509, "overall_se": 0.019516506629401943, "retail_diff": -0.08133504109719433, "arb_diff": 0.07090857591523045, "tuning_mean": 0.0058284461395935, "flag": true, "flag_reasons": [ "incomplete tuning/holdout", "reported failures", "comparator_mean differs from three-row mode" ], "by_spread": { "1": { "n": 141, "sum_d": 4.955440104299988, "sum_d2": 31.47656091136503, "mean_diff": 0.035144965278723315, "se": 0.039821283977248746, "comparator_mean": 28.972641823249646, "candidate_mean": 29.00778678852837, "retail_diff": -0.011117094067376437, "arb_diff": 0.046262059343262454 }, "2": { "n": 110, "sum_d": -4.326338988799999, "sum_d2": 12.358095983365576, "mean_diff": -0.039330354443636355, "se": 0.03188273386526525, "comparator_mean": 88.78927784058273, "candidate_mean": 88.74994748613909, "retail_diff": -0.15547558577272722, "arb_diff": 0.11614523132090897 }, "3": { "n": 119, "sum_d": -6.808459207299988, "sum_d2": 34.13624189537097, "mean_diff": -0.05721394291848729, "se": 0.0490231474491658, "comparator_mean": 143.37780997585293, "candidate_mean": 143.32059603293445, "retail_diff": -0.1248367736932763, "arb_diff": 0.06762283076806719 }, "4": { "n": 129, "sum_d": 0.976551968599999, "sum_d2": 16.736276582174654, "mean_diff": 0.007570170299224799, "se": 0.03182978050775933, "comparator_mean": 153.5829305298, "candidate_mean": 153.59050070009923, "retail_diff": -0.05473476542248076, "arb_diff": 0.06230493571782954 } }, "comparator_mean": 101.65555207417435, "assembled_sha256": "809c313aca5e795da07bc311459b2090dc41d8b9158d66b45b6ef2aefe0ec19a", "comparator_sha256": "3c07bdcd221ac25729c3ebc92b21ac9e2014510ecb85816c4391ed81e933291f", "off_equals_rc": true, "check_values": [ 17.5126554022, 20.6298693268, 2.3903113616, 248.006347259 ], "source": ".imd/reads/artifacts/item-f5-reprice-rate", "source_fields": { "holdout": "paired.overall; paired.by_spread", "tuning": "tuning.overall" } }, { "key": "f5-mid-gap", "code_sha256": "f80953959ccb1f0e4498ba2aad38079b12735e5d056b48f39ce74fd3210b6cba", "target_spreads": [ 1, 2, 3, 4 ], "holdout_n": 500, "target_mean_diff": -0.1519105818621998, "target_se": 0.11770241921886238, "overall_mean_diff": -0.1519105818621998, "overall_se": 0.11770241921886238, "retail_diff": -0.07210721438239977, "arb_diff": -0.07980336747719999, "tuning_mean": -0.2959768791000002, "flag": true, "flag_reasons": [ "comparator_mean differs from three-row mode" ], "by_spread": { "1": { "n": 142, "sum_d": 26.295648100299974, "sum_d2": 208.33454907210697, "mean_diff": 0.1851806204246477, "se": 0.10080712746368203, "comparator_mean": 28.71468187990704, "candidate_mean": 28.899862500331686, "retail_diff": 0.08832390435140822, "arb_diff": 0.09685671605985917 }, "2": { "n": 110, "sum_d": -37.12015923389997, "sum_d2": 400.2085181106664, "mean_diff": -0.33745599303545426, "se": 0.17981597903085642, "comparator_mean": 88.78927784058273, "candidate_mean": 88.45182184754727, "retail_diff": -0.3102348298481817, "arb_diff": -0.027221163183636047 }, "3": { "n": 119, "sum_d": -77.49720379240004, "sum_d2": 532.6036171086035, "mean_diff": -0.6512370066588239, "se": 0.18529753922670006, "comparator_mean": 143.37780997585378, "candidate_mean": 142.72657296919496, "retail_diff": -0.32319169427815203, "arb_diff": -0.32804531238487394 }, "4": { "n": 129, "sum_d": 12.366423994900153, "sum_d2": 2326.9296708976985, "mean_diff": 0.0958637518984508, "se": 0.37530221826210947, "comparator_mean": 153.5829305298, "candidate_mean": 153.67879428169846, "retail_diff": 0.18596931235116457, "arb_diff": -0.09010556042713198 } }, "comparator_mean": 101.4369256297634, "assembled_sha256": "14a54f5cbfa52520c18f9ac8f68b2dc8f0cf55e4c1102238482013c78812e285", "comparator_sha256": "3c07bdcd221ac25729c3ebc92b21ac9e2014510ecb85816c4391ed81e933291f", "off_equals_rc": true, "check_values": { "310000": 17.5126554022, "310001": 20.6298693268, "310002": 2.3903113616, "310003": 248.006347259 }, "source": ".imd/reads/artifacts/item-f5-mid-gap", "source_fields": { "holdout": "paired.overall; paired.by_spread", "tuning": "tuning.overall" } }, { "key": "f5-jump-cluster", "code_sha256": "1c2489e77f6f40437e3411e34c715c9cdf886e714b2b91ffbb56657e0272d484", "target_spreads": [ 1, 2, 3, 4 ], "holdout_n": 500, "target_mean_diff": -1.3598954177923992, "target_se": 0.46755939453635587, "overall_mean_diff": -1.3598954177923992, "overall_se": 0.46755939453635587, "retail_diff": -0.6411754396247994, "arb_diff": -0.7187199781584, "tuning_mean": -1.6514591169819992, "flag": false, "flag_reasons": [], "by_spread": { "1": { "n": 142, "sum_d": -1.0918031194999105, "sum_d2": 307.8608376283616, "mean_diff": -0.007688754362675426, "se": 0.1239988260886355, "comparator_mean": 28.7146791778493, "candidate_mean": 28.70699042348662, "retail_diff": -0.07188748991408551, "arb_diff": 0.06419873556478888 }, "2": { "n": 110, "sum_d": 70.25687737540004, "sum_d2": 5884.036194699573, "mean_diff": 0.6386988852309095, "se": 0.697855837138205, "comparator_mean": 88.78927784058273, "candidate_mean": 89.42797672581364, "retail_diff": -1.0315261366499997, "arb_diff": 1.6702250218663637 }, "3": { "n": 119, "sum_d": -70.26822007829986, "sum_d2": 1075.7318763469614, "mean_diff": -0.590489244355461, "se": 0.2713913635243533, "comparator_mean": 143.37780997585293, "candidate_mean": 142.7873207314975, "retail_diff": -1.2429287964008393, "arb_diff": 0.6524395520369747 }, "4": { "n": 129, "sum_d": -678.8445630737999, "sum_d2": 48200.669826082805, "mean_diff": -5.262360954060465, "se": 1.6440141434443016, "comparator_mean": 153.5829305298, "candidate_mean": 148.32056957573954, "retail_diff": -0.37987049954573415, "arb_diff": -4.882490454473643 } }, "comparator_mean": 101.4369248623788, "assembled_sha256": "1babae006176f288427bc6ac9f06ce040c92c6ec55e3477c979011dbe3793aba", "comparator_sha256": "3c07bdcd221ac25729c3ebc92b21ac9e2014510ecb85816c4391ed81e933291f", "off_equals_rc": true, "check_values": { "310000": 17.5126554022, "310001": 20.6298693268, "310002": 2.3903113616, "310003": 248.006347259 }, "source": ".imd/reads/artifacts/item-f5-jump-cluster", "source_fields": { "holdout": "paired.overall; paired.by_spread", "tuning": "tuning.overall" } }, { "key": "f5-two-step-retreat", "code_sha256": "78921a9d9e71faca2bfcb735dfbe2958e731d681fe8d94690b857641ccfc532b", "target_spreads": [ 1, 2, 3, 4 ], "holdout_n": 500, "target_mean_diff": -2.6953876394699985, "target_se": 0.5198827530283228, "overall_mean_diff": -2.6953876394699985, "overall_se": 0.5198827530283228, "retail_diff": -1.4899183806153993, "arb_diff": -1.2054692588449998, "tuning_mean": -2.4864701558160003, "flag": false, "flag_reasons": [], "by_spread": { "1": { "n": 142, "sum_d": 18.10607111600002, "sum_d2": 500.75510296586043, "mean_diff": 0.12750754307042267, "se": 0.15778129700540197, "comparator_mean": 28.7146791778493, "candidate_mean": 28.842186720919717, "retail_diff": 0.05613545841619735, "arb_diff": 0.07137208465704288 }, "2": { "n": 110, "sum_d": -80.83242098749992, "sum_d2": 677.3625995937938, "mean_diff": -0.7348401907954538, "se": 0.2270240602469613, "comparator_mean": 88.78927784058273, "candidate_mean": 88.05443764978727, "retail_diff": -1.4960602118054545, "arb_diff": 0.7612200210145454 }, "3": { "n": 119, "sum_d": -274.43721080149965, "sum_d2": 3192.397848468, "mean_diff": -2.3061950487520977, "se": 0.4269356426842082, "comparator_mean": 143.37780997585293, "candidate_mean": 141.07161492710085, "retail_diff": -3.1039408226117637, "arb_diff": 0.7977457738554625 }, "4": { "n": 129, "sum_d": -1010.5302590619998, "sum_d2": 66696.42189810504, "mean_diff": -7.833567899705425, "se": 1.8867584228284489, "comparator_mean": 153.5829305298, "candidate_mean": 145.7493626300946, "retail_diff": -1.6976344512666652, "arb_diff": -6.135933448404651 } }, "comparator_mean": 101.4369248623788, "assembled_sha256": "d1412653edcd7aae7ee2c8de271f6f90150e7baac47b1818e4705ed580709ee8", "comparator_sha256": "3c07bdcd221ac25729c3ebc92b21ac9e2014510ecb85816c4391ed81e933291f", "off_equals_rc": true, "check_values": { "310000": 17.5126554022, "310001": 20.6298693268, "310002": 2.3903113616, "310003": 248.006347259 }, "source": ".imd/reads/artifacts/item-f5-two-step-retreat", "source_fields": { "holdout": "paired.overall; paired.by_spread", "tuning": "tuning.variants.C=2.overall" } }, { "key": "f5-fill-streak", "code_sha256": "46d640af8edb010244c9ea1e7b6a70ab8e9c4bb544e0a62fec767d534769abac", "target_spreads": [ 1, 2, 3, 4 ], "holdout_n": 500, "target_mean_diff": -12.537263690243401, "target_se": 1.3069750231986212, "overall_mean_diff": -12.537263690243401, "overall_se": 1.3069750231986212, "retail_diff": -10.679297445304401, "arb_diff": -1.8579662449586, "tuning_mean": -14.666636348272, "flag": false, "flag_reasons": [], "by_spread": { "1": { "n": 142, "sum_d": -665.2655157877999, "sum_d2": 82368.37706173873, "mean_diff": -4.684968421040844, "se": 1.989529443432883, "comparator_mean": 28.7146791778493, "candidate_mean": 24.02971075680845, "retail_diff": -5.031696567379578, "arb_diff": 0.3467281462971832 }, "2": { "n": 110, "sum_d": -856.7043690399001, "sum_d2": 43090.96738704888, "mean_diff": -7.788221536726365, "se": 1.7428219035843586, "comparator_mean": 88.78927784058273, "candidate_mean": 81.00105630385636, "retail_diff": -8.055513243273635, "arb_diff": 0.26729170649636363 }, "3": { "n": 119, "sum_d": -1709.8869330522998, "sum_d2": 137486.5581687409, "mean_diff": -14.368797756742016, "se": 2.8357387453094285, "comparator_mean": 143.37780997585293, "candidate_mean": 129.00901221911093, "retail_diff": -15.824319237988236, "arb_diff": 1.455521481237815 }, "4": { "n": 129, "sum_d": -3036.7750272417, "sum_d2": 241837.42376244586, "mean_diff": -23.540891684044187, "se": 3.2119590133701026, "comparator_mean": 153.5829305298, "candidate_mean": 130.0420388457558, "retail_diff": -14.38718886824496, "arb_diff": -9.153702815778294 } }, "comparator_mean": 101.4369248623788, "assembled_sha256": "836bde64e6ccc94aa668b6c3625704ceeba9097e2f1863cc5919204a2b4c2da2", "comparator_sha256": "3c07bdcd221ac25729c3ebc92b21ac9e2014510ecb85816c4391ed81e933291f", "off_equals_rc": true, "check_values": { "310000": 17.5126554022, "310001": 20.6298693268, "310002": 2.3903113616, "310003": 248.006347259 }, "source": ".imd/reads/artifacts/item-f5-fill-streak", "source_fields": { "holdout": "paired.overall; paired.by_spread", "tuning": "tuning.overall" } } ], "top": [ { "key": "f5-jump-cluster", "code_sha256": "1c2489e77f6f40437e3411e34c715c9cdf886e714b2b91ffbb56657e0272d484", "assembled_sha256": "1babae006176f288427bc6ac9f06ce040c92c6ec55e3477c979011dbe3793aba", "encoding": "gzip+base64; decoded content is exact UTF-8 overlay source from input code", "code": "H4sIAAAAAAACA5VUS4/TMBC+51fM0RFpti17QhRpVY5oi+DAASHLTSZdU8eObFdshfjveJw0j9LsCl+a2t/LY48ra2owtkS7N+bIm5oXT0Ip1AfM/blBB7JujPWwFbpA9aBU1n3uiJTBZyUKjN9JkhRKOAdfvRUeD2fGv2zTdwmEsd3tPn3cfXuEDaySOFNiBUZz57FhDlWVgfOB1eFpiMJLo12guFODlqV5j4/IHigrIIV8MNnActChYdGfrL5IJv3aXpakT3p5YeoGvfTG8j06z8Ma97I4uiGRO86iw9oVmmJFKGW+kSlm5j9PdcNdY1FQklo8s1UGjJwWMd0bWKVwdwfrlARpRjrQxsOj0QhClzHVeA6VQ1jOWYUT8ryW5Tq4EXwOZ7EWUkt9CLjlULCO2SaLzv8RauJ3ObVJBaQG2v86g7cZ3KdRKlpe69/c0Qg0LXXwEnvHImhxk5vChw3cT1kvVGRy35JXykw/ycy+B9H3r13aFyMtqLEuiCM2Pvh+b5lQGduJUH0vbRVyULGkkzpc09DRrF0Zt3T6Yxyb4EKf2Q1K/zqkV24UJZ1uq4hYhXTff7fIPL5APNyjf9nkPOvYpvwz0SdSjs8edclGKBY9eqc2aPxHTm2nml+ax6lYnimhrZYe4g8PUHdQZJz8BUHQLkpRBQAA" }, { "key": "f5-two-step-retreat", "code_sha256": "78921a9d9e71faca2bfcb735dfbe2958e731d681fe8d94690b857641ccfc532b", "assembled_sha256": "d1412653edcd7aae7ee2c8de271f6f90150e7baac47b1818e4705ed580709ee8", "encoding": "gzip+base64; 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