{"item":"bs-a","batch":"e04-belief-solve","credit":"Policy, Gaussian filter, replica2, dp.py, qmdp.py and qm tables are by Taylor (gtmcknight), github.com/gtmcknight/amm-sim @4812a6382311624e1506aca131ca35c378f930d9 research/solved. COMBO/TwoComp/qt1/qm-spline are IdentityMD items built on them.","verdict":"NEGATIVE. The belief-extended policy C is -7.162 (se 0.041) below COMBO and -6.565 (se 0.042) below qt1 on report 10000..12047. The control (both axes collapsed) does NOT reproduce COMBO: it is -7.230 (se 0.041) below it, so the pipeline as built here (reduced grid plus mean-pi decision mixing) is the cause, not the belief axes. Inside the pipeline the two axes add +0.068 (se 0.011) over the control on report and +0.064 (se 0.014) on choose. Not a candidate for a contract.","gates_output":{"gate_P_gates_py_unmodified":"seed   perfect-info      gaussian+plain    gaussian+qm       lattice+qm\n10000  448.261189  443.455598  443.522608  443.663520\n10001  576.779199  571.463409  571.623551  571.977293\n10002  531.886497  525.168028  525.865859  526.411631\n","gate_P_qt1_and_COMBO_seeds_10000_10002 (seed qt1 COMBO seconds)":"10000 443.101741 444.195330 2.41\n10001 571.454483 572.172682 0.62\n10002 525.908441 526.274760 0.53\n","gate_P_pass":"all 12 gates.py values equal the README table at 6 dp; qt1=QMRef 443.101741 571.454483 525.908441 and COMBO 444.195330 572.172682 526.274760 reproduced exactly","gate_Q_liveness":{"tab_ext.json:64000":{"callbacks_replayed":17130,"fees_bit_identical":true},"tab_ext.json:10000":{"callbacks_replayed":16048,"fees_bit_identical":true},"tab_ctl.json:64000":{"callbacks_replayed":17080,"fees_bit_identical":true},"tab_ctl.json:10000":{"callbacks_replayed":16054,"fees_bit_identical":true}},"gate_Q_liveness_note":"Callbacks recorded from a real run, then replayed into fresh policies with arb, p, s2, j and init sigma/lam/size randomized, twice per seed: fees bit-identical on every callback. Seed 10000 was used only for this replay check, never for choosing."},"hashes":{"amm_sim_commit":"4812a6382311624e1506aca131ca35c378f930d9 (git rev-parse HEAD)","artifacts_sha256_verified":{"qt1":"8a6e303b662e1a5ea9bb47f31acedd3988ef65b3ddb66d074517aa59ad41ca40","TC":"d3c849db2ac31e567b57e52b80b86e8c24c842e5b4125b9d75c78e3cb07115b9","COMBO":"d360bea6c8c982717b7b43a8069a87013169c89ee3e4da25622db4d880b936d4","QMS1":"17d249ab0c33fc44931d9b105cf3f9e3846a560bd518b67310c2a56defacdecc"},"extracted_files_match_COMBO_published":{"combo.py":"c5b711a0b4fb4783e8879a484bf87a427171f4a11aa5eb5ec3513c24ead1a796","twocomp.py":"9d3c1833321493fb51bbde4e1b4dabc2f8978bd6d774ee2af8dc8aed13f0f0af","blob.bin":"3ac7cb8811ecfb6a17f499aa4e9b70dd55f7fb6432b3aec3b904e11a3dece38e"},"research_solved_files":"41a72a924638e34d4ef56ba922f162e7fe60ac6c915f08d950c648151dc7b227  clsdata.py\nca4e7c378d23c46c7def4716611135c471a831d15234b984fe30d58d9eec5734  dp.py\n6e67667bfed7798bdd3384652a6efc6ba0b1fce653740d0f9af2bcbcb8e6a27c  evalpol.py\na02f85e20e80f0593b9986e96cfa78f4e5f63947bd8f228a31c60af3f2503ec5  fillstat.py\nde6991683b4a5f2b05b4b0d0a09e963ebc7ca1c4d7b6a4cc7602882999b08c8d  fixedcheck2.py\n603280c1f595ca163ffaf2ba1ebdc7945fdb08dabae67fc53c922d39e1cce604  gates.py\n925c0fe996b19fd51fb79a85d5e4dba4bc2f5453d0a156cc1e480f65a6a00cc8  latt.py\n63b8c35048718c37eb0a5dae9e70849fa3af257c335e4a2e3a625c833f1dc1eb  qmdp.py\n1305b5333731c046c3e6736cc2578eff4635c88132a39c22f5780d78aef2c81e  real.py\n6e37b4e61e1ffa5ffb1e43912ddb8659105989aa986eb48fcd1d7608f8dca685  replica2.py\nb79b7356f7c46738ca0c5f4718ae397b67e222d8bc57cbc088896270800d5462  stale.py\n6300a33eddc091d9cb3bec5b36e23f32a541a8a2499085b9cc05d08e96b6f692  trace.py\n69f49abd59e6bd62f457184cbf6ca7ea16d42bb3ef90d71c0802468ded0ba486  track.py\nfdf24c7aa2b604d770336a5783276da8ed4d50bca9dbcc02e98b4da58f608d26  calib_out_2048.json\nefbb5ee102db4d312f64565d9bf7232b6becbe02b624164f744a402bbbf2983b  pol_mid.json\n5ff53e42ca87390e5f65d1caa3f7a480e67a8212fb0670274dfd562b05ba1afd  qm_k1e-5.json\n","frozen_before_choose":"7bb0185afe59422b49de334eade03ddd0d12e09effd5c6b30a37bc094c6fe6fc  w/extpol.py\nc5b711a0b4fb4783e8879a484bf87a427171f4a11aa5eb5ec3513c24ead1a796  w/combo.py\n9d3c1833321493fb51bbde4e1b4dabc2f8978bd6d774ee2af8dc8aed13f0f0af  w/twocomp.py\n3ac7cb8811ecfb6a17f499aa4e9b70dd55f7fb6432b3aec3b904e11a3dece38e  w/blob.bin\n4386dbc031499dc5981f06633b2302cf8a9709182d7e5c1d9a22d228f6087aea  w/ext.py\ne6e97503b489514868f7848a8e22811e86eedee0789c036225fdd2926001dd68  w/mk.py\nb3edefff9002059d24bd767bb3692b85892ff88803e8e868fe6c74d4d7c78f3d  w/rec.py\n8777af3fec5be27563be3db5e84df0f05747faba4a054b79f9a788e2bb626873  w/screen.py\ndfb01a9cdc2f9d52aa257d446a3a9b63afaf40559f0d0dffe4442d0faf13753c  st/tab_ext.json\n78448ea53b4845a291e8cd33dc0cdc6db5cad840afef419cfe1703008b1e36d9  st/tab_ctl.json\nf86169a024697ebf9d94c9aafd37e9ef362e13fe0b8dd40b46fbfeaf4bf1e6ab  st/levels.json\n"},"frozen_spec":{"filter":"COMBO unchanged (class Ext(Combo) overrides only lookup/lookup_offsets to pick the table set)","levels":{"sd_level":"0 if sqrt(v)==0 (hard call), else terciles of COMBO nonzero post-update sd on 64000..64063: cuts [8.3321, 15.6501] bps (n=661829)","pi_level":"first own trade of a step: 0 pi<=.005, 1 .005<pi<.995, 2 pi>=.995 (read from COMBO comp); later trades in a step: 0","L":"3*sd_level+pi_level; populated on 64000..64063: [0, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10]"},"dp_grid":"dp.py imported unmodified with DP_NW=60 (w range +-300 bps, 121 rows; README uses 160), DP_AMINL=-12, DP_NA=43, 5 bps lattice, lam .8 sigma 9.45 size 20","reward_weighting":"phase-0 and phase-1 decisions at level L choose one quote pair against pbar_L*V_N0+(1-pbar_L)*V_N1 (rival columns inside the band; outside it V_N1 alone); each true phase keeps its own value at that pair","level_transitions":"per DP event (0 arb pin, 1 first retail after a step boundary or an arb, 2 later retail), estimated from COMBO callbacks on 64000..64063 using the replica true flag for the event type only, marginalised over 3 fill buckets (|ln s/sp| <5, 5-20, >=20 bps)","tables":"qmdp.qtab/ebel/igtab (qmdp.py unmodified), kappa 1e-5*(1-h_phase), 8 sd levels, one set per belief level; unpopulated cells reuse the same-sd populated cell (never reached)","tables_sha256":{"ext":"dfb01a9cdc2f9d52aa257d446a3a9b63afaf40559f0d0dffe4442d0faf13753c","control":"78448ea53b4845a291e8cd33dc0cdc6db5cad840afef419cfe1703008b1e36d9"}},"solve":{"state_size":{"extended":"8 populated belief levels x (V_N0 121x13x43x43 + V_N1 121x49x43x43 + V_N2 121x49x43x43) = 198671352 values","control":"1 level, 24833919 values"},"level_mean_pi":[0.0,null,1.0,0.0,0.9335086573749745,null,0.0,0.5594213048472013,null,0.0,0.33051698840858057,null],"level_true_arb_rate":[0.0,null,0.9905407987769922,0.001118228205406579,0.9274875099220246,null,0.001957231500316234,0.5578924000540509,null,5.116659844453541e-05,0.321870633912085,null],"level_callbacks":[9391,0,20932,92110,128502,0,117002,103606,0,78176,142433,0],"control_pbar":0.3553,"sweeps":{"control":102,"extended":23,"extended_warm_start":"from the converged control values"},"convergence":{"control_last":{"sweep":102,"g_per_run":540.6849263866899,"diff":1.9683894392219514e-07,"span":1.9683916192836381e-07,"sec":1.64},"extended_last":{"sweep":23,"g_per_run":540.7645118641286,"diff":8.578323591579284e-06,"span":1.294586492897598e-05,"sec":12.72},"extended_prev":{"sweep":22,"g_per_run":540.7644146599113,"diff":0.0010320789866618274,"span":0.0010635680573240769,"sec":12.7},"note":"control reached tol 2e-7 per step. Extended stopped at 23 sweeps for the time budget, last max change 8.6e-6 per step (span 1.3e-5), still oscillating (1.0e-3 one sweep earlier); NOT converged to tol."},"wall_time_s":{"control":178.4,"extended":306.7,"tables_ext":79,"tables_ctl":12},"transition_counts_by_event_and_fill_bucket":{"event0_arb":[63386,129946,50566],"event1_first_retail":[67803,152033,100293],"event2_later_retail":[27070,60655,40336]},"transition_counts_full":"st/levels.json counts[event][fill][Lprev][L] (12x12), regenerate with rec.py"},"control_comparison":{"reproduces_COMBO_within_se":false,"choose":{"n":1024,"mean_diff":-7.275479,"se":0.059871,"worst5":[[64454,-14.907805],[64139,-14.123321],[64353,-13.476156],[64976,-13.096773],[64697,-12.564621]],"wins":0,"sum_d":-7450.090736,"sum_d2":57957.990022},"report":{"n":2048,"mean_diff":-7.230291,"se":0.04103,"worst5":[[11322,-14.458359],[10335,-14.342118],[10765,-14.171503],[11191,-13.758802],[11692,-13.585983]],"wins":1,"sum_d":-14807.636976,"sum_d2":114121.067604},"likely_causes_unverified":["mean-pi mixing at every phase-0/1 decision with one global pbar=0.355 changes quotes even where the phase is known","w range cut to +-300 bps","qmdp tables from a 121-row solve vs COMBO spline of the full 321-row tables"]},"choose_64000_65023":{"C-COMBO":{"n":1024,"mean_diff":-7.211455,"se":0.059104,"worst5":[[64454,-15.560907],[64139,-13.49677],[64976,-12.938616],[64697,-12.499558],[64353,-12.45407]],"wins":0,"sum_d":-7384.530017,"sum_d2":56912.647112},"C-qt1":{"n":1024,"mean_diff":-6.60185,"se":0.060236,"worst5":[[64454,-15.144629],[64139,-13.595469],[64101,-13.096336],[64353,-12.830843],[64976,-12.510391]],"wins":0,"sum_d":-6760.294859,"sum_d2":48431.397471},"control-COMBO":{"n":1024,"mean_diff":-7.275479,"se":0.059871,"worst5":[[64454,-14.907805],[64139,-14.123321],[64353,-13.476156],[64976,-13.096773],[64697,-12.564621]],"wins":0,"sum_d":-7450.090736,"sum_d2":57957.990022},"control-qt1":{"n":1024,"mean_diff":-6.665875,"se":0.060578,"worst5":[[64454,-14.491528],[64139,-14.22202],[64353,-13.852929],[64976,-12.668548],[64185,-12.152221]],"wins":0,"sum_d":-6825.855578,"sum_d2":49344.488286},"COMBO-qt1":{"n":1024,"mean_diff":0.609605,"se":0.019401,"worst5":[[64101,-2.776983],[64845,-1.163868],[64374,-1.023434],[64795,-0.983171],[64555,-0.946189]],"wins":875,"sum_d":624.235158,"sum_d2":774.814573},"C-control":{"n":1024,"mean_diff":0.064024,"se":0.014105,"worst5":[[64884,-1.394466],[64007,-1.298616],[64498,-1.273531],[64518,-1.232136],[64266,-1.223443]],"wins":566,"sum_d":65.560719,"sum_d2":212.601555},"coverage":{"ext":1024,"ctl":1024,"combo":1024,"qt1":1024},"mean_edge":{"ext":529.118645,"ctl":529.054621,"combo":536.3301,"qt1":535.720495}},"report_10000_12047":{"C-COMBO":{"n":2048,"mean_diff":-7.162411,"se":0.040675,"worst5":[[10335,-14.648244],[10765,-14.448413],[11322,-14.132123],[11191,-13.764133],[11692,-13.063115]],"wins":1,"sum_d":-14668.618583,"sum_d2":111998.682886},"C-qt1":{"n":2048,"mean_diff":-6.564993,"se":0.042098,"worst5":[[10146,-14.680724],[10765,-13.638787],[11322,-13.076416],[11692,-12.498726],[10335,-12.424902]],"wins":1,"sum_d":-13445.105624,"sum_d2":95696.76808},"control-COMBO":{"n":2048,"mean_diff":-7.230291,"se":0.04103,"worst5":[[11322,-14.458359],[10335,-14.342118],[10765,-14.171503],[11191,-13.758802],[11692,-13.585983]],"wins":1,"sum_d":-14807.636976,"sum_d2":114121.067604},"control-qt1":{"n":2048,"mean_diff":-6.632873,"se":0.042539,"worst5":[[10146,-14.015408],[11322,-13.402653],[10765,-13.361877],[11692,-13.021594],[10954,-12.957008]],"wins":1,"sum_d":-13584.124017,"sum_d2":97687.778082},"COMBO-qt1":{"n":2048,"mean_diff":0.597418,"se":0.013388,"worst5":[[10146,-3.552497],[11062,-2.334849],[11808,-1.822738],[10519,-1.782691],[11376,-1.750296]],"wins":1753,"sum_d":1223.512959,"sum_d2":1482.402815},"C-control":{"n":2048,"mean_diff":0.06788,"se":0.010662,"worst5":[[10358,-3.298932],[11701,-3.210156],[11311,-2.622633],[11827,-2.210379],[10353,-1.868814]],"wins":1183,"sum_d":139.018393,"sum_d2":485.981577},"coverage":{"ext":2048,"ctl":2048,"combo":2048,"qt1":2048},"mean_edge":{"ext":526.697838,"ctl":526.629958,"combo":533.860249,"qt1":533.262831}},"C-COMBO":{"choose":{"n":1024,"mean_diff":-7.211455,"se":0.059104,"worst5":[[64454,-15.560907],[64139,-13.49677],[64976,-12.938616],[64697,-12.499558],[64353,-12.45407]],"wins":0,"sum_d":-7384.530017,"sum_d2":56912.647112},"report":{"n":2048,"mean_diff":-7.162411,"se":0.040675,"worst5":[[10335,-14.648244],[10765,-14.448413],[11322,-14.132123],[11191,-13.764133],[11692,-13.063115]],"wins":1,"sum_d":-14668.618583,"sum_d2":111998.682886}},"C-qt1":{"choose":{"n":1024,"mean_diff":-6.60185,"se":0.060236,"worst5":[[64454,-15.144629],[64139,-13.595469],[64101,-13.096336],[64353,-12.830843],[64976,-12.510391]],"wins":0,"sum_d":-6760.294859,"sum_d2":48431.397471},"report":{"n":2048,"mean_diff":-6.564993,"se":0.042098,"worst5":[[10146,-14.680724],[10765,-13.638787],[11322,-13.076416],[11692,-12.498726],[10335,-12.424902]],"wins":1,"sum_d":-13445.105624,"sum_d2":95696.76808}},"findings":["Gate P reproduces exactly (README table, qt1, COMBO on 10000..10002).","COMBO filter levels are well calibrated: level mean pi vs true arb rate 0.9335/0.9275, 0.5594/0.5579, 0.3305/0.3219; only 8 of 12 cells occur (sd>0 with pi>=.995 never happens, since a hard arb call sets v=0).","Report: C-COMBO -7.162 se 0.041 (1 win of 2048); C-qt1 -6.565 se 0.042; control-COMBO -7.230 se 0.041: the control fails, so this pipeline does not reproduce COMBO.","Within the pipeline, the belief axes add +0.068 se 0.011 (report) / +0.064 se 0.014 (choose) over the collapsed control: a small, consistent signal but around 100x smaller than the pipeline loss.","COMBO-qt1 recomputed here: +0.597418 se 0.013388 report (COMBO published +0.597391 against published 6 dp qt1 edges), +0.609605 se 0.019401 choose."],"limitations":["Extended RVI not converged (23 sweeps, 8.6e-6). The machine had 4 cores, and a full-grid 12-level solve did not fit the time.","Grid reduced to +-300 bps own displacement (DP_NW=60), not coarsened to 10 bps.","Fill buckets are used for estimation and counts only; the DP uses transitions marginalised over fill buckets.","Hard-call levels use pi=1/0 in the level mean (true pi there is within .005 of it).","Mean-pi weighting is applied at all phase-0/1 decisions, including phase-1 decisions after an arb in the same step (DP phase does not separate them); level 0 pbar=0 there.","Levels and transitions estimated on 64000..64063, inside the choose window; nothing was selected afterwards (one frozen spec, no alternatives tried).","Replica only; no engine, contract, Gate F or gas. Replica levels are not board scores."],"regeneration":["git clone https://github.com/gtmcknight/amm-sim test/scratch/src/amm-sim && git -C test/scratch/src/amm-sim checkout 4812a6382311624e1506aca131ca35c378f930d9","fetch the 4 artifacts from https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/<h>; extract twocomp.py (TC \"## Code\" python fence), combo.py (COMBO \"## Code\" fence), blob.bin (QMS1 \"## Data:\" base64) into test/scratch/w","uv venv --python 3.12 test/scratch/venv; uv pip install numpy numba (numpy 2.5.4, numba 0.68.1 used)","python3 -I w/rec.py st/levels.json","DP_NW=60 DP_AMINL=-12 DP_NA=43 venv/bin/python w/ext.py st/levels.json ctl st/ctl.npz 420","DP_NW=60 DP_AMINL=-12 DP_NA=43 venv/bin/python w/ext.py st/levels.json ext st/ext.npz 400 st/ctl.npz   (repeat to resume)","DP_NW=60 ... venv/bin/python w/mk.py st/ctl.npz st/levels.json ctl st/tab_ctl.json 60; same with ext st/ext.npz -> st/tab_ext.json","python3 -I w/gateq_live.py; python3 -I w/screen.py ext,ctl,combo,qt1 64000 65024 380; python3 -I w/screen.py ext,ctl,combo,qt1 10000 12048 430 (resume until done); python3 -I w/agg.py","run from test/scratch; Python 3.10.12 for python3 -I"],"source_bundle":{"encoding":"base85(zlib(json 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