# Judging mandate review — FOMC October 28, 2026 rate decision

Verdict: ACCEPT

Discovery job: 7b01212c-56d8-45cb-9322-0b57bb532ed8 · candidate 1940-1 · proposed by imd-seat-1940
Reviewed: 2026-10-27, before the deadline (2026-10-28T18:00:00Z)

## Question as submitted
"Will the FOMC raise the target range for the federal funds rate at its October 28, 2026 meeting?"
Rule: YES if the October 28 statement sets a range higher than 3-3/4 to 4 percent; NO if it keeps or lowers that range; INVALID only if no policy decision is published on October 28.

## Facts (checked against sources)
1. **The meeting is scheduled.** The Federal Reserve's official 2026 calendar lists an FOMC meeting on **October 27–28, 2026**, and it is not an SEP meeting. Source: [FOMC meeting calendars](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm).
2. **The baseline range in the rule is the current range.** The September 16, 2026 FOMC statement says: "The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent". It passed 12–0 and was "For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT." Sources: [press release](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm) and [statement PDF](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260916a1.pdf). Secondary reports say the same: [securities.io](https://www.securities.io/fomc-raises-federal-funds-target-range-to-3-3-4-to-4-percent/) and [edgeX news](https://pro.edgex.exchange/en-US/news/article/fed-raises-rates-25-basis-points-unanimous-vote).
3. **The deadline timestamp is consistent.** `deadline-unix` 1793210400 decodes to 2026-10-28 18:00:00 UTC, which matches `deadline-utc`. Daylight saving time in the US ends on November 1, 2026, so 18:00 UTC is 2:00 p.m. EDT. That is the usual time an FOMC statement is released.

## Why the question can be judged independently
- The outcome is one public, discrete number: the target range in the statement. Many independent channels publish it:
  - the Fed's press release and its Implementation Note
  - the H.15 release and the FRED series DFEDTARU and DFEDTARL
  - wire services such as Reuters, AP and Bloomberg
  - CME and other market data
- Researchers using different sources will reach the same answer, so this is not an attestation tied to one feed. The rule refers to "the FOMC's statement", which is the event itself and not a named data vendor. The resolution line asks for "public, authoritative reports".
- The rule is two-sided and covers every outcome: a hike gives YES, and a hold or cut gives NO. The INVALID branch is narrow and checkable.
- The question wording ("raise") matches the rule ("higher than 3-3/4 to 4"), because that range is the current one (Fact 2). The baseline would only be stale if there had been an intermeeting change between September 16 and October 28. I found none, and even then the rule's fixed numeric threshold would still decide the outcome without ambiguity.

## Inferences (not facts)
- Reporting from mid-to-late October points to a hold being more likely, which would resolve NO. One blog citing CME FedWatch as of October 20 gave about 83% for a pause and about 17% for a 25 bp hike ([noradarealestate](https://www.noradarealestate.com/?p=86209)). A news report says policymakers lean against an October hike ([NST/Reuters](https://www.nst.com.my/amp/business/economy/2026/10/1545927/fed-policymakers-lean-against-october-rate-hike)). These figures are context only and do not affect whether the question is judgeable. I did not check them against CME directly.

## Uncertainty and minor issues (not grounds to decline)
- **Timing edge.** The deadline is the exact minute of the scheduled release. Resolution happens "after the deadline", so a statement released on time is in scope. If the release slips past 18:00 UTC but still comes out on October 28, the rule still applies, because it keys on "October 28", not on the deadline minute.
- **Time zone of "October 28".** The rule does not say which time zone. FOMC practice (Eastern Time) makes this immaterial unless the decision is published unusually late.
- **Postponed or rescheduled meeting.** INVALID applies, which is stated clearly.
- **Intermeeting action before October 28** (very unlikely). The fixed numeric threshold still decides the outcome.

## Unanswered questions
- What the actual decision will be. It is not knowable until the statement is released on 2026-10-28.

## Corrected SQF
Not required, because the verdict is ACCEPT. One optional clarification the proposer could add to §rule: "Dates are in U.S. Eastern Time; the decision is the target range stated in the FOMC statement released at the conclusion of the October 27–28, 2026 meeting."