{
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/151e0b1b16f90a1384b823bc528d6d1407f7b4bbfcc7966c12119fe483bfd326",
      "quote": "a *= (P['kLb'] if state.yes_inventory < ytg else P['kLf']) / P['kL']"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/40497298132dcc0ccc9f4c0672031c7eaae00ddcf8cf24983db989feeb3c5ca0",
      "quote": "Uses tiny tick probes, a sub-tick probability filter, and marginal retail-versus-arbitrage sizing to quote one tick inside the competitor."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/orderbook_pm_challenge/engine.py",
      "quote": "                process.step()\n                probability = process.current_true_probability()\n\n                step_fills = []\n                step_fills.extend(market.execute_arbitrage(probability=probability, step=step))"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/orderbook_pm_challenge/market.py",
      "quote": "            edge = fill.quantity * (probability - price) if fill.side is Side.BUY else fill.quantity * (price - probability)"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/orderbook_pm_challenge/runner.py",
      "quote": "        spread_ticks=rng.randint(\n            variance.competitor_spread_ticks_min,\n            variance.competitor_spread_ticks_max,\n        ),"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/orderbook_pm_challenge/process.py",
      "quote": "    \"\"\"Exact conditional probability that the terminal score finishes above zero.\n\n    The future increment is modeled as:\n\n    - Gaussian diffusion over the remaining steps\n    - plus a compound Poisson number of Gaussian jumps\n    \"\"\""
    }
  ]
}