{"key":"idea-posterior","idea":"posterior","tuning_paired":{"n":256,"mean_diff":-2.8215,"se":0.0714,"worst5":[[60210,-7.454],[60020,-6.8],[60066,-5.6],[60239,-5.341],[60084,-5.296]]},"holdout_paired":{"n":2048,"mean_diff":-2.8664,"se":0.0236,"sum":-5870.380115443325,"sumsq":19153.759341309127,"worst5":[[11303,-9.814],[10903,-7.562],[10401,-6.744],[10634,-6.627],[11209,-6.534]]},"misread_rate":{"lattice":0.1623946196942478,"mine":0.16100735694253177},"price_error_bps":{"lattice":13.647647707656684,"mine":13.939551310829085},"gas_estimate":"~48,400 posterior value contributions/afterSwap (121 cells x 25 quote pairs x 16 interpolation corners), plus lattice update. About 121 probability cells and ~10 scalar state fields (~130 slots uncompressed). Direct onchain search is far above 245k gas; likely >10M gas.","code_zb64":"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","code_sha256":"d319d568d72701aa1346a106eda511e781d90fd94cb6ee675119e9723a5aee3a","notes":"Implemented a blind lattice policy that sums DP value over retained posterior cells and searches a 5 bps action grid within +/-10 bps of the qm quote; cells below 1e-4 mass are omitted. DP_SAVEVN arrays were generated with DP_AMINL=-12, DP_NA=43 and solve(0.8,9.45,20); a small bundled native helper keeps the 121-cell search tractable. Tuning: -2.8215 on 256 seeds. Holdout: -2.8664 on all 2,048 seeds vs lattice_qm. On 60000..60255 diagnostics were 16.10% vs 16.22% misreads and 13.93 vs 13.64 bps RMS (mine vs lattice); holdout diagnostics were similarly flat. Edge fell, so this idea did not help. Next investigate explicit arb/retail hypotheses and quote information gain rather than changing quotes against the current posterior alone."}