{
  "market": "BTC",
  "direction": "short",
  "leverage": 800,
  "take_profit_bp": 16,
  "take_profit_price": 81386.0736,
  "bust_distance_bp": 7.7,
  "bust_price_estimate": 81579.26770499999,
  "expected_net_return_on_margin_pct": 99.54975444156318,
  "confidence": 0.35,
  "regime": "trending_down",
  "key_levels": {
    "support": 81439,
    "resistance": 81579
  },
  "entry_mid": 81516.5,
  "data_time_utc": "2026-10-20T11:25:06.631Z",
  "reasoning": "Hyperliquid POST https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info candleSnapshot, l2Book and metaAndAssetCtxs snapshots (saved in research/) favor BTC over ETH: before the latest rebound, 15-minute realized 1m close-return volatility was 2.42 versus 3.58 bp, while refreshed exact-book 10-bp ask/bid depth was $7.23m/$4.82m versus ETH $12.26m/$8.62m. BTC remains below its falling completed-5m EMA9 after a rebound from 81439 to the 81516.5 BBO mid; I infer a short opportunity into overhead supply, although the last completed 15m EMA9 slope was positive and the latest minute rebounded 6.26 bp. At 800x the 7.7-bp bust allowance exceeds the earlier 3.31-bp median minute range, while a 16-bp target below 81439 but above the six-hour low of 81300 seeks a substantial gain after the supplied haircut rather than a heavily taxed tiny win. Confidence is subjective and low: the initial 60-minute sample gave only 3 short target-first outcomes versus 24 bust-first and 3 unresolved for the nearby 850x/16-bp specification over 30 overlapping 30-minute windows, so these observations do not establish positive expected value.",
  "risks": "A continued rebound through approximately 81579.27 liquidates the position; the latest one-minute bounce already covered most of that distance. The target requires breaking 81439 support, displayed depth can vanish, and candle/trade snapshots cannot establish intraminute mid-price paths or a calibrated success probability."
}