```json
{"rows":[{"key":"item-oracle-next-probability","measurement":"Source: .imd/reads/artifacts/item-oracle-next-probability (SHA-256 23b46684d7a5a48583c2d0dc81399d26d3965f698a5ff2778acafadcbbe2b8bd), supplied item artifacts/goal/batches/r2-diagnose/items/oracle-next-probability/result.json; fields approach, tried, findings, next and diagnostic metadata. Incumbent SHA-256: baef955ec10728839f7c3357016ec9eb0550e7ec689bbd5171b1cdd5c9e37273. Replace only phat before inv(phat) with next-step truth; diagnostic oracle, not an admissible submission or guaranteed achievable gain. All other logic, including uncertainty and final-step override, retained. tried.instrumentation_invariance reports exact full-result equality on 20 pilot seeds. Complete is the reported timing-selected 500-seed block: 237500..237999 were not run; tried.timing_and_seed_count projects 1992.759510592441 seconds for 1000 pairs. No finalist evidence or promotion. Spread findings are conditional means, unlike contribution tables in belief/retail. Four independent serial OS processes were used for disjoint ranges per tried/reproducibility; this differs from the requested single-process execution profile.","seeds":{"start":237000,"end_inclusive":237499,"excluded":"237500..237999 not run; 900000..903999 untouched"},"n":500,"complete":true,"incumbent":{"mean":105.59281984014,"retail_mean":130.0047262930132,"arb_mean":-24.4119064528362,"se":8.289955364939026},"findings":[{"name":"incumbent","count":500,"mean":105.59281984014,"retail_mean":130.0047262930132,"arb_mean":-24.4119064528362,"se":8.289955364939026},{"name":"oracle","count":500,"mean":122.114383302711,"retail_mean":128.9292644928786,"arb_mean":-6.8148811901688005,"se":7.6711401273521425},{"name":"oracle_minus_B/competitor_spread_ticks=1","count":140,"mean":5.617950407692144,"retail_mean":-13.716580370888572,"arb_mean":19.334530778532145,"se":7.436974887471781},{"name":"oracle_minus_B/competitor_spread_ticks=2","count":111,"mean":11.591363285066667,"retail_mean":5.791444147277478,"arb_mean":5.799919137822522,"se":5.422038255451445},{"name":"oracle_minus_B/competitor_spread_ticks=3","count":133,"mean":30.000102669306013,"retail_mean":5.524828781802258,"arb_mean":24.475273887369926,"se":4.364778255363708},{"name":"oracle_minus_B/competitor_spread_ticks=4","count":116,"mean":18.944945642659484,"retail_mean":0.04256744422068772,"arb_mean":18.90237819845431,"se":4.206573561263741}],"paired":{"n":500,"mean_diff":16.521563462571,"se":2.8664084038396918,"retail_diff":-1.0754618001346,"arb_diff":17.5970252626674},"suggests":"[{\"change\":\"Improve sub-tick probability and jump estimation before quote sizing; use fill/probe evidence to reduce stale-price errors.\",\"edge_at_stake\":16.521563462571,\"se\":2.8664084038396918,\"interpretation\":\"Oracle-minus-B diagnostic headroom on this seed block, not a forecast of achievable strategy gain.\"},{\"change\":\"Use the improved probability forecast to cancel or reduce orders vulnerable to adverse selection, then test on separate seeds.\",\"edge_at_stake\":17.5970252626674,\"interpretation\"","failures":[],"flag":null},{"key":"item-belief-calibration","measurement":"Source: .imd/reads/artifacts/item-belief-calibration (SHA-256 b6ac7649a071ad5386e4e2ed7d7e5d5b39648113f26ae2a564f6183658f46bdc), supplied item artifacts/goal/batches/r2-diagnose/items/belief-calibration/result.json; fields approach, tried, findings, next and diagnostic metadata. Incumbent SHA-256: baef955ec10728839f7c3357016ec9eb0550e7ec689bbd5171b1cdd5c9e37273. Calibration of phat and bounds against previous-step truth; own-step fills supply edge contributions. findings copied in full, including overlapping callback classes; do not sum classes across partitions. MAE, bias, widths and errors are in ticks; out is a callback fraction; MAE/out SEs cluster by simulation. cf_* are counterfactual bounds on recorded B states, not changed-order trajectories or gains. identity_check reports 1000 exact total/retail/arb/failed comparisons, 0 mismatches. Source caveat from merge brief: two cited external sources failed re-read/support checks; their identities and failed passages are not supplied in this input. Treat simulator/strategy interpretations as item-reported, not independently source-verified; retain local numerical measurements with the supplied harness/identity report as evidence. No oracle run. approach/tried describe four processes on disjoint blocks, while notes say serial in-process: serial run_batch calls do not establish compliance with the requested single-OS-process 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a one-tick retreat of the competitor's best quote as evidence that p crossed it: in B's jumpinfo block set lo to at least ca-1 when ca > self.pca, and hi to at most cb+1 when cb < self.pcb, or better multiply the belief weights of the cell left behind by about 0.016 (the measured share of retreats that were not a crossing) instead of cutting hard, since a hard cut puts the truth outside the bounds on about 1.3% of those callbacks.\",\"evidence\":\"226,143 callbacks (11.3%): phat MAE ","failures":0,"flag":null},{"key":"item-collateral-binding","measurement":"Source: .imd/reads/artifacts/item-collateral-binding (SHA-256 62455e00b145fa83a071d0b3019fb776d34b116b2c338eebcfe13312224db33b), supplied item artifacts/goal/batches/r2-diagnose/items/collateral-binding/result.json; fields approach, tried, findings, next and diagnostic metadata. Incumbent SHA-256: baef955ec10728839f7c3357016ec9eb0550e7ec689bbd5171b1cdd5c9e37273. Observation-only one-step cumulative quote-extension replay, not a strategy or oracle trajectory. Local edge means and SEs use all 1000 simulations with zeros included. Temporary extensions are behind actual equal-price orders; stale extensions pay arbitrage before replaying actual retail flow; extensions disappear each step. method.quote_ladder fixes tranche order; marginal probability/horizon/cash buckets overlap. Physical-cash relaxation is collateral-infeasible virtual supply, not recoverable by a legal policy as measured. Count-only zeros mean unestimated effect, not zero opportunity. Upstream inventory, persistent-order and price-switch effects are not estimated. tried reports 20 exact full-result equivalence checks and 30375 baseline-replay checks within 1e-7, plus 3 synthetic tests. method reports a single serial OS process. No 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reserve=100 instead of 200 only when phat<0.01; keep the current expiry release. Edge-at-stake is the measured effect of full reserve removal in this belief bucket, not the predicted gain from halving it; re-measure whole trajectories.\",\"edge_at_stake\":{\"local_net_per_simulation\":0.21724846,\"retail\":0.21724851,\"additional_arb\":-6e-08,\"se\":0.04710296}},{\"change\":\"Test xu=0.05 instead of 0.10 only when 0.05<=phat<0.10, preserving fu and hard collateral checks. Edge-at-stake covers","failures":{"incumbent":0,"instrumentation":0,"seeds":[]},"flag":null},{"key":"item-retail-capture","measurement":"Source: .imd/reads/artifacts/item-retail-capture (SHA-256 50f88b0a30787a145b1f216242e1ae10ffc1ffcf93c3eb829d0df6e3d0c785d6), supplied item artifacts/goal/batches/r2-diagnose/items/retail-capture/result.json; fields approach, tried, findings, next and diagnostic metadata. Incumbent SHA-256: baef955ec10728839f7c3357016ec9eb0550e7ec689bbd5171b1cdd5c9e37273. Fill attribution by true post-move probability, spread and filler. findings_note: all edge entries are contributions divided by all 1000 simulations; count in probability rows means simulations with any fill, in spread rows means simulations of that spread. Share is B retail fill notional / all retail fill notional. Competitor retail edge is observed competing flow, not a tested gain; competitor arbitrage costs caution against simply copying its quotes. approach reports 20 pilot total/retail/arb results bit-identical with instrumentation, and logged fills summing to scored edges. Supplied code contains collection and aggregation; no independent reproduction was run for this merge. Low/high probability asymmetry explanation in findings_note is explicitly untested. Aggregator reads four p{k}.json outputs; code does not itself establish how processes were scheduled. No paired experiment or promotion.","seeds":"240000..240999","n":1000,"complete":true,"incumbent":{"mean":99.0554,"retail_mean":125.0629,"arb_mean":-26.0075,"se":5.416},"findings":[{"name":"all","count":1000,"mean":99.0554,"retail":125.0629,"arb":-26.0075,"se":5.416,"retail_se":5.6296,"B_share_retail_notional":0.3728,"retail_notional_per_sim":2063.2163,"competitor_retail_edge":70.2479,"competitor_retail_edge_se":2.0522,"competitor_arb_edge":-825.4649},{"name":"p_0.0-0.1","count":570,"mean":79.2694,"retail":92.6026,"arb":-13.3332,"se":4.8808,"retail_se":5.3793,"B_share_retail_notional":0.6322,"retail_notional_per_sim":244.7584,"competitor_retail_edge":25.2576,"competitor_retail_edge_se":1.5047,"competitor_arb_edge":-125.6774},{"name":"p_0.1-0.2","count":608,"mean":5.3704,"retail":8.188,"arb":-2.8176,"se":0.6061,"retail_se":0.5335,"B_share_retail_notional":0.3227,"retail_notional_per_sim":175.4108,"competitor_retail_edge":11.0819,"competitor_retail_edge_se":0.5924,"competitor_arb_edge":-116.4412},{"name":"p_0.2-0.3","count":694,"mean":3.8354,"retail":5.2658,"arb":-1.4305,"se":0.2961,"retail_se":0.3075,"B_share_retail_notional":0.289,"retail_notional_per_sim":194.8572,"competitor_retail_edge":8.1747,"competitor_retail_edge_se":0.4038,"competitor_arb_edge":-107.9715},{"name":"p_0.3-0.4","count":762,"mean":3.1214,"retail":4.3086,"arb":-1.1872,"se":0.2286,"retail_se":0.2337,"B_share_retail_notional":0.284,"retail_notional_per_sim":216.8223,"competitor_retail_edge":6.7017,"competitor_retail_edge_se":0.2843,"competitor_arb_edge":-100.3321},{"name":"p_0.4-0.5","count":795,"mean":2.4044,"retail":3.4388,"arb":-1.0344,"se":0.1681,"retail_se":0.1757,"B_share_retail_notional":0.2762,"retail_notional_per_sim":223.6676,"competitor_retail_edge":5.6251,"competitor_retail_edge_se":0.2207,"competitor_arb_edge":-86.0434},{"name":"p_0.5-0.6","count":788,"mean":0.7915,"retail":2.6962,"arb":-1.9047,"se":0.8624,"retail_se":0.1517,"B_share_retail_notional":0.2807,"retail_notional_per_sim":210.3091,"competitor_retail_edge":4.2128,"competitor_retail_edge_se":0.1756,"competitor_arb_edge":-85.7732},{"name":"p_0.6-0.7","count":737,"mean":1.3176,"retail":2.0113,"arb":-0.6937,"se":0.1411,"retail_se":0.1165,"B_share_retail_notional":0.2806,"retail_notional_per_sim":186.0767,"competitor_retail_edge":3.2435,"competitor_retail_edge_se":0.1654,"competitor_arb_edge":-57.9953},{"name":"p_0.7-0.8","count":665,"mean":-0.0205,"retail":1.7696,"arb":-1.7901,"se":1.2777,"retail_se":0.1064,"B_share_retail_notional":0.3039,"retail_notional_per_sim":178.109,"competitor_retail_edge":2.4717,"competitor_retail_edge_se":0.1405,"competitor_arb_edge":-55.4832},{"name":"p_0.8-0.9","count":574,"mean":0.9826,"retail":1.3816,"arb":-0.399,"se":0.0856,"retail_se":0.0955,"B_share_retail_notional":0.3366,"retail_notional_per_sim":156.8866,"competitor_retail_edge":1.7013,"competitor_retail_edge_se":0.0971,"competitor_arb_edge":-32.7938},{"name":"p_0.9-1.0","count":538,"mean":1.9833,"retail":3.4003,"arb":-1.417,"se":0.7673,"retail_se":0.2062,"B_share_retail_notional":0.5794,"retail_notional_per_sim":276.3187,"competitor_retail_edge":1.7774,"competitor_retail_edge_se":0.1045,"competitor_arb_edge":-56.9538},{"name":"spread_1","count":251,"mean":11.2831,"retail":17.4577,"arb":-6.1746,"se":1.8325,"retail_se":2.3387,"B_share_retail_notional":0.1016,"retail_notional_per_sim":523.6145,"competitor_retail_edge":24.8378,"competitor_retail_edge_se":1.9446,"competitor_arb_edge":-253.7396},{"name":"spread_2","count":232,"mean":14.8175,"retail":20.598,"arb":-5.7805,"se":2.365,"retail_se":2.4106,"B_share_retail_notional":0.3259,"retail_notional_per_sim":490.131,"competitor_retail_edge":16.464,"competitor_retail_edge_se":1.2665,"competitor_arb_edge":-214.9347},{"name":"spread_3","count":273,"mean":32.486,"retail":39.2554,"arb":-6.7694,"se":3.3401,"retail_se":3.67,"B_share_retail_notional":0.4853,"retail_notional_per_sim":548.9263,"competitor_retail_edge":16.157,"competitor_retail_edge_se":1.2132,"competitor_arb_edge":-183.3517},{"name":"spread_4","count":244,"mean":40.4689,"retail":47.7518,"arb":-7.2829,"se":4.0005,"retail_se":4.2479,"B_share_retail_notional":0.5792,"retail_notional_per_sim":500.5444,"competitor_retail_edge":12.7891,"competitor_retail_edge_se":0.99,"competitor_arb_edge":-173.439},{"name":"spread_1_tails<0.2","count":160,"mean":11.3347,"retail":17.2721,"arb":-5.9374,"se":1.8314,"retail_se":2.3391,"B_share_retail_notional":0.2728,"retail_notional_per_sim":112.7542,"competitor_retail_edge":14.5699,"competitor_retail_edge_se":1.5602,"competitor_arb_edge":-71.5979},{"name":"spread_1_mid0.2-0.8","count":251,"mean":-0.1598,"retail":0.0158,"arb":-0.1757,"se":0.0874,"retail_se":0.0019,"B_share_retail_notional":0.0021,"retail_notional_per_sim":302.8249,"competitor_retail_edge":9.1117,"competitor_retail_edge_se":0.6716,"competitor_arb_edge":-161.7556},{"name":"spread_1_tails>0.8","count":149,"mean":0.1083,"retail":0.1698,"arb":-0.0615,"se":0.0169,"retail_se":0.0222,"B_share_retail_notional":0.2019,"retail_notional_per_sim":108.0355,"competitor_retail_edge":1.1562,"competitor_retail_edge_se":0.1237,"competitor_arb_edge":-20.386},{"name":"spread_2_tails<0.2","count":143,"mean":13.9263,"retail":17.0763,"arb":-3.1501,"se":1.9802,"retail_se":2.3413,"B_share_retail_notional":0.4552,"retail_notional_per_sim":90.3382,"competitor_retail_edge":7.4713,"competitor_retail_edge_se":0.8224,"competitor_arb_edge":-60.5949},{"name":"spread_2_mid0.2-0.8","count":232,"mean":0.1354,"retail":2.5912,"arb":-2.4558,"se":1.2722,"retail_se":0.179,"B_share_retail_notional":0.2154,"retail_notional_per_sim":288.7729,"competitor_retail_edge":8.1272,"competitor_retail_edge_se":0.6252,"competitor_arb_edge":-127.6136},{"name":"spread_2_tails>0.8","count":143,"mean":0.7557,"retail":0.9304,"arb":-0.1747,"se":0.0874,"retail_se":0.1025,"B_share_retail_notional":0.5081,"retail_notional_per_sim":111.0198,"competitor_retail_edge":0.8654,"competitor_retail_edge_se":0.0917,"competitor_arb_edge":-26.7262},{"name":"spread_3_tails<0.2","count":165,"mean":26.8206,"retail":30.6102,"arb":-3.7896,"se":3.1603,"retail_se":3.4916,"B_share_retail_notional":0.6059,"retail_notional_per_sim":110.8258,"competitor_retail_edge":7.9145,"competitor_retail_edge_se":0.8619,"competitor_arb_edge":-53.6661},{"name":"spread_3_mid0.2-0.8","count":273,"mean":4.8206,"retail":7.0403,"arb":-2.2197,"se":0.3605,"retail_se":0.4482,"B_share_retail_notional":0.4035,"retail_notional_per_sim":328.5864,"competitor_retail_edge":7.4981,"competitor_retail_edge_se":0.543,"competitor_arb_edge":-106.6129},{"name":"spread_3_tails>0.8","count":160,"mean":0.8448,"retail":1.605,"arb":-0.7602,"se":0.5161,"retail_se":0.1575,"B_share_retail_notional":0.6088,"retail_notional_per_sim":109.5142,"competitor_retail_edge":0.7444,"competitor_retail_edge_se":0.0786,"competitor_arb_edge":-23.0727},{"name":"spread_4_tails<0.2","count":155,"mean":32.5583,"retail":35.832,"arb":-3.2737,"se":3.678,"retail_se":3.942,"B_share_retail_notional":0.6805,"retail_notional_per_sim":106.251,"competitor_retail_edge":6.3838,"competitor_retail_edge_se":0.7036,"competitor_arb_edge":-56.2597},{"name":"spread_4_mid0.2-0.8","count":244,"mean":6.6534,"retail":9.843,"arb":-3.1895,"se":1.0055,"retail_se":0.6623,"B_share_retail_notional":0.5164,"retail_notional_per_sim":289.6576,"competitor_retail_edge":5.6927,"competitor_retail_edge_se":0.4324,"competitor_arb_edge":-97.6166},{"name":"spread_4_tails>0.8","count":144,"mean":1.2571,"retail":2.0768,"arb":-0.8197,"se":0.5848,"retail_se":0.2193,"B_share_retail_notional":0.65,"retail_notional_per_sim":104.6358,"competitor_retail_edge":0.7127,"competitor_retail_edge_se":0.0821,"competitor_arb_edge":-19.5627},{"name":"retail_orders_by_filler","count":511176,"per_sim":{"B_only":201.521,"split":129.939,"C_only":145.611,"none":34.105},"share":{"B_only":0.3942,"split":0.2542,"C_only":0.2849,"none":0.0667}}],"paired":null,"suggests":"[\"Spread-1 markets, 0.2<p<0.8: B takes 0.2% of retail notional, and the competitor earns 9.11 retail edge per simulation (averaged over all 1000; about 36 per spread-1 simulation). Test joining the competitor's best tick, or a tick that ties it, when the spread is 1 and p is mid-range, accepting queue position behind the competitor. At stake: at most ~9 per simulation, less any added arbitrage loss.\",\"Spread-2 markets, mid-range p: B's share is 21.5% and the competitor earns 8.13 per simulation,","failures":0,"flag":null},{"key":"item-pairing-audit","measurement":"Source: .imd/reads/artifacts/item-pairing-audit (SHA-256 36d9f81449f5e28b871799981b32853c34303a129265b1bbaddc9b0147e070b9), supplied item artifacts/goal/batches/r2-diagnose/items/pairing-audit/result.json; fields approach, tried, findings, next and diagnostic metadata. Incumbent SHA-256: baef955ec10728839f7c3357016ec9eb0550e7ec689bbd5171b1cdd5c9e37273. Exogenous common-random-number audit of B versus fixed simplify. paired remains null because no oracle-minus-B experiment exists; the whole B-minus-simplify paired table is preserved in findings without changing its sign. pairing_audit reports paired SE 0.5610380882114246 versus unpaired SE 6.608127150387244; target SE 0.25 requires estimated total 5037 paired seeds (4037 additional), not a guarantee. evidence reports exact latent paths, retail sequences and sampled regimes matching on all 1000 seeds; endogenous books/fills/inventory differ. Instrumented/plain full results match on 20 pilot seeds. simplify-minus-B is -2.2652883286786003, SE 0.5610380882114246 per next, not a promotion. No finalist seeds run.","seeds":{"start":241000,"end_inclusive":241999,"role":"fixed diagnostic evaluation; no tuning or finalist seeds"},"n":1000,"complete":true,"incumbent":{"mean":91.336495610556,"retail_mean":116.0825007424162,"arb_mean":-24.7460051318298,"se":4.668341125789028},"findings":[{"name":"B","count":1000,"mean":91.336495610556,"retail_mean":116.0825007424162,"arb_mean":-24.7460051318298,"se":4.668341125789028,"retail_se":4.977582578319656,"arb_se":1.53428792694876,"sd":147.62590852127946},{"name":"simplify","count":1000,"mean":89.0712072818774,"retail_mean":111.6852918346979,"arb_mean":-22.6140845528033,"se":4.676957939617574,"retail_se":4.841474402454461,"arb_se":1.7030058097134533,"sd":147.89839609999785},{"name":"B_minus_simplify_paired_difference","count":1000,"mean":2.2652883286786003,"retail_mean":4.3972089077183005,"arb_mean":-2.1319205790265,"se":0.5610380882114246,"retail_se":0.42995785792518687,"arb_se":0.43522622280411516,"sd":17.741582128545648}],"paired":null,"suggests":"[{\"change\":\"Evaluate replacing B with the supplied simplify policy as a whole-policy simplification. This is the only concrete strategy change measured here; require independent finalist evaluation before any promotion.\",\"edge_at_stake\":{\"simplify_minus_B\":-2.2652883286786003,\"se\":0.5610380882114246,\"retail_difference\":-4.3972089077183005,\"arbitrage_difference\":2.1319205790265},\"reason\":\"Common paths make this comparison meaningful. The policies bundle multiple changes, so this audit does not id","failures":[],"flag":null},{"key":"item-submission-audit","measurement":"Source: .imd/reads/artifacts/item-submission-audit (SHA-256 fd6fb6f621e00cbe9eded1d83e53ca4dd1039cc9e1399f29c98faf36eca20d8b), supplied item artifacts/goal/batches/r2-diagnose/items/submission-audit/result.json; fields approach, tried, findings, next and diagnostic metadata. Incumbent SHA-256: baef955ec10728839f7c3357016ec9eb0550e7ec689bbd5171b1cdd5c9e37273. Static readiness audit plus serial default-config timing/failure measurement; no candidate, oracle or actual sandbox execution. tried.instrumentation_equivalence reports 20 exact full-result comparisons; pilot duplicates excluded from n. timing reports mean on_step seconds 2.83300342295e-05, largest callback 0.000523487, maximum live own orders 195, ahead set 696 and res dictionary 608; min free cash 2.0001. Source caveat from merge brief: one cited external source failed re-read/support checks; its identity and passage are not supplied. audit.sources lists pinned raw GitHub files, but source-derived import/builtin/syscall/resource-policy and compatibility conclusions remain unverified here and cannot certify sandbox or leaderboard readiness. Observed absence of in-process failures is limited to this block. next intended housekeeping edge 0.0 is not measured. No promotion.","seeds":{"start":242000,"end_inclusive":242999,"pilot_start":242000,"pilot_end_inclusive":242019,"finalist_seeds_used":false},"n":1000,"complete":true,"incumbent":{"mean":108.615826909827,"retail_mean":135.0031322721823,"arb_mean":-26.3873053623726,"se":5.623689634963503},"findings":[{"name":"all successful simulations","count":1000,"mean":108.615826909827,"retail_mean":135.0031322721823,"arb_mean":-26.3873053623726,"se":5.623689634963503},{"name":"competitor_spread_ticks=1","count":239,"mean":43.003408811701256,"retail_mean":74.68767442404561,"arb_mean":-31.68426561230209,"se":8.592968522434346},{"name":"competitor_spread_ticks=2","count":239,"mean":96.98805624692511,"retail_mean":117.33084489036486,"arb_mean":-20.342788643380754,"se":9.837083327516169},{"name":"competitor_spread_ticks=3","count":237,"mean":117.71977125674177,"retail_mean":144.47108930545022,"arb_mean":-26.75131804877595,"se":10.907778618055882},{"name":"competitor_spread_ticks=4","count":285,"mean":165.81852972971052,"retail_mean":192.53002803735615,"arb_mean":-26.711498307735088,"se":12.780866287256886}],"paired":null,"suggests":"[{\"change\":\"Optionally prune self.ahead and self.res to currently live own-order IDs each step to bound bookkeeping growth. Filled orders are not removed by cancel(), so stale entries accumulate. No candidate was built.\",\"edge_at_stake\":0.0,\"interpretation\":\"Intended semantics-preserving housekeeping: stale IDs are only consulted for live own_orders. Zero is the intended direct edge change, not a measured paired result; validate equivalence before adopting.\",\"measured_paired_gain\":null}]","failures":[],"flag":null}],"levers":"Ranked opportunity scales per simulation; overlapping, nonadditive, not forecasts. 1. item-retail-capture: competitor retail edge 70.2479 overall; targeted spread_1_mid0.2-0.8 9.1117 (SE 0.6716), spread_2_mid0.2-0.8 8.1272 (SE 0.6252). Observed gross flow, added arbitrage unknown. 2. item-oracle-next-probability: oracle-minus-B +16.521563462571 (SE 2.8664084038396918); arb +17.5970252626674, retail -1.0754618001346. Diagnostic foresight only. 3. item-belief-calibration: next reports jump-step arb -13.74; findings p[1,5) jump -7.0419 (arb SE 1.2693); no-jump arb -13.4467 (arb SE 0.5864). One-tick retreat callbacks lose -3.57 arb per next; recovery unmeasured. External-source caveat applies. 4. item-pairing-audit: findings B-minus-simplify +2.2652883286786003 (SE 0.5610380882114246); simplify is worse on this block. 5. item-collateral-binding: all_direct_cuts_combined local +0.85329022 (SE 0.28255025), includes infeasible physical-cash +0.72882063; reserve +0.26110677, uncovered policy +0.19012141. Trajectory gains unmeasured. 6. item-submission-audit: intended bookkeeping edge 0.0 in next, not measured; no observed failure. No finalist evidence or promotion in these inputs; retain B at baef955e... ."}
```