{"sources": [{"url": "https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/151e0b1b16f90a1384b823bc528d6d1407f7b4bbfcc7966c12119fe483bfd326", "quote": "\"approach\": \"Started from the spread-4 source file (its changes are the most invasive and are all guarded by self.s == 4, including its own"}, {"url": "https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/40497298132dcc0ccc9f4c0672031c7eaae00ddcf8cf24983db989feeb3c5ca0", "quote": "\"approach\": \"Uses tiny tick probes, a sub-tick probability filter, and marginal retail-versus-arbitrage sizing to quote one tick inside the competitor. Starting from the exactly"}, {"url": "https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/ad3b2ad91284e519d0c80ecfe18eac37e0853b90703d564341744a9639e2a761", "quote": "\"approach\": \"Spread 3 only: cap the routine ammunition inventory target at min(existing target, current desired main/front ask quantity qa). The ledger identified routine above-fair"}, {"url": "https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/61d3ba0c42cd1e20117ad7e31d1b2c8aad12f63f5075d11cdd5af9d277213b66", "quote": "\"approach\": \"For spread 1 only, split each new ordinary SELL quote at ticks 3 through 98 equally: retain half at its original price and"}, {"url": "https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/c7f4f274520f484181ba0e664f87875a63b1b410c8c8fbb66cd5d32448cfbabd", "quote": "\"approach\": \"Spread 1 only: in the broad ammunition-purchase branch, replace the bid at ceil(100*phat) with the previous tick only when that tick is at"}, {"url": "https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/cabede3c4180c49f8c5b5d6746b51f47bff599a891a34d9777555c81ee7dfcb1", "quote": "\"approach\": \"Spread 2 only (every change is under self.s == 2). Measured on the start file: on the step after the arbitrageur fully takes"}, {"url": "https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/1d3fdd0207683d66c09de9f06c83f6cb8ea9f61f5e1f1143b22a9e740e8cc2e3", "quote": "\"approach\":\"In spread 2 only, the target-stock branch now buys only at tick 1 instead of paying up to tick 2. Keep tick-1 stocking, both"}, {"url": "https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/d8a185edb6be4d9a8805e417809ae476278d873633703ae3f9fe85f18379d3c4", "quote": "\"approach\": \"Spread 3 only: when probability estimate is below the existing low-price boundary and YES inventory already covers inferred retail-buy flow times the entire"}, {"url": "https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/92ec7378991a8902017d1081c92c85c479af1c145e0763f9d12f33bb124096e3", "quote": "\"approach\": \"In spread-3 runs only (guard self.s != 3 added to one condition), drop the first ammunition branch: the bid for YES stock placed"}, {"url": "https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/be28481bad801e43bc8216b42bef60a70442b4365aa8252cb49d5208f253206a", "quote": "\"approach\":\"For spread 4 only, remove the special low-price bid-risk discount by setting kLb and kLf to the existing kL during initialization. Separate crossing-cover and"}, {"url": "https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/f3dbc5ccc00ed338fd02259601dca57f385ca460999e4f3e66fab4f213945718", "quote": "\"approach\": \"Spread 4 only. The start file locates p inside the gap of five or more ticks between its main quotes with 0.01-share probes"}, {"url": "https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/b3068290c77e8999273e639d0931ec3be3d337b4be9fe41655995b1ef43b0cd6", "quote": "\"approach\": \"Spread 4 only: cap the routine ceil-tick stock-buying target at min(the existing flow-scaled remaining-retail target, the current desired ask quantity qa). Once the"}, {"url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/orderbook_pm_challenge/runner.py", "quote": "        spread_ticks=rng.randint(\n            variance.competitor_spread_ticks_min,\n            variance.competitor_spread_ticks_max,\n        ),\n    )"}, {"url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/orderbook_pm_challenge/results.py", "quote": "class SimulationResult:\n    seed: int\n    failed: bool\n    error: str | None\n    regime: RegimeSummary\n    total_edge: float\n    retail_edge: float\n    arb_edge: float\n    traded_quantity: float\n    traded_notional: float\n    fill_count: int"}, {"url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/orderbook_pm_challenge/config.py", "quote": "class ParameterVariance:\n    \"\"\"Recommended simulation-randomization bands.\"\"\"\n\n    initial_score_min: float = -0.75\n    initial_score_max: float = 0.75\n    jump_intensity_min: float = 0.0008\n    jump_intensity_max: float = 0.0030\n    jump_sigma_min:"}, {"url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/orderbook_pm_challenge/loader.py", "quote": "def load_strategy_factory(strategy_path: str):\n    path = pathlib.Path(strategy_path).expanduser().resolve()\n    if not path.exists():\n        raise FileNotFoundError(f\"Strategy file does not exist: {path}\")\n\n    module_name = f\"orderbook_pm_strategy"}, {"url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/orderbook_pm_challenge/cli.py", "quote": "print(json.dumps(asdict(batch), indent=2))\n        return 0\n\n    print(f\"Simulations: {len(batch.simulation_results)}\")\n    print(f\"Successes: {batch.success_count}\")\n    print(f\"Failures: {batch.failure_count}\")\n    print(f\"Mean Edge: {batch.mean_ed"}, {"url": "https://downloads.python.org/pypy/versions.json", "quote": "[\n  {\n    \"pypy_version\": \"8.0.1\",\n    \"python_version\": \"3.12.15\",\n    \"stable\": true,\n    \"latest_pypy\": true,\n    \"date\": \"2026-10-14\",\n    \"files\": [\n      {\n        \"filename\": \"pypy3.12-v8.0.1-aarch64.tar.gz\",\n        \"arch\": \"aarch64\",\n        \"platform\": \"linux\",\n        \"download_url\": \"https://downloads.python.org/pypy/pypy3.12-v8.0.1-aarch64.tar.gz\"\n      },"}, {"url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/orderbook_pm_challenge/engine.py", "quote": "class SimulationEngine:\n    def __init__(self, config: ChallengeConfig, strategy_factory, *, seed: int) -> None:\n        self._config = config\n        self._strategy_factory = strategy_factory\n        self._seed = seed\n\n    def run(self) ->"}, {"url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/pyproject.toml", "quote": "[project]\nname = \"orderbook-pm-challenge\"\nversion = \"0.1.0\"\ndescription = \"FIFO orderbook prediction market trading challenge\"\nrequires-python = \">=3.10\"\ndependencies = []\n\n[project.optional-dependencies]\nscientific ="}]}