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SPDX-License-Identifier: MIT\npragma solidity ^0.8.24;\n\nimport {AMMStrategyBase} from \"./AMMStrategyBase.sol\";\nimport {TradeInfo} from \"./IAMMStrategy.sol\";\n\ncontract Strategy is AMMStrategyBase {\n    uint256 constant ELAPSED_CAP = 8;\n    uint256 constant SIGNAL_THRESHOLD = WAD / 650;\n    uint256 constant DIR_DECAY = 750000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant ACT_DECAY = 530000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant SIZE_DECAY = 530000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant TOX_DECAY = 910000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant SIGMA_DECAY = 690000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant LAMBDA_DECAY = 990000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant SIZE_BLEND_DECAY = 828000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant TOX_BLEND_DECAY = 51000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant ACT_BLEND_DECAY = 985000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant PHAT_ALPHA = 270000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant PHAT_ALPHA_RETAIL = 60000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant PHAT_ALPHA_SAME = 120000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant REVERT_U = 0;\n    uint256 constant DIR_IMPACT_MULT = 4;\n    uint256 constant GATE_SIGMA_MULT = 7200000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant MIN_GATE = 30000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant RET_CAP = WAD / 35;\n    uint256 constant TOX_CAP = WAD / 5;\n    uint256 constant TRADE_RATIO_CAP = WAD / 5;\n    uint256 constant LAMBDA_CAP = 1820000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant STEP_COUNT_CAP = 64;\n    uint256 constant BASE_FEE = 4 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant DIR_COEF = 20 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant DIR_TOX_COEF = 100 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant SIGMA_TOX_COEF = 500 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant TAIL_KNEE = 600 * BPS;\n\n    function afterInitialize(uint256 initialX, uint256 initialY) external override returns (uint256, uint256) {\n        slots[0] = BASE_FEE; slots[1] = BASE_FEE; slots[3] = WAD; \n        slots[5] = initialX > 0 ? wdiv(initialY, initialX) : 100 * WAD;\n        slots[6] = 950000000000000; slots[7] = 800000000000000000; slots[8] = 2000000000000000;\n        slots[13] = 902500000000; slots[14] = slots[5]; \n        return (BASE_FEE, BASE_FEE);\n    }\n\n    function afterSwap(TradeInfo calldata trade) external override returns (uint256, uint256) {\n        uint256 prevBidFee = slots[0]; uint256 prevAskFee = slots[1]; uint256 lastTs = uint64(slots[2]);\n        uint256 dirState = slots[3]; uint256 actEma = slots[4]; uint256 pHat = slots[5];\n        uint256 sigmaHat = slots[6]; uint256 lambdaHat = slots[7]; uint256 sizeHat = slots[8];\n        uint256 toxEma = slots[9]; uint256 stepTradeCount = slots[10];\n\n        uint256 sigmaForFast = sigmaHat;\n        uint256 fastHat = slots[14];\n        uint256 uncertainty = slots[13];\n        uint256 silent = trade.timestamp > lastTs ? trade.timestamp - lastTs : 0;\n        bool isNewStep = trade.timestamp > lastTs;\n        if (isNewStep) {\n            uint256 elapsedRaw = trade.timestamp - lastTs;\n            uint256 elapsed = elapsedRaw > ELAPSED_CAP ? ELAPSED_CAP : elapsedRaw;\n            dirState = _decayCentered(dirState, DIR_DECAY, elapsed);\n            actEma = wmul(actEma, _powWad(ACT_DECAY, elapsed));\n            sizeHat = wmul(sizeHat, _powWad(SIZE_DECAY, elapsed));\n            toxEma = wmul(toxEma, _powWad(TOX_DECAY, elapsed));\n            if (stepTradeCount > 0 && elapsedRaw > 0) {\n                uint256 lambdaInst = (stepTradeCount * WAD) / elapsedRaw;\n                if (lambdaInst > LAMBDA_CAP) lambdaInst = LAMBDA_CAP;\n                lambdaHat = wmul(lambdaHat, LAMBDA_DECAY) + wmul(lambdaInst, WAD - LAMBDA_DECAY);\n            }\n            uncertainty += wmul(sigmaForFast, sigmaForFast) * elapsedRaw;\n            if (uncertainty > 100000000000000) uncertainty = 100000000000000;\n            stepTradeCount = 0;\n        }\n\n        bool firstInStep = stepTradeCount == 0;\n        uint256 spot = trade.reserveX > 0 ? wdiv(trade.reserveY, trade.reserveX) : pHat;\n        if (pHat == 0) pHat = spot;\n\n        uint256 feeUsed = trade.isBuy ? prevBidFee : prevAskFee;\n        uint256 gamma = feeUsed < WAD ? WAD - feeUsed : 0;\n        uint256 pImplied;\n        if (gamma == 0) { pImplied = spot; }\n        else { pImplied = trade.isBuy ? wmul(spot, gamma) : wdiv(spot, gamma); }\n\n        // S: infer a no-trade interval center from the last post-trade spot.\n        uint256 silenceScale = WAD;\n        if (firstInStep && silent > 1) {\n            uint256 g = silent - 1;\n            if (g > 1) g = 1;\n            uint256 w = WAD - _powWad(800000000000000000, g);\n            uint256 s = slots[2] >> 64;\n            if (s == 0) s = pHat;\n            uint256 c = (wmul(s, WAD - prevBidFee) + wdiv(s, WAD - prevAskFee)) / 2;\n            if (c >= pHat) pHat += wmul(w, c - pHat);\n            else pHat -= wmul(w, pHat - c);\n            silenceScale = WAD - wmul(300000000000000000, w);\n        }\n\n        {\n            uint256 ret = pHat > 0 ? wdiv(absDiff(pImplied, pHat), pHat) : 0;\n            uint256 alpha = firstInStep ? PHAT_ALPHA : PHAT_ALPHA_RETAIL;\n            uint256 prePhat = pHat;\n            bool secondPrint = !firstInStep && stepTradeCount == 1;\n            bool sameDir = false; bool oppDir = false;\n            if (secondPrint) {\n                bool up2 = pImplied >= pHat;\n                uint256 d1 = slots[12];\n                if (d1 != 0) { sameDir = (d1 == 1) == up2; oppDir = !sameDir; }\n                if (sameDir) alpha = PHAT_ALPHA_SAME;\n            }\n            if (firstInStep) { slots[12] = pImplied >= pHat ? 1 : 2; }\n            uint256 adaptiveGate = wmul(sigmaHat, GATE_SIGMA_MULT);\n            if (adaptiveGate < MIN_GATE) adaptiveGate = MIN_GATE;\n            alpha = wmul(alpha, silenceScale);\n            adaptiveGate = wmul(adaptiveGate, silenceScale);\n            if (ret <= adaptiveGate) { pHat = wmul(pHat, WAD - alpha) + wmul(pImplied, alpha); }\n            if (oppDir && REVERT_U > 0) {\n                uint256 pre = slots[11];\n                if (pre > pHat) pHat = pHat + wmul(pre - pHat, REVERT_U);\n                else pHat = pHat - wmul(pHat - pre, REVERT_U);\n            }\n            if (firstInStep) {\n                if (ret > RET_CAP) ret = RET_CAP;\n                sigmaHat = wmul(sigmaHat, SIGMA_DECAY) + wmul(ret, WAD - SIGMA_DECAY);\n            }\n        }\n\n        // Interior retail routing equalizes fee-adjusted marginal prices.\n        // Subsequent trades in a step cannot be the initial arbitrage trade.\n        if (!firstInStep && feeUsed > 30 * BPS && gamma > 0) {\n            uint256 normalSpot = trade.isBuy\n                ? wdiv(wmul(spot, gamma), WAD - 30 * BPS)\n                : wdiv(wmul(spot, WAD - 30 * BPS), gamma);\n            pHat = wmul(pHat, 90 * WAD / 100) + wmul(normalSpot, 10 * WAD / 100);\n        }\n\n        {\n            uint256 ret = fastHat > 0 ? wdiv(absDiff(pImplied, fastHat), fastHat) : 0;\n            uint256 alpha;\n            if (firstInStep) {\n                uint256 processSigma = sigmaForFast;\n                uint256 obsVar = uncertainty + wmul(processSigma, processSigma);\n                uint256 probArb;\n                uint256 z2 = wdiv(wmul(ret, ret), obsVar);\n                uint256 density = _powWad(wdiv(WAD, WAD + z2 / 16), 8);\n                uint256 sigmaObs = _isqrt(obsVar * WAD);\n                uint256 odds = wmul(density, wdiv(6700000000000000, sigmaObs));\n                bool arbFlag = ret <= wmul(sigmaForFast, 1220000000000000000);\n                uint256 prior = arbFlag ? 650000000000000000 : 400000000000000000;\n                uint256 tr = trade.reserveY > 0 ? wdiv(trade.amountY, trade.reserveY) : 0;\n                if (tr > 3000000000000000) prior = wmul(prior, 6 * WAD / 10);\n                if (silent > 1) prior = wmul(prior, 8 * WAD / 10);\n                odds = wmul(odds, wdiv(prior, WAD - prior));\n                probArb = wdiv(odds, WAD + odds);\n                alpha = wmul(probArb, 600000000000000000) + wmul(WAD - probArb, 80000000000000000);\n                slots[15] = pImplied >= fastHat ? 1 : 2;\n                uncertainty = wmul(uncertainty, WAD - alpha);\n            } else {\n                if ((slots[15] == 1) == (pImplied >= fastHat)) alpha = PHAT_ALPHA_RETAIL;\n            }\n            uint256 gate = wmul(sigmaHat, GATE_SIGMA_MULT);\n            if (gate < MIN_GATE) gate = MIN_GATE;\n            if (ret <= gate) fastHat = wmul(fastHat, WAD - alpha) + wmul(pImplied, alpha);\n            slots[13] = uncertainty;\n        }\n\n        if (!firstInStep && feeUsed > 30 * BPS && gamma > 0) {\n            uint256 normalObs = trade.isBuy\n                ? wdiv(wmul(spot, gamma), WAD - 30 * BPS)\n                : wdiv(wmul(spot, WAD - 30 * BPS), gamma);\n            if ((slots[15] == 1) == (normalObs >= fastHat)) {\n                fastHat = wmul(fastHat, 9 * WAD / 10) + wmul(normalObs, WAD / 10);\n            }\n        }\n        slots[14] = fastHat;\n        uint256[15] memory P;\n        {\n            uint256 rg = firstInStep ? (silent > 1 ? 0 : 1) : (stepTradeCount == 1 ? 2 : 3);\n            if (rg == 0) { P[0] = 376254037577306; P[1] = 252981753746578336; P[2] = 1042604132292908; P[3] = 634602008737375232; P[4] = 23431877501027896; P[5] = 1276427433559491840; P[6] = 11151739609759068160; P[7] = 654400034665982336; P[8] = 1199962329441864960; P[9] = 466022145012906432; P[10] = 1337670016921898496; P[11] = 964139843040571264; P[12] = 2129109099854219; P[13] = 2728118803404694; P[14] = 2648342163266112; }\n            else if (rg == 1) { P[0] = 224519945449277; P[1] = 151519960166953120; P[2] = 1524126648945119; P[3] = 423942589738398528; P[4] = 34677719162730000; P[5] = 1722824522355268096; P[6] = 11001102604513232896; P[7] = 660910769972599552; P[8] = 1238362774646960128; P[9] = 369308801493271936; P[10] = 1432225183416751360; P[11] = 639723690466846592; P[12] = 1701999317659066; P[13] = 9310215970104700; P[14] = 2696983282169974; }\n            else if (rg == 2) { P[0] = 267619058843972; P[1] = 238463764161359168; P[2] = 1226201962470300; P[3] = 647875173626692736; P[4] = 24205923638559508; P[5] = 797929611237667712; P[6] = 6227005160059340800; P[7] = 690778234609379840; P[8] = 954937070124129280; P[9] = 289522540615149760; P[10] = 575526104112587648; P[11] = 897520848379074432; P[12] = 1727203504539465; P[13] = 3001800540108016; P[14] = 3326211090261676; }\n            else { P[0] = 274915711516389; P[1] = 176517031337497088; P[2] = 1383368624303739; P[3] = 525525147976956672; P[4] = 30827198906183040; P[5] = 1152536433658842624; P[6] = 5922125991117583360; P[7] = 696048149503175040; P[8] = 1078412620582068096; P[9] = 558041400728783424; P[10] = 1525968525510817024; P[11] = 750122367196905984; P[12] = 765599286529369; P[13] = 4611772570644844; P[14] = 2640409042407442; }\n        }\n        uint256 tradeRatio = trade.reserveY > 0 ? wdiv(trade.amountY, trade.reserveY) : 0;\n        if (tradeRatio > TRADE_RATIO_CAP) tradeRatio = TRADE_RATIO_CAP;\n\n        if (tradeRatio > SIGNAL_THRESHOLD) {\n            uint256 push = tradeRatio * DIR_IMPACT_MULT;\n            if (push > WAD / 4) push = WAD / 4;\n            if (trade.isBuy) {\n                dirState = dirState + push;\n                if (dirState > 2 * WAD) dirState = 2 * WAD;\n            } else {\n                dirState = dirState > push ? dirState - push : 0;\n            }\n            actEma = wmul(actEma, ACT_BLEND_DECAY) + wmul(tradeRatio, WAD - ACT_BLEND_DECAY);\n            sizeHat = wmul(sizeHat, SIZE_BLEND_DECAY) + wmul(tradeRatio, WAD - SIZE_BLEND_DECAY);\n            if (sizeHat > WAD) sizeHat = WAD;\n        }\n\n        uint256 tox = pHat > 0 ? wdiv(absDiff(spot, pHat), pHat) : 0;\n        if (tox > TOX_CAP) tox = TOX_CAP;\n        toxEma = wmul(toxEma, TOX_BLEND_DECAY) + wmul(tox, WAD - TOX_BLEND_DECAY);\n        uint256 toxSignal = toxEma;\n\n        stepTradeCount = stepTradeCount + 1;\n        if (stepTradeCount > STEP_COUNT_CAP) stepTradeCount = STEP_COUNT_CAP;\n\n        uint256 flowSize = wmul(lambdaHat, sizeHat);\n        uint256 fBase = P[0] + wmul(P[1], sigmaHat) + wmul(P[2], lambdaHat) + wmul(P[3], flowSize);\n        uint256 fMid = fBase + wmul(P[4], toxSignal) + wmul(P[5], wmul(toxSignal, toxSignal)) + wmul(P[6], actEma);\n        fMid = fMid + wmul(SIGMA_TOX_COEF, wmul(sigmaHat, toxSignal));\n\n        uint256 dirDev; bool sellPressure;\n        if (dirState >= WAD) { dirDev = dirState - WAD; sellPressure = true; }\n        else { dirDev = WAD - dirState; sellPressure = false; }\n\n        uint256 skew = wmul(DIR_COEF, dirDev) + wmul(DIR_TOX_COEF, wmul(dirDev, toxSignal));\n        uint256 bidFee; uint256 askFee;\n        if (sellPressure) {\n            bidFee = fMid + skew;\n            askFee = fMid > skew ? fMid - skew : 0;\n        } else {\n            askFee = fMid + skew;\n            bidFee = fMid > skew ? fMid - skew : 0;\n        }\n\n        {\n            uint256 staleHat = wmul(pHat, 700000000000000000) + wmul(fastHat, 300000000000000000);\n            uint256 staleTox = wdiv(absDiff(spot, staleHat), staleHat);\n            if (staleTox > TOX_CAP) staleTox = TOX_CAP;\n            uint256 staleShift = wmul(P[7], staleTox);\n            uint256 attractShift = wmul(staleShift, P[8]);\n            if (spot >= staleHat) {\n                bidFee = bidFee + staleShift;\n                askFee = askFee > attractShift ? askFee - attractShift : 0;\n            } else {\n                askFee = askFee + staleShift;\n                bidFee = bidFee > attractShift ? bidFee - attractShift : 0;\n            }\n        }\n\n        {\n            bool tradeAligned = (trade.isBuy && spot >= pHat) || (!trade.isBuy && spot < pHat);\n            if (tradeAligned) {\n                uint256 tradeBoost = wmul(P[9], tradeRatio);\n                if (!firstInStep && tradeBoost > P[12]) tradeBoost = P[12];\n                if (trade.isBuy) { bidFee = bidFee + tradeBoost; }\n                else { askFee = askFee + tradeBoost; }\n            }\n        }\n\n        if (sellPressure) {\n            bidFee = clampFee(_compressTailWithSlope(bidFee, P[10]));\n            askFee = clampFee(_compressTailWithSlope(askFee, P[11]));\n        } else {\n            askFee = clampFee(_compressTailWithSlope(askFee, P[10]));\n            bidFee = clampFee(_compressTailWithSlope(bidFee, P[11]));\n        }\n\n        if (firstInStep) {\n            if (askFee > bidFee && bidFee > P[13]) bidFee = P[13];\n            else if (bidFee > askFee && askFee > P[13]) askFee = P[13];\n        }\n\n        if (bidFee > askFee && askFee > P[14]) askFee = P[14];\n        else if (askFee > bidFee && bidFee > P[14]) bidFee = P[14];\n\n        slots[0] = bidFee; slots[1] = askFee; slots[2] = (spot << 64) | trade.timestamp;\n        slots[3] = dirState; slots[4] = actEma; slots[5] = pHat;\n        slots[6] = sigmaHat; slots[7] = lambdaHat; slots[8] = sizeHat;\n        slots[9] = toxEma; slots[10] = stepTradeCount;\n\n        return (bidFee, askFee);\n    }\n\n    function _compressTailWithSlope(uint256 fee, uint256 slope) internal pure returns (uint256) {\n        if (fee <= TAIL_KNEE) return fee;\n        return TAIL_KNEE + wmul(fee - TAIL_KNEE, slope);\n    }\n\n    function _powWad(uint256 factor, uint256 exp) internal pure returns (uint256 result) {\n        result = WAD;\n        while (exp > 0) {\n            if (exp & 1 == 1) result = wmul(result, factor);\n            factor = wmul(factor, factor);\n            exp >>= 1;\n        }\n    }\n\n    function _decayCentered(uint256 centered, uint256 decayFactor, uint256 elapsed) internal pure returns (uint256) {\n        uint256 mul = _powWad(decayFactor, elapsed);\n        if (centered >= WAD) { return WAD + wmul(centered - WAD, mul); }\n        uint256 below = wmul(WAD - centered, mul);\n        return below < WAD ? WAD - below : 0;\n    }\n\n    // Floor square root: bit-length seed and seven Newton steps (all uint256).\n    function _isqrt(uint256 x) internal pure returns (uint256 r) {\n        if (x == 0) return 0;\n        unchecked {\n            uint256 y = x;\n            r = 1;\n            if (y >> 128 != 0) { y >>= 128; r <<= 64; }\n            if (y >> 64 != 0) { y >>= 64; r <<= 32; }\n            if (y >> 32 != 0) { y >>= 32; r <<= 16; }\n            if (y >> 16 != 0) { y >>= 16; r <<= 8; }\n            if (y >> 8 != 0) { y >>= 8; r <<= 4; }\n            if (y >> 4 != 0) { y >>= 4; r <<= 2; }\n            if (y >> 2 != 0) { r <<= 1; }\n            r = (r + x / r) >> 1;\n            r = (r + x / r) >> 1;\n            r = (r + x / r) >> 1;\n            r = (r + x / r) >> 1;\n            r = (r + x / r) >> 1;\n            r = (r + x / r) >> 1;\n            r = (r + x / r) >> 1;\n            uint256 t = x / r;\n            return r < t ? r : t;\n        }\n    }\n\n    function getName() external pure override returns (string memory) { return \"regime_a\"; }\n}\n","sha256":"10a8c19ce4cc5b3c5f32d701fbdb4f794d35ab212a30918cec72b931ea2e408a","seeds_kind":"tuning","held_out_seeds":[310000,310511],"paired":{"n":512,"mean_diff":-0.5755359342052299,"se":0.04581899892333414,"worst":[{"seed":310360,"diff":-16.679177770917022,"edge":558.0389532169352,"edge_stack":574.7181309878522},{"seed":310244,"diff":-5.643479328818103,"edge":757.7949335372791,"edge_stack":763.4384128660972},{"seed":310154,"diff":-3.946278605872635,"edge":555.6049592850385,"edge_stack":559.5512378909111},{"seed":310438,"diff":-3.6544537177011307,"edge":745.8865445692304,"edge_stack":749.5409982869315},{"seed":310006,"diff":-3.5776521445064873,"edge":667.188499543208,"edge_stack":670.7661516877145}]},"edge_means_held_out":{"candidate":521.9951450641947,"stack":522.5706809983999},"retail_edge_delta":null,"arb_edge_delta":null,"edge_split_note":"The prebuilt amm_sim_rs result only exposes total edge per strategy (no retail/arb split), so the retail and arb edge deltas were not measured and are null. Proxies measured on the held-out 512 seeds, candidate minus STACK (in Y units): arb_volume_y delta 604.7 (se 5.2), retail_volume_y delta 708.8 (se 7.7). So the candidate drew more retail flow and also more arbitrage flow, and lost edge on net.","arb_volume_y_delta":{"mean":604.6656641766716,"se":5.2097525318654165},"retail_volume_y_delta":{"mean":708.7900073218756,"se":7.650333165271051},"gas":{"max_ok":212641,"oog":0,"init":220984,"stack_max_ok_same_seeds":211519,"search_max_ok":214731,"search_oog":0,"limit":250000},"checks":{"ch_seeds_0_999_mean_edge":525.5258821780834,"ch_expected":525.5258821780834,"stack_sha256_verified":"2eaafc7960e520b8a7fd322ec8afaff8fa677c730228a961efb509cc30b25719","identity_check":"generated regime contract with all multipliers 1.0 gave edges identical to STACK on seeds 300000..300063 (max abs diff 0.0)","amm_match_validate":"passed (regime_a)"},"notes":["Result is negative: the REGIME family did not beat STACK. Held-out 310000..310511 paired diff is -0.576 (se 0.046). The best per-generation sample over 97 generations was -0.502 on a 64-seed batch; in the 256-seed re-check the top-3 samples came in at -0.82, -0.78 and -0.63 and the final CMA mean at -0.67, so the best single-batch scores were selection noise.","Regime definition used (the same 4 regimes as the brief, assigned from the current trade, i.e. the print the returned quote is computed after): R1 = first print of a step after silence>1, R2 = first print at silence 1, R3 = second print in a step, R4 = later prints. The quote is then met by the next print, which is either the next same-step retail print or the next step's arbitrage/first print.","Inert parameters: CAP30 applies only on first prints (R1/R2) and CAP16 (the trade-boost cap) only on non-first prints (R3/R4), so 4 of the 60 parameters have no effect.","sigma0=0.12 in 60 log dimensions puts every early sample about 0.9 log-units from STACK; gen-0 median was -7.2. Sigma fell to 0.054 by the 30-minute stop, and the generation median rose to about -1.5 without crossing 0. STACK sits near a sharp optimum in this space; a smaller sigma0 (about 0.02) or fewer active parameters would be needed to test whether any per-regime split gains at all.","Gas: the per-regime table in memory costs about 1.1k gas per afterSwap (STACK 211,519 vs candidate 212,641 max on the held-out seeds); zero OOG anywhere in the search or the checks.","Seeds: tuning used only 300000..309743; re-check used 309744..309999 (256 unseen); the held-out final used 310000..310511, run once. No seed >= 5000000 was used. CH check used 0..999. No seeds were dropped.","Board transfer: not claimed; this is a local tuning-seed estimate only."]}