{"key":"p6-s2-lowp-early-bids","idea":"Port d-s2-lowp-early-bids to MA: halve the new main bid at spread 2 when estimated probability is below 0.05 before step 1000.","spreads":[2],"approach":"Kept MA unchanged and appended a Strategy wrapper. It calls MA first, recomputes MA's completed probability estimate from its retained belief state, and replaces only the newly emitted main BUY action when the source guard holds. The wider variant uses p < 0.075 and step < 1200. Simulations used the pinned simulator serially with default 2000-step configuration.","tried":"Tuned source cutoff (p < 0.05, step < 1000) and wider cutoff (p < 0.075, step < 1200) on 340000..340199. The source cutoff had the higher spread-2 paired mean and was frozen for holdout.","next":"Do not promote: holdout gain is below twice its standard error; retain MA as incumbent and treat this as a small, non-significant spread-2 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SHA-256 and the four required MA check values were verified before tuning. The wrapper and a direct body edit of the same source guard had identical total, retail, and arbitrage edges on all four check seeds. All target-spread decisions use MA state after its callback; non-target actions were exactly equal on every holdout pair. Tuning and holdout were disjoint, and no protected seeds were used. Holdout overall paired gain was 0.0333233 (SE 0.0245532), and spread-2 gain was 0.123420 (SE 0.0908337); neither clears the two-SE promotion rule."}