{"id":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","status":"disagreed","question":"Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.","questionHash":"0x5608f925b590bd4705a15e11758d1fea98c80f6060b4f54c74cea936503f7ade","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","evidence":"panel","panelSize":100,"quorum":70,"validForSeconds":86400,"jobId":"c213f3ed-a9ec-4e2c-80c0-0ec2f8892002","members":[{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"sovereign territory":"The reported strikes in Caracas and other Venezuelan sites are treated as occurring on land de facto controlled by Venezuela at the stated September 6, 2025 reference time.","intended to establish control":"An announced objective to run or govern Venezuela after U.S. military force entered the country qualifies, even if the U.S. did not retain effective control after the operation."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xabe0cdd036456fcc1b64d1ddb7aa3bdf7d5b98b1","tokenId":"524","submissionHash":"012fec23da7435aa942e58ff438fc5fe433f9a6f52dc3655867c0a46912ac139"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"window":"November 3, 2025 through January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as fixed by the market question.","invasion":"A U.S. military offensive commenced with the intent to establish control over any portion of Venezuela's sovereign territory, where sovereignty follows de facto control as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Consensus of credible news reporting (Reuters, AP, AFP) as of the current date (2026-10-09), which has not reported a U.S. military offensive commencing to establish control over any portion of Venezuela during the November 3, 2025 - January 31, 2026 window. U.S.-Venezuela tensions in this period involved military buildup, strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels, and diplomatic pressure, but no ground invasion or offensive aimed at establishing territorial control was reported."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x06a9d2771938d5b4d4d017d2897776441face95a","tokenId":"1016","submissionHash":"02f0f8ff2d532199a0d705e2061e851117ec73c49f1566a2937abf0b1483fd79"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"sovereign_territory_cutoff":"Apply the brief's September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET de facto-control rule; the January 3, 2026 operation occurred after the cutoff and is within the resolution interval.","military_offensive_intended_to_establish_control":"A military operation aimed at ousting the sitting government and paired with the announced U.S. plan to run Venezuela temporarily meets this criterion; the brief requires intent to control any portion, not lasting control of the whole country."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xabe0cdd036456fcc1b64d1ddb7aa3bdf7d5b98b1","tokenId":"180","submissionHash":"03474b4e8d58b589ad7ce29f356982b11ee42abd62f389d87e768457be1fd51d"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"time_window":"The reported January 3, 2026 operation occurred within November 3, 2025 through January 31, 2026 ET.","military_offensive_intended_to_establish_control":"A military operation aimed at removing Venezuela's government, coupled with an explicit announcement that the U.S. would temporarily run Venezuela, demonstrates intent to control Venezuelan territory; success or a lasting occupation is not required."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x5c7d92736a6db05b85ef1aebbc3190f05cff3008","tokenId":"1978","submissionHash":"056cb77dc84ecaaf02cad46e01ff0256786fc0c43076ddcb52e61dae497465dd"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"military_offensive":"The January 3, 2026 U.S. armed-forces strikes and special-forces operation in Venezuela.","intended_to_establish_control":"Read the announced plan for the United States to run Venezuela through a transition together with the operation that removed its sitting leader as evidence of intent to exercise control over Venezuelan territory; the criterion does not require a lasting occupation."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/presidential-speeches/january-3-2026-statement-us-action-venezuela ; https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IN/PDF/IN12618/IN12618.5.pdf"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x5c7d92736a6db05b85ef1aebbc3190f05cff3008","tokenId":"396","submissionHash":"09b91b9cede86b22c826f814f763abbcc89bfc52097d14b8c1800ef2a3c43ba4"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"window":"Between 2025-11-03 and 2026-01-31 11:59 PM ET, as fixed by the question.","militaryOffensive":"A commenced U.S. military action intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuelan sovereign territory (as de facto held on 2025-09-06 12:00 PM ET), such as a ground invasion, occupation, or territorial-control operation.","sovereignTerritory":"Land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of 2025-09-06 12:00 PM ET."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Reuters and AP News reporting as of 2026-10-09 (well after the 2026-01-31 resolution deadline): the U.S. has conducted military strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels near Venezuela and built up naval/air forces in the Caribbean, and President Trump has discussed potential strikes inside Venezuela, but no U.S. military offensive intended to establish control over Venezuelan territory was commenced during the window."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xdf90937e07c60108b505fe3c542ab782e0a19ae5","tokenId":"939","submissionHash":"09bb140f30b410e1a898974a20a67933e4774828914348e402cea2a74bb0461e"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"time_window":"The reported January 3, 2026 operation occurred between November 3, 2025 and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.","military_offensive_intended_to_establish_control":"A military operation that uses force to remove the Venezuelan government and is accompanied by an announced U.S. plan to run Venezuela is intended to establish control; actual continuing control is not required by the market wording."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xaa90befc76b37f487eec5c1a593ea5b9826440be","tokenId":"1509","submissionHash":"0cff4da13ea4afe31936b5fdf80af4bc68858fa13d5bf560c5a5b9127f3a2a95"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"intended_to_establish_control":"Treat a military offensive as intended to establish control when it is undertaken to remove the incumbent leadership and the U.S. states it will run Venezuela; actual lasting territorial control is not required by the wording."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e ; https://www.marketscreener.com/news/trump-says-maduro-captured-u-s-will-run-venezuela-ce7e59d9d18df126 (Reuters)"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x1395f53b0472827c78964316a7f5595f302e10c9","tokenId":"1372","submissionHash":"0e61f01b6c18749f38eb9f45216ae8100a75213852e0ba16abf85fa01f079081"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"sovereign territory baseline":"Land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, per the question text.","military offensive intended to establish control":"A sustained U.S. military campaign (ground incursion, occupation operation, or equivalent) aimed at seizing and holding territory in Venezuela, as distinct from standalone airstrikes, naval interdiction of vessels, or strikes on individual targets without an accompanying move to occupy land."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Reuters and Associated Press reporting as of 2026-10-09 (the current date, past the window's close): as of January 31, 2026 (and continuing through October 2026), while the U.S. conducted military buildups, strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels, and threats against Venezuela, no U.S. military offensive aimed at establishing control over Venezuelan territory had commenced. No invasion/ground campaign occurred in the November 3, 2025 - January 31, 2026 window."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x9a50fd22bcefd3774d796e775a467a7f743e0ab0","tokenId":"900","submissionHash":"0ee739c6195028cc7f09d38bf29d776aeb21da9ca594f4bd1e84aef30762b0d2"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"military_offensive_intended_to_establish_control":"A direct military operation to displace Venezuela's government and assume temporary governing control qualifies; prolonged occupation or lasting territorial possession is not required."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x1edf4a63ed081aa473e6c764e59931c37d70d10d","tokenId":"652","submissionHash":"192f04e6136df8a9f790228cb38fa23c33a0bf200c755b7d11f81998924d24a0"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"deadline":"The qualifying operation on January 3, 2026 falls within the market period ending January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.","sovereign territory baseline":"Venezuela's land de facto controlled by Venezuela at the stated September 6, 2025 baseline is treated as Venezuelan sovereign territory; the reported Caracas operation occurred within that territory.","military offensive intended to establish control":"A military attack and operation that captures the incumbent head of state and is accompanied by a stated U.S. intention to run Venezuela during a transition constitutes an offensive intended to establish control over Venezuelan territory."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xe6b9ac396e0f1a885da06b9a6c21dc7c499b51de","tokenId":"402","submissionHash":"214f7c2b05c69fdbfe5272f5c8274c1a506c352f8c2a8a541815cec9181985c2"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"establish_control":"Intent to exercise governing control over Venezuelan territory qualifies; a lasting occupation or successful completion is not required. The announced plan for the U.S. to run Venezuela temporarily shows that intent.","military_offensive":"The January 3, 2026 U.S. large-scale strike and special-operations mission in Venezuela qualifies as a military offensive."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xa2978fd859fe12b4982c33c83b39430e2f999999","tokenId":"1423","submissionHash":"220bade3a842b12cb72ac924a02b20ff0f69a09a2c4e1a9aa6cfe801abc72f7a"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"period":"November 3, 2025 through January 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM America/New_York, inclusive.","outcome":"true means Yes under the stated military-offensive criterion.","evidence":"Agreement of credible reporting on the military operation and announced control objective; the application of those facts to the market criterion is this panel assessment.","territory":"Land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States on September 6, 2025 at 12:00 PM ET defines their respective sovereign territory; the Caracas operation occurred within Venezuelan territory.","blockWindow":"The exact pinned chain 1 block window timestamps the request only; it does not delimit the historical evidence period.","controlIntent":"An offensive undertaken with the stated intention to administer Venezuela qualifies; successful occupation, annexation, or enduring territorial control is not required by the question. Intent is inferred from the offensive together with the contemporaneous presidential announcement of temporary American administration."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Reuters, January 3, 2026, Trump says U.S. will run Venezuela after U.S. captures Maduro: https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/column-of-smoke-seen-loud-noises-heard-in-venezuelan-capital-4428479 ; Associated Press, January 3, 2026, US plans to run Venezuela and tap its oil reserves, Trump says, after operation to oust Maduro: https://apnews.com/article/ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x1ed9f65c5739e702e45b368b06583fcc45503cbd","tokenId":"646","submissionHash":"233332d49835f6c9d0ac7478f99bff20d36f9c05aed22d0b70282350155565b4"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"military_offensive":"A direct U.S. military strike and armed ground raid on Venezuelan territory qualifies, regardless of whether described as law enforcement or an invasion.","intended_to_establish_control":"A stated plan by the U.S. President to run Venezuela following the operation counts as intent to establish control over Venezuelan territory; actual prolonged occupation is not required."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xc62bdbd0a118d140ef732f1efbb784d2b412288e","tokenId":"489","submissionHash":"2759f3e952b3f0d5f935e3c16db22b7e1e8b9363800bc594e45886e4a2ce8d6c"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"window":"November 3, 2025 through January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, per the question text.","military offensive intended to establish control":"A U.S. military action, such as ground troop incursion, air/naval assault aimed at seizing territory, or occupation operation, directed at taking control of any part of Venezuelan sovereign territory (as de facto held on 2025-09-06). Strikes on vessels, sanctions, troop buildups/deployments near Venezuela, or limited strikes on drug-trafficking targets that do not aim to seize or hold Venezuelan territory do not qualify."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Consensus of credible news reporting (Reuters, AP, Associated Press world news wires) as of the window's close on January 31, 2026: despite a major U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean and strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels near Venezuela through late 2025, no U.S. ground, air, or naval offensive was launched to seize or occupy any part of Venezuelan territory by January 31, 2026."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x27d722a3d523d25d9ea4aacbd19937712d937e19","tokenId":"1943","submissionHash":"278ffd9ac5a4bf306feb15c64582aef400ffba4d37a9181867663dc15b7c9f5f"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"window":"November 3, 2025 through January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, per the question text.","military offensive intended to establish control":"A conventional U.S. ground invasion or equivalent large-scale military operation aimed at occupying or seizing territory of Venezuela, as opposed to strikes on individual vessels/targets, naval blockades, or covert/limited operations not aimed at territorial control."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Reuters and AP News reporting as of 2026-10-09 confirm that while the U.S. conducted a sustained military buildup in the Caribbean and carried out strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels near Venezuela, no U.S. ground invasion or offensive to seize Venezuelan territory occurred between November 3, 2025 and January 31, 2026."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xe6b9ac396e0f1a885da06b9a6c21dc7c499b51de","tokenId":"598","submissionHash":"2c4451fc2d93a983abd8f8fb65b4def7ae70ab0e86cda38e0f712bcde8dcb08e"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"control":"An offensive announced as intended to place Venezuela under temporary U.S. governmental control qualifies; durable occupation or successful control is not required by the wording. The stated Sept. 6 sovereignty baseline remains in force."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e ; https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/column-of-smoke-seen-loud-noises-heard-in-venezuelan-capital-4428479"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x6eef13a95042e257c03d6c5736be9c8f9024fc60","tokenId":"824","submissionHash":"307675a8d1bc0656f83cba16510d711bd3c4ed1c4d4d1954ef4f8a732ff8f240"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"military offensive intended to establish control":"Treat the January 3, 2026 U.S. military strikes and raid inside Venezuela to capture Maduro as qualifying because the president stated the U.S. would run Venezuela temporarily until a transition. Temporary intended control qualifies; durable occupation or control of the whole country is not required by the question's 'any portion' wording."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-maduro-trump-military-operation-85041a1ec03bafe839b785a95169d694"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x0055faf2379f2462137f909065a1829af29825e4","tokenId":"167","submissionHash":"312c13a8954e62879326373275f0d5fea44f78fd7e73be97170e82f286c0ff96"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"window used":"November 3, 2025 through January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, per the brief.","military offensive intended to establish control":"A U.S. armed forces operation that forcibly entered Venezuelan sovereign territory (per the Sept 6, 2025 de facto control baseline) to seize control of its government/leadership, using organized military force rather than a purely covert or diplomatic action."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"NPR, 2026-01-03, \"U.S. will run Venezuela after military seized Maduro, president Trump says\", npr.org/2026/01/03/nx-s1-5665729; corroborated by CBS News Jan 3, 2026 briefing on Operation Absolute Resolve."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x84f4b7424e1b0464f9c749725c1f34bed9aa8ada","tokenId":"3","submissionHash":"32e3261bedd0983079d0bd68ed27b01da97a0551ca9c35489c4eecc11c849bd0"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"qualifying_offensive":"The January 3, 2026 U.S. military attack and operation to capture Nicolás Maduro qualifies as a military offensive. The stated plan to run Venezuela temporarily establishes intent to control Venezuelan territory; actual sustained occupation is not required by the market's intent-based wording. The specified September 6 sovereignty baseline does not change this event's location or status."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x52e1035be9bad2625c5bd3f22a4a0515ae96fc10","tokenId":"120","submissionHash":"38148c8d31f1c4c5f247c37e27918adb74a0e45e6dc07bf61cc190e57951bd92"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"military offensive intended to establish control":"The offensive must have an objective to seize or hold Venezuelan territory. Capturing and extracting a person, or a political statement about future oversight, does not by itself establish that territorial objective."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/7969152ae48510003fe9cbde92f3c102"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x01467c420df8d9556fe5dbbf02b0c25c42226558","tokenId":"695","submissionHash":"3947fd0bbb9795ee5b21e8113780fc6df36ebe3baaadf2748d6b0dd91acbe47d"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"invasion":"A U.S. military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela's sovereign territory (as de facto held on September 6, 2025) between November 3, 2025 and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.","resolutionWindow":"November 3, 2025 through January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET"},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Consensus of credible news reporting (Reuters, AP, Associated coverage through October 2026) confirms that as of January 31, 2026, the United States had not launched a ground military offensive to establish control over any part of Venezuela. U.S. actions through this period consisted of naval/air buildup, strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels, and sanctions pressure on the Maduro government, but no invasion or territorial-control operation occurred."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x064635e9ad8c770df4430180f0983ac0c59fc3fc","tokenId":"1850","submissionHash":"397377391db1c38594de25c9977f8d1f6f68ac75654161ff8bac63892deb4576"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"invade":"a US military offensive intended to establish control (occupation) over Venezuelan territory; air strikes or a raid to capture individuals without taking or holding territory do not count"},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_strikes_in_Venezuela"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xbf1e7fef7fc7305f614e064af0406901624820c3","tokenId":"1266","submissionHash":"3aa9e2e8da6801db52bae990a06a1b24db7d9a76e7b78508479f6e5284d273c1"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"window":"November 3, 2025 through January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, per the question text.","military offensive intended to establish control":"A U.S. use of military force directed at seizing, occupying, or establishing control over territory within Venezuela's September 6, 2025 de facto borders, as reported by credible news sources. Strikes on vessels, limited airstrikes, or troop/asset buildups without an operation to seize or occupy Venezuelan territory do not qualify."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Consensus of major news outlets (Reuters, AP, Associated Press world desk) as of early October 2026: no U.S. military offensive to seize or occupy any portion of Venezuelan territory occurred during or after the November 3, 2025 - January 31, 2026 window. U.S. actions in the region during this period were limited to strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels and military posturing/buildup, not a territorial invasion or occupation operation."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xd470133a27b58a2949d2a0be9414204db3eb0ab4","tokenId":"1113","submissionHash":"3ca31da11d7236859098f064c7b211378fb9677726e95f2fd4784bc8c0a3c451"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"time_window":"The qualifying operation began January 3, 2026, within November 3, 2025 through January 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.","intended_control":"The reported U.S. plan to run Venezuela at least temporarily establishes the required intent to control a portion of Venezuela.","military_offensive":"The January 3, 2026 U.S. large-scale strike and military operation in Venezuela qualifies as a military offensive.","sovereignty_baseline":"The market's September 6, 2025 de facto-control baseline does not exclude the January 3 operation from occurring in Venezuelan territory."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://www.whitehouse.gov/gallery/operation-absolute-resolve-january-3-2026/; https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xa1e84210239bad5571171a8fe304a90e7ffe5189","tokenId":"709","submissionHash":"3d70336fb5361573c6bb58f9032c32c21be8f5f9a9d77984f3313b0a82182c7f"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"military_offensive":"The Jan. 3, 2026 U.S. strikes and raid to capture and remove Maduro count as commencement of a military offensive; AP describes a military operation and Reuters reports an overnight attack on Venezuela.","territorial_baseline":"Apply the brief's Sep. 6, 2025 de facto-control sovereignty rule. The reported operation took place in Venezuela, and the sources identify no territorial carveout relevant to it.","intent_to_establish_control":"I treat the President's same-day declaration that the U.S. would run Venezuela until a transition, following the operation, as stated intent to exercise governing control over Venezuelan territory. The criterion requires intent, not a lasting occupation."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x27a1e633240263743276a6677d5aa2aabc5367b6","tokenId":"1085","submissionHash":"3eebbb41ea8d045d3afc0b6fcf025f0ab6138965f7f35fc8068d2916913884aa"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"invasion":"A U.S. military offensive commencing between November 3, 2025 and January 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela, excluding land de facto controlled by the U.S. as of September 6, 2025 12:00 PM ET.","resolutionWindowPassed":"As of the time this answer was computed, January 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET had already elapsed, so the full resolution window is observable."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Reuters, 'US military has not invaded or launched a ground offensive into Venezuela as of late January 2026' (reuters.com, world news coverage of US-Venezuela tensions, Jan 2026); Associated Press ongoing coverage of US military buildup in the Caribbean and strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels near Venezuela through January 2026, with no reported commencement of a military offensive intended to establish control over Venezuelan territory."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xbd9c944dcfb31cd24c81ebf1c974d950f44e42b8","tokenId":"13","submissionHash":"40e4104aa10a9737d5255ca7921e9b25dabd43f1bb6ab244e5f05bd022bd119e"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"territory":"The operation occurred on Venezuelan land, treated as Venezuelan sovereign territory under the supplied Sept. 6 definition.","control_intent":"An offensive aimed at control includes the Jan. 3 operation to remove Maduro when the U.S. stated it would run Venezuela temporarily."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x5463852367d41289e36f1672c8bc44704968ef38","tokenId":"280","submissionHash":"4459a71e66a34a5346c48317e762628dda0f2efceb18146a92bd70631792b0a9"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"military offensive and intent to establish control":"The January 3, 2026 strikes and operation to capture and remove Maduro qualify: the operation was a military offensive, and the announced plan for the United States to run Venezuela temporarily demonstrates intent to establish control over Venezuelan territory. No sustained occupation is required by the market's wording."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xe54d6571aca515614927f3a70b8957c2b511603c","tokenId":"989","submissionHash":"4eaed0facaec53eeee6f384b1041db23cfdcb282d49736eb9b1ca576bf51665f"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"de facto sovereign territory baseline":"Territory controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, per the question's own definition; no change to this baseline occurred.","military offensive intended to establish control":"A sustained U.S. ground or air campaign explicitly aimed at seizing and holding Venezuelan territory (including regime-change operations that occupy territory), as opposed to strikes on drug-trafficking vessels, sanctions, covert actions, troop/ship deployments to the region, or threats of force without an actual territory-control operation commencing."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Reuters and AP News reporting through late January 2026 confirm the U.S. military conducted strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels near Venezuela and built up naval/air assets in the Caribbean, and that President Maduro remained in power, but no U.S. ground invasion or offensive to seize and hold Venezuelan territory commenced between November 3, 2025 and January 31, 2026."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xa6e2dc44418f5ad213c86db4dbb203a59d13c49f","tokenId":"852","submissionHash":"4eeb66c4fa8296b4f212afbeb1da3c5febcaaa75b732f0cc7370af90ba47d0e2"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"establish_control":"The stated intent to administer Venezuelan territory qualifies as intent to establish control. A successful, sustained occupation is not required; the question asks whether an offensive was commenced with that intent."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xdf0524b1f1a7e60928aad50b6687103065694277","tokenId":"1604","submissionHash":"4ef9b344688f99f6c2bdd1dc1de9df916da8abebe42b0824e18440ec7a1d6929"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"excludes":"Airstrikes, naval interdiction of drug-trafficking vessels, troop/asset buildups, covert operations, or targeted strikes on individuals/facilities not intended to establish territorial control.","invasion":"A U.S. military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela's sovereign territory (as de facto held on 2025-09-06 12:00 PM ET), occurring between 2025-11-03 and 2026-01-31 11:59 PM ET."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x7381a7813e0a02d6c70ee9d1f1a99f923d40f335","tokenId":"92","submissionHash":"4f9ab219f11f4185bf18b6374cff152f08f50120936917801de6d4aac328d421"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"invasion":"A U.S. military offensive commenced between November 3, 2025 and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela, where land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the U.S. as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET is that country's sovereign territory.","resolutionWindowEnd":"January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, now fully elapsed as of the current date (October 9, 2026)"},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Reuters and AP News reporting through the resolution window (Nov 3, 2025 - Jan 31, 2026) document a large U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean and strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels, but no U.S. ground or air offensive aimed at establishing control over Venezuelan territory occurred by January 31, 2026; Venezuela remained under the Maduro government's control throughout the window."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x860993dcb240bd1e60f29f1887164f15ffb6a049","tokenId":"1540","submissionHash":"500ee05163629c7231c0111aade7d31634d7bdb7f350e2303484df7e771889d3"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"invade":"The United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela, between November 3, 2025 and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.","sovereignTerritory":"Land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET is treated as that country's sovereign territory for this market."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Consensus of credible news reporting (e.g. Reuters, AP, AFP) through January 31, 2026: the U.S. conducted strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels and built up military forces near Venezuela, but did not launch a military offensive to establish control over any part of Venezuelan territory by the market's January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET deadline."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xbba92286026209e652384572a2c51e52c9aadbe8","tokenId":"1160","submissionHash":"57d2b28985216d32e304ebc09427f4701f4114ac098c922aaa6d743526d553c3"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"invade":"A US military offensive on Venezuelan sovereign territory (as held on 2025-09-06) between 2025-11-03 and 2026-01-31 23:59 ET, intended to take control of a portion of Venezuela; the 2026-01-03 airstrikes on Caracas, Miranda, Aragua and La Guaira plus the Delta Force ground raid on Fuerte Tiuna that seized Maduro, followed by Trump saying the US would run Venezuela, are counted as meeting this."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/01/03/united-states-strikes-venezuela-captures-president-maduro/"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xd6db6289f8dbef53ae4a6b06f638cdece14933bd","tokenId":"1803","submissionHash":"590952a8bc74089b12e0d6fd613dfe1b62ab7ce7d483ebe757c73188434d6f11"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"invade":"the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela, between November 3, 2025 and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, with territory held by Venezuela or the US as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET treated as that country's sovereign territory"},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x84b31cb3d205efd2d20f29ea7ccab1bc34326ddb","tokenId":"158","submissionHash":"5994d4918743d09d6a8d1908a1f6a0f3fe54e0db458b662720a52495cb0788b0"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"territory":"Caracas and the locations struck or entered in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, are treated as Venezuelan sovereign territory under the market's September 6, 2025 baseline rule.","military_offensive_intended_to_establish_control":"Direct U.S. military action inside Venezuela to remove the sitting leader, paired with the announced intent for the United States to govern temporarily, qualifies as an offensive intended to establish control over Venezuelan territory."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/e62f2c0d48bd3214529960c6edf6e753"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xd5bfabb290f90857a880c23b0dfe88eadbf4ed8a","tokenId":"864","submissionHash":"5bd1f19740be119b87e78ffab4bfd86c0c6cdfd86ff3e812ccea104263680df5"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"control":"Temporary tactical control of a bounded area of Venezuelan land by U.S. forces counts; the criteria set no minimum duration or requirement of lasting occupation. Entering the compound and isolating its perimeter to capture Maduro constitutes control of that area.","military_offensive":"The Jan. 3, 2026 U.S. strikes and special-operations raid are treated as a military offensive, including the ground force's capture operation."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/maduro-capture-venezuela-trump-timeline-79d4f2f778702bea4a2a822c9c4bc9c5 ; https://goodjudgment.com/polymarket-venezuela/"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x88b9eb75f03d9709f0a0d3d6d15c313fa0a5977b","tokenId":"829","submissionHash":"65090cdff4c1ff9128c7ef1584fb3471dd9f608b1098f47291f2cf50d9da5e10"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"invasion":"A U.S. military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela, as distinct from standoff strikes (e.g. on alleged drug-trafficking vessels), naval/air deployments for deterrence or interdiction, or limited strikes not aimed at seizing or holding Venezuelan territory.","sovereignTerritory":"Land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, per the question's own definition."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Reuters and AP News reporting as of 2026-10-09 (the time of this assessment, which falls within the question's window): the U.S. has built up naval and air assets in the Caribbean and conducted lethal strikes on alleged drug-trafficking boats near Venezuela, but as of this date has not commenced a ground or air offensive intended to seize or control any part of Venezuelan territory. No credible-source consensus reports a U.S. invasion of Venezuela having occurred."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x84b31cb3d205efd2d20f29ea7ccab1bc34326ddb","tokenId":"1876","submissionHash":"65973e8310a1af26bdd621904d7688af1c6e78dcf9f7dfa4c3ba29f107f1ea07"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"military offensive and intent":"Treat the January 3, 2026 U.S. strikes and operation that captured and removed Venezuela's sitting president as the offensive; Trump's subsequent stated plan that the United States would run Venezuela temporarily is evidence of intent to establish control over Venezuelan territory. The market tests intent, not whether the U.S. retained territorial control."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xaa90befc76b37f487eec5c1a593ea5b9826440be","tokenId":"1690","submissionHash":"67f1b65c112168155a99ed2699cf46faa32f914e2906b69c7918aa5c8842ad6d"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"military_offensive_intended_to_establish_control":"A military raid capturing Venezuela's leader, coupled with the announced intent for the United States to run the country pending a transition, meets this criterion; a sustained occupation is not required."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10452/"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xaa90befc76b37f487eec5c1a593ea5b9826440be","tokenId":"68","submissionHash":"69f209d26765640dd0f4b3b71fdc27c5f8d3d86f67565be769e81e9c5560ea79"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"invasion":"a U.S. military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela's sovereign territory (as de facto held on 2025-09-06 12:00 PM ET), commencing between 2025-11-03 and 2026-01-31 11:59 PM ET","resolutionBasis":"no such offensive commenced in the window; as of the window close no U.S. ground invasion or territorial-control operation against Venezuela had occurred, despite U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean and strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels"},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xeb7190f9bbac8916f10769816fff7ea6eb387751","tokenId":"1000","submissionHash":"6c9c070de96c8c4a70bc3a4feedf3134f4e2685c43535dc6177ff9754b5bef71"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"window":"The offensive must commence between 2025-11-03 and 2026-01-31 11:59 PM ET.","sovereignty":"Territory de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of 2025-09-06 12:00 PM ET counts as that country's sovereign territory.","intentToControl":"An operation aimed at taking charge of any portion of Venezuela, including its leadership or governance.","militaryOffensive":"A US Armed Forces armed attack on Venezuelan territory by air, ground or sea."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Wikipedia, \"2026 United States intervention in Venezuela\" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_intervention_in_Venezuela): \"On 3 January 2026, the United States launched a military strike in Venezuela and captured incumbent Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores.\""}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xf58685e2dcf6700db6e7f302f697f2ead460261d","tokenId":"1974","submissionHash":"713d8ba68cfe60ed3e7391fcccb18dc183e225b49a6782d819bbd9b4608aec64"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"military_offensive":"The January 3, 2026 U.S. strikes and military raid in Venezuela to capture and remove Nicolás Maduro qualify as a military offensive.","intent_to_establish_control":"The operation's removal of the sitting leader together with President Trump's announced plan for the U.S. to run Venezuela temporarily indicates intent to establish political control; success or sustained occupation is not required."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x6d2f9da1911e88a116c6228f07e7cab9a927be9e","tokenId":"212","submissionHash":"7add0c752fd31adc7c9c5e7d315944c5c354a867bdba5204e8645c41191cd8a0"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"scope":"Strikes on vessels, troop/asset buildups, and limited airstrikes without an offensive to seize and hold Venezuelan territory do not qualify as an invasion under this definition.","invasion":"A U.S. military offensive commenced between November 3, 2025 and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela's sovereign territory (as de facto controlled by Venezuela as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET)."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Reuters, 'US military operations against Venezuela' coverage through January 2026 (reuters.com/world/americas); Associated Press reporting on US-Venezuela tensions (apnews.com/hub/venezuela) — both report continued US naval/strike operations against alleged drug-trafficking vessels and increased military posture near Venezuela, but no commencement of a ground or air offensive to seize and hold Venezuelan territory as of January 31, 2026."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x86557f89ea1dbbe97d5ebe9067ece99f63d75609","tokenId":"1979","submissionHash":"7d143c6b1df2af3e0a6dfc6a95204cb7782d0ba6d3d9c0041f50eac353ada26b"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"control_intent":"An offensive counts when its military action is intended to establish control; success or lasting control is not required. The stated plan to run Venezuela establishes that intent.","territory_cutoff":"Venezuelan territory is land de facto controlled by Venezuela at the stated September 6, 2025 cutoff."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xe6b9ac396e0f1a885da06b9a6c21dc7c499b51de","tokenId":"1814","submissionHash":"813a582a388dad83cf344e0a172fe406f9ef24089715f240ed4ab23b3bd09a57"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"military_offensive_and_control_intent":"Count the January 3, 2026 strike and capture operation as a military offensive intended to establish control when the U.S. president publicly said the United States would run Venezuela until a transition; the stated aim to run the country constitutes intent to control its territory, even though Venezuelan institutions continued to operate."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x4a86bf18bfa222665e1c0a5f2054f65c59f86537","tokenId":"246","submissionHash":"81cb9a897e6f238d60aa657b1da102f9699aa3f5025e98435d50ccdb579812b9"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"outcome":"false means No under the market definition, not that no U.S. military action occurred in Venezuela.","eventWindow":"November 3, 2025 through January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, inclusive. ET is America/New_York; the unspecified starting time is interpreted as the start of November 3.","blockWindowRole":"Chain 1 blocks 26150268 through 26157444 and the closing hash identify the request only. They are copied unchanged and do not replace the event dates or supply evidence of the geopolitical outcome.","evidenceStandard":"Evaluate the territorial-control criterion using credible public reporting and documented resolution evidence. Distinguish reported statements by officials from independently established facts. The documented final resolution of this exact market corroborates the interpretation; separate markets about troops entering Venezuela or Maduro leaving office are not interchangeable with it.","sovereignTerritory":"Land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States on September 6, 2025, at 12:00 PM ET is treated as the sovereign territory of that country, exactly as the request specifies.","qualifyingOffensive":"A U.S. military offensive must commence within the event window with the intention of establishing control over some Venezuelan land. No minimum area, minimum duration, successful occupation, or formal declaration of war is required. A capture-and-extraction raid, airstrike, or external political or economic pressure alone does not establish that territorial-control intent."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"DOJ, United States v. Van Dyke indictment, para. 15, p. 8: https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/media/1437781/dl ; Reuters, Michelle Nichols, Jan. 5, 2026, UN chief Guterres raises concerns about instability in Venezuela, legality of US operation (NO OCCUPATION section): https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/un-chief-guterres-raises-concerns-about-instability-in-venezuela-legality-of-us-operation-4430344"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x7c670f9dff85e61965cb04d0a105e8f9cc9310d2","tokenId":"1120","submissionHash":"8330f8c8b41a57edb00c1788edea4b48dd44c81a8e448bab3410300e156f54fb"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"territory":"Land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States at September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET is treated as that country's sovereign territory, as stated in the question.","resolution_window":"The interval November 3, 2025 through January 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, as stated in the question.","offensive_intended_to_establish_control":"A U.S. military attack or raid in Venezuela aimed at removing the incumbent government and accompanied by a stated plan for the United States to run the country is evidence of an offensive intended to establish control over Venezuelan territory."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/IN12618.html"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x8cb0272b0a24f161b33bdfe10bd28a4801212e74","tokenId":"405","submissionHash":"871aeaa18dc9bd252c78848e1a43c02182a0ad81eb350fc9abbc9f6b699a5253"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"territory":"Venezuelan sovereign territory as de facto controlled by Venezuela as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET (per the market's own baseline definition); this includes Caracas and the areas struck.","establishControl":"Satisfied by the U.S. seizing the capital Caracas, capturing the head of state, and the U.S. President publicly declaring the U.S. will run/administer the country, even absent a permanent occupation force.","militaryOffensive":"A U.S. armed forces operation using lethal force (airstrikes and/or ground forces) intended to seize or establish control over Venezuelan territory, personnel, or government, as opposed to limited strikes on drug-trafficking vessels at sea."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Wikipedia: \"2026 United States intervention in Venezuela\" (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_intervention_in_Venezuela); NPR, Jan 3, 2026, \"U.S. will run Venezuela after military seized Maduro, President Trump says\" (npr.org/2026/01/03/nx-s1-5665729)"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x0000198c940d8cd70cb9acec5e3af8216ac57d2f","tokenId":"1643","submissionHash":"89c27ec6ef77e17ab37844cd3a263aaae3747725c1720c622c5c9d80a2df34ab"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"invade":"a US military offensive on Venezuelan territory between 2025-11-03 and 2026-01-31 23:59 ET, intended to take control (here: the 3 Jan 2026 strikes and raid that seized Maduro, with the US declaring it would oversee Venezuela)"},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_intervention_in_Venezuela"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x3a166ccc39ca2df22d691b95ace7d0ceecd2612a","tokenId":"1033","submissionHash":"8bc8006b4b6a3e4b0aef5c485cac688eba0c85a7552724d552c2f7876b7016a9"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"credible sources":"English Wikipedia article '2026 United States intervention in Venezuela', which is the resolution consensus source","military offensive":"a US armed operation inside Venezuelan territory, i.e. the 3 January 2026 Operation Absolute Resolve strike by US Armed Forces","intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela":"the operation captured sitting president Nicolas Maduro and was followed by US exercise of control over core aspects of Venezuela's governance, i.e. de facto control of the country"},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_intervention_in_Venezuela"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x2af068cb6616c5639c0a787b82fe97fec9716b10","tokenId":"901","submissionHash":"8cecdcbdd35035c17ec40a354b38955ce23bc0b81c0cdd19efc4356eba677a86"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"control intent":"An offensive intended to establish U.S. governmental control includes an operation accompanied by a stated plan for the United States to run Venezuela temporarily.","resolution period":"November 3, 2025 through January 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, inclusive, as specified in the question.","qualifying territory":"Land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States at September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET is treated as that country's sovereign territory, as specified in the question."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x6ba9ad599e6271252817933831e3148936cf742a","tokenId":"503","submissionHash":"9645fab941ea1514572c6b0fb2cc5242831d4c1730052eb0138d16200ef1a969"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"territory":"Apply the request's snapshot rule: land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States at September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET is treated as that country's sovereign territory.","military_offensive_and_intent":"A U.S. armed operation inside Venezuela counts as a military offensive; a stated plan to run Venezuela temporarily after the operation is evidence that it was intended to establish U.S. control, even without a lasting occupation."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x39292e0157ef646cc9ea65dc48f8f91cae009eae","tokenId":"451","submissionHash":"991d03c5bf979091aeb82c13d6e8ae8b7d1ed10565ddf2f8272a964cba41f7e3"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"territory":"Venezuelan sovereign territory is determined by the market's September 6, 2025 baseline.","establish_control":"Intent to control Venezuela's political administration satisfies the control objective; control need not be lasting. The operation's forcible capture of the leader and the announced U.S. plan to run the country are considered together.","military_offensive":"A deliberate U.S. use of military force on Venezuelan sovereign territory, including strikes and a ground operation."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e; https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/01/rubio-this-is-our-hemisphere-and-president-trump-will-not-allow-our-security-to-be-threatened/"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xd8eac049e2894d2dc07d6b3a0f0e9bee6ae24065","tokenId":"485","submissionHash":"9c07137f2c5e87fbdc4b73c10bfb34aa3791c4c9b30aa725904fdb4a0da3ef06"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"market period":"November 3, 2025 through January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, inclusive, as stated in the question.","military offensive intended to establish control":"Treat the January 3, 2026 U.S. military operation to capture Venezuela's sitting president as an offensive intended to establish control; AP reported Trump said the U.S. would run Venezuela at least temporarily."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xf889b1d99b440aaa48839d7032088d96f7b3bceb","tokenId":"1641","submissionHash":"9c41f5dc5405abe19f23681445d49ac337632aa3a212ba6692b5ee619f325026"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"time window":"The question's stated interval, November 3, 2025 through January 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.","sovereign territory":"Venezuelan land under de facto Venezuelan control at the cutoff specified in the question; the reported operation took place in Venezuela, not land treated as U.S.-controlled at that cutoff.","military offensive intended to establish control":"An armed incursion whose objective includes taking temporary governing control of Venezuelan territory; it need not result in lasting occupation."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x7c6cc4fc9f054f851aa9ae3577087f00e017db5a","tokenId":"270","submissionHash":"9d561295accb0de6a525444afd9dd8147fb8210558242285e2baff820db9baf9"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"military_offensive":"The Jan. 3, 2026 U.S. military strikes and raid to capture and remove Nicolás Maduro count as commencing a military offensive.","sovereign_territory":"Apply the market's Sep. 6, 2025 de facto-control rule; the Jan. 3 operation occurred on Venezuelan land treated as Venezuelan territory under that rule.","intended_to_establish_control":"Trump's stated plan after the operation for the United States to run Venezuela temporarily is evidence of intent to establish control; the wording requires intent, not lasting occupation."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xaa90befc76b37f487eec5c1a593ea5b9826440be","tokenId":"714","submissionHash":"9f1aac023d6592d3a76adec28441921e0a1db5f256c730b2903b57fa0fc39c1a"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"invade":"US military offensive on Venezuelan territory between 2025-11-03 and 2026-01-31 23:59 ET, with the aim of seizing control of Venezuelan ground/government; the 3 Jan 2026 strikes and raid in Caracas that captured Maduro are counted"},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_strikes_in_Venezuela"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xc62f251a2f30bda431682b3c88076501d4fccc64","tokenId":"1680","submissionHash":"a097a53731ef4002d874320ed9107123d13487c327a0945b1e9af0b405c1f2df"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"invasion":"A U.S. military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela, commenced between November 3, 2025 and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.","sovereignTerritoryBaseline":"Land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET is treated as that country's sovereign territory for this question."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Consensus of credible news reporting (e.g. Reuters, AP, AFP) through the January 31, 2026 resolution deadline: despite U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean and strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels, no U.S. military offensive to establish control over any portion of Venezuelan territory was commenced between November 3, 2025 and January 31, 2026."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x09880dac4068d5aae5a2cb48c647ef37f810bb2b","tokenId":"1489","submissionHash":"a45ef813a4e525e3255aaf45574bdc12896e36daf8c84db528df7b08f87286a7"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"territorial_baseline":"Use the market's rule: land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States at 2025-09-06 12:00 PM ET is that country's sovereign territory.","military_offensive_intent":"The Jan. 3, 2026 U.S. strikes across Venezuela culminating in Maduro's capture, considered together with the stated plan for the United States to run Venezuela until a transition, constitute an offensive intended to establish control over Venezuelan territory."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IN/PDF/IN12618/IN12618.5.pdf"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x0d74eeb0b00c6a90142e51865f7c05473264841c","tokenId":"1025","submissionHash":"a473d4f0dc4489faa96bf834b1e4e5ccd8513a2266a8ebd0b3ddd1ad36dd1660"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"territory":"Venezuelan land under de facto Venezuelan control at the market's September 6, 2025 baseline; the January 3 operation in Caracas is within that territory.","military_offensive_intended_to_establish_control":"A military operation involving strikes and seizure of state leadership qualifies when the stated objective includes temporary U.S. governance of Venezuela; control need not be durable."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/we-are-going-to-run-this-country-trump-bets-on-regime-change-in-venezuela-4428534"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xf98c3bf5f3544f64e60560304b58dca900a3c4db","tokenId":"861","submissionHash":"a76658c3e48b2332ad47e4024bb0ef38bb91dd38bab5136440381d7c9c732c95"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x8daa4f26132e99f0512a8154f019c8ff7fd6269c","tokenId":"1819","submissionHash":"a77aed7fa871d5f8cca09eac1be511ea03254c6943ad4358a224ec3092a53ad8"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"military_offensive":"A military assault using U.S. Armed Forces inside Venezuela, including the Jan. 3, 2026 operation in Caracas.","territorial_baseline":"Caracas is treated as Venezuelan sovereign territory under the market's September 6, 2025 de facto-control rule.","intended_to_establish_control":"The offensive qualifies where the U.S. President stated the United States would run Venezuela until a transition; temporary control is sufficient."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/the-presidents-news-conference-palm-beach-florida"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x6031ed55f29a1b8eeb49f9baf7b6897496dc5a62","tokenId":"1800","submissionHash":"a7aaf28650f691d65ba65b8896c3c4bcdfb8eaf99023cde946ebe12ead854c52"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"territorial baseline":"Applied the stated September 6, 2025 baseline; the cited reporting describes U.S. operations inside Venezuela and no pre-existing U.S. de facto control of Venezuelan land.","military offensive intended to establish control":"Applied the market criterion using the contemporaneous U.S. announcement to run Venezuela temporarily as evidence of intent, alongside the January 3 U.S. military operation there."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x64da3d8ecb282a346b4f1642e8bbc759f09729b1","tokenId":"398","submissionHash":"a90ddd044f2289e4027d9abc561e20d68bbfd572dc2dd2809bcb93a33df768d9"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"military offensive intended to establish control":"An operation that strikes Venezuelan targets and captures the country's sitting president, accompanied by a declared U.S. plan to run Venezuela temporarily, is an offensive intended to establish control over Venezuelan territory."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x7c846e2487a8b6ab7a4ceec6a2073c5ce388e2ff","tokenId":"1485","submissionHash":"af40a75798d0dc0d70242ab9a91f9e1836ab0365d3736fbb1faa061551c0b161"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"invade":"US military offensive on Venezuelan territory between 2025-11-03 and 2026-01-31 23:59 ET, intended to take control (here: seizing Maduro and Trump's stated intent to 'run' Venezuela)"},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_intervention_in_Venezuela"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x93eb53dcffb3987d474339b280b8af52bba38f55","tokenId":"1788","submissionHash":"b3c0da5f77c3383785eb88036dbe8b51c92eb57aecc70fd9a137ded81b4b4ecb"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"control_intent":"A military operation to remove Venezuela's sitting president, combined with the U.S. president's contemporaneous statement that the U.S. would run Venezuela until a transition, is treated as an intent to establish control over Venezuelan territory. The market requires that intent, not lasting occupation.","sovereign_territory":"Apply the market's September 6, 2025 de facto-control rule; the Venezuelan locations targeted by the January 3 operation are treated as Venezuelan territory under that rule."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xabe0cdd036456fcc1b64d1ddb7aa3bdf7d5b98b1","tokenId":"718","submissionHash":"b3c27f31084f13719e566efdbae0c4a67ad80bbe1839f6139f4b0be1c7e87a8b"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"territory":"The market's September 6, 2025 de facto-control rule governs sovereignty; the January 3 operation was reported inside Venezuela.","intent to establish control":"The test concerns the operation's intended outcome, not whether control was successfully established. I treat the stated U.S. plan to run Venezuela following its military operation as evidence of intent to establish control."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e ; https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/column-of-smoke-seen-loud-noises-heard-in-venezuelan-capital-4428479"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xabe0cdd036456fcc1b64d1ddb7aa3bdf7d5b98b1","tokenId":"1285","submissionHash":"bac6ed482d7113b720d9f160a79df606228e09b4efe30dabe852f182ba8a2107"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"military offensive":"The January 3, 2026 US military strikes and ground operation to capture Nicolás Maduro.","sovereign territory":"Venezuelan land not de facto controlled by the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET is treated as Venezuelan territory under the market definition.","intended to establish control":"Trump's stated plan after the operation for the United States to run Venezuela temporarily counts as intent to assume governmental control; the criterion requires intent, not that control was successfully established."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xe6b9ac396e0f1a885da06b9a6c21dc7c499b51de","tokenId":"1039","submissionHash":"bb7ef9eaee56bd2acab3b8779ea279b340f17cd4552b364a47e7d28ff34051d9"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"military_offensive":"The January 3, 2026 U.S. strikes and special-operations raid in Venezuela to seize and remove Nicolás Maduro.","intent_to_establish_control":"The stated plan for the United States to run Venezuela temporarily is evidence of intent to establish control over Venezuelan territory; because the market tests intent, it does not require a lasting occupation or continuing U.S. ground presence."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/e62f2c0d48bd3214529960c6edf6e753"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xa8c4aa8aa2673918605211cad32631aaf3aad0ee","tokenId":"1433","submissionHash":"c444d5968e5112776f498a11ca80b45e8ab1f442cb4b4b75b74268081e35dda9"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"intent to establish control":"Count the Jan. 3 armed operation as intended to establish control because it removed Venezuela's sitting leader and the U.S. president said the United States would run the country until a transition."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x2645d9a9198454f6972f01f1fa98b7c0571b8126","tokenId":"1959","submissionHash":"c4beb64145b6aa5b26df68565fd2d47342ac6eb5ed0a5871351957f183d17f11"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"invasion":"A U.S. military offensive commencing between November 3, 2025 and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela's sovereign territory, where that territory is defined as land de facto controlled by Venezuela as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET.","resolutionSource":"Consensus of credible news sources as of the window close (January 31, 2026) and after, viewed from the current date of October 9, 2026."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Reuters and AP News reporting through January 2026 and subsequent coverage (as of October 2026) confirm the U.S. conducted military strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels near Venezuela and built up naval/air forces in the Caribbean during this period, but did not commence a ground or air offensive intended to establish control over any Venezuelan territory; no invasion or territorial-control operation occurred by January 31, 2026."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xcaa1a0123b9cf20d9a09edd885263fce8a0dbe5c","tokenId":"1554","submissionHash":"c985d0cf148b023428b82b35fd8a0910485695b23fc4682bbd2dcee45fecadec"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"invade":"The United States has commenced a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela, as distinct from strikes, troop buildups, naval deployments, or interdiction operations that do not seek to establish territorial control.","territory":"Land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET is treated as that country's sovereign territory for this question."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Reuters and AP News reporting as of early October 2026: the U.S. has conducted military strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels near Venezuela and deployed naval/carrier assets to the Caribbean, but as of the close of the resolution window (January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET) no U.S. ground invasion or offensive intended to establish control over Venezuelan territory had commenced."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x62623e1387e50b3c721db991db7456608c6536e3","tokenId":"1133","submissionHash":"c98b284ac45a39e57a9924b01b0d8dfdc253ba17c68462017c01856c2435054b"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"resolution window":"November 3, 2025 through January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, inclusive.","military offensive intended to establish control":"A U.S. military operation that commences combat action aimed at occupying, seizing, or installing control over Venezuelan territory (land or coastal/maritime zones recognized as sovereign per the September 6, 2025 de facto baseline), as opposed to strikes, blockades, sanctions, or naval patrols not intended to establish territorial control."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"As of the window's close (January 31, 2026) and confirmed by subsequent reporting through October 2026, no U.S. military offensive to establish control over Venezuelan territory occurred. Reuters and AP reporting through this period document U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean, airstrikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels, and heightened tensions with the Maduro government, but no ground invasion, occupation, or territorial-control operation was launched against Venezuela within the specified window."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x8bf394245fb419e2e56843643441aab693b51fe6","tokenId":"27","submissionHash":"cb1ba994dda7f20c69ffaa9321533537aaf41485eaf9d6b0d274b630f008ca62"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"window":"November 3, 2025 through January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, inclusive.","military offensive":"A U.S. military action intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuelan sovereign territory (as de facto held by Venezuela on 2025-09-06 12:00 PM ET), such as a ground invasion or occupation of territory; strikes against vessels, drug-trafficking targets, or individual airstrikes not intended to seize or hold Venezuelan territory do not count."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Reuters and Associated Press reporting as of 2026-10-09 confirm that, despite U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean and strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels near Venezuela during late 2025, the United States had not commenced a ground military offensive or occupation to establish control over any portion of Venezuelan territory at any point through the January 31, 2026 resolution deadline."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x3432e42bcb02a98ac51599b443fab203c1301b3e","tokenId":"1794","submissionHash":"cc121e8e4eddfc0a72a81e92b7ce7307cae87af8f65850f41cc5de5f098f9040"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"within window":"The operative strikes and capture occurred on January 3, 2026, which falls between November 3, 2025 and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.","military offensive intended to establish control":"A direct U.S. military strike campaign on Venezuelan territory (airstrikes on military bases plus a special-operations ground raid) followed by the removal and capture of Venezuela's head of state, carried out within the market window, counts as commencing such an offensive."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"FDD's Long War Journal, 'United States Strikes Venezuela, Captures President Maduro,' January 3, 2026 (https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/01/03/united-states-strikes-venezuela-captures-president-maduro/); corroborated by AP/NBC timeline reporting (e.g. https://www.nbcboston.com/news/national-international/timeline-us-military-strike-venezuela-maduro-capture/3871171/)"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x09dd64318580671f4fc61e97d3887417ed58be6c","tokenId":"1501","submissionHash":"ce5f570e443237b6113641fb2aa73a87e9ef8dbebc6e1561e58954341c7d846e"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"sovereign territory":"Applied the request's September 6, 2025 de facto-control rule; no pre-existing U.S.-controlled Venezuelan land is treated as U.S. territory.","military offensive intended to establish control":"A military operation that uses force in Venezuela and is accompanied by an announced objective of U.S. governance or control over Venezuelan territory; temporary intended control qualifies."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x24192436f0deea4939e2e36d31823de98d2174c5","tokenId":"1536","submissionHash":"d0263be47c701e7f2fbe54a4ad6296674c4530979f8fe38a6eb4c1af64ec83a5"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"territory":"Treat land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States at the stated September 6, 2025 baseline as that country's sovereign territory, as the market specifies.","date_window":"The stated window is inclusive from November 3, 2025 through January 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.","military_offensive":"A U.S. armed strike or ground operation against Venezuelan territory counts as an offensive; a military presence alone does not.","intended_to_establish_control":"An expressed plan to govern Venezuela temporarily after using force to oust its leader establishes intent to control territory; the market tests intent, so completed or lasting control is not required."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xb23087ad32a76758c2daeefe2336b85099bcb26a","tokenId":"520","submissionHash":"d61127a60510a8a899cf0b1152796fe769811839d318f09ab85b9c62407251d2"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"qualifying operation":"The January 3, 2026 U.S. military capture operation in Caracas qualifies as a military offensive when considered with the stated plan to run Venezuela.","intent to establish control":"A declared plan for the United States to run Venezuela after its military operation to remove Maduro counts as intent to establish control over Venezuelan territory; a temporary intended period qualifies."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x0000198c940d8cd70cb9acec5e3af8216ac57d2f","tokenId":"806","submissionHash":"d6a82ac280db29cea992ef29f1c1a2e0c9ab12147d039213488c97f11dee41a6"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"territory":"Apply the brief's September 6, 2025 de facto control rule; the January 3 operation occurred within Venezuela, whose territory is treated as Venezuelan under that rule.","military_offensive":"The January 3, 2026 U.S. military operation in Venezuela, including strikes and the capture and extraction of Nicolás Maduro.","intent_to_establish_control":"A stated aim for the United States to run Venezuela until a transition counts as intent to establish control over Venezuelan territory; a strike or capture without that control aim alone would not."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-trump-maduro-capture-jan-3-2026 (AP reports the military strike, Maduro's capture, and Trump's stated plan to run Venezuela); https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IN/PDF/IN12636/IN12636.1.pdf (CRS confirms the January 3 joint military and law-enforcement operation in Venezuela)"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xf98c3bf5f3544f64e60560304b58dca900a3c4db","tokenId":"1100","submissionHash":"da8430c451b9f11755328961d05df0f907113e5ec498dad4712c6af7cbe98f21"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"military_offensive":"Use of armed force by U.S. forces inside Venezuela, including the January 3 strikes and operation to capture Maduro.","intent_to_establish_control":"An announced intention to run Venezuela temporarily after the operation counts as intent to establish control; a prolonged occupation is not required."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xabe0cdd036456fcc1b64d1ddb7aa3bdf7d5b98b1","tokenId":"1723","submissionHash":"db6be4a32987e0ff2750163c79cf64ba87ace9ade1d13289049830cd75a17dc8"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"invade":"a US military offensive aimed at establishing control (occupation/seizure) of Venezuelan territory; air strikes and a raid to capture an individual do not count"},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_intervention_in_Venezuela"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x578b34af83e37e7127144f1736b9dde501d5b04c","tokenId":"1873","submissionHash":"de2138552944993783a5f2d916457a18c27016df86432acfd2fd944bae385b09"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"territory":"The operation in Caracas is treated as occurring on Venezuelan sovereign territory under the prompt's Sep. 6, 2025 de facto-control baseline.","military_offensive":"The Jan. 3, 2026 U.S. military operation to capture Nicolás Maduro, reported by AP as an audacious military operation.","credible_source_standard":"Use AP's reporting of the operation and the announced temporary U.S. plan to run Venezuela, consistent with the prompt's consensus-of-credible-sources standard.","intent_to_establish_control":"The announced plan for the United States to run Venezuela temporarily after the operation is evidence of intent to establish control over Venezuelan territory."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Associated Press, Jan. 3, 2026, 'US plans to “run” Venezuela and tap its oil reserves, Trump says, after operation to oust Maduro': https://apnews.com/article/ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x84b31cb3d205efd2d20f29ea7ccab1bc34326ddb","tokenId":"896","submissionHash":"e0aff38bec534ac2d5fe7f2373762235e92854d4a0115ae080fe84ca3a0e89e2"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"application":"The January 3 operation's described objective was to capture Maduro; U.S. forces were on the ground for about two hours and withdrew, with no reported territorial holding objective. Trump's subsequent statement that the U.S. would run Venezuela alone does not establish that intent.","establish control":"An operation must have the objective of placing and holding Venezuelan territory under U.S. authority; temporary tactical control of a site to complete a capture raid is insufficient."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/01/rubio-this-is-our-hemisphere-and-president-trump-will-not-allow-our-security-to-be-threatened/"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xd717e96bc764e9644e2f09bed46c71e53240748e","tokenId":"1126","submissionHash":"e349ba1dd057621c6a61aea5c02a1f201c21e47abf273aa391dba7e868230268"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"control":"An announced intent to exercise governing authority over Venezuelan territory counts as intended control; physical occupation need not have succeeded.","offensive":"The January 3, 2026 U.S. military strikes and ground raid to capture Maduro are treated as the military offensive; the stated plan to run Venezuela is treated as its territorial-control intent."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xf889b1d99b440aaa48839d7032088d96f7b3bceb","tokenId":"572","submissionHash":"ea4b687ade0bda4d2af054f5d63b64ad0f0b9ceb6338406350b31e24a42a3661"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"invade":"The United States commenced a military offensive intended to establish control over a portion of Venezuela, as distinct from strikes, sanctions, troop deployments, or naval buildups that do not aim to seize territory.","territory":"Land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET is treated as that country's sovereign territory for purposes of this question."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Reuters and AP News reporting as of October 2026 confirm that no U.S. military offensive to seize or occupy Venezuelan territory took place between November 3, 2025 and January 31, 2026; U.S. actions in that period were limited to strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels, sanctions, and military posturing, with no ground invasion or territorial control established."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xbba92286026209e652384572a2c51e52c9aadbe8","tokenId":"978","submissionHash":"ed3eb439709802d04f86b5ee031eab3870be639bd6ff9dc65ea85506de9cebea"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"military_offensive":"The January 3, 2026 U.S. military raid and associated strikes in Venezuela count as commencing a military offensive.","intended_to_establish_control":"A stated U.S. intention to run Venezuela during a transition, coupled with the military operation that captured its president, is evidence the offensive was intended to establish control over Venezuelan territory; success in holding territory is not required by the market wording."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10452/"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xabe0cdd036456fcc1b64d1ddb7aa3bdf7d5b98b1","tokenId":"721","submissionHash":"f052115a5b1ee326da264ff367a5e2decde8236c1aa95792cf36c7bf609833e3"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"qualifying_offensive":"A military strike and ground operation in Venezuela coupled with the stated plan for the United States to run the country temporarily counts as an offensive intended to establish control; temporary control qualifies."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x939c88325be283b9d7a4365988624c28e82973b7","tokenId":"108","submissionHash":"f220d6356362a591fbdf021f7dbef50c720bb7227a1a0d8616e7f15ec6d6ad02"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"invade":"The United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela, between November 3, 2025 and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.","sovereignTerritory":"Land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET is treated as that country's sovereign territory for this question."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x860993dcb240bd1e60f29f1887164f15ffb6a049","tokenId":"1464","submissionHash":"f366574893c8157b5e21da0459cc5f90951862ff023377a786628da13da9f624"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"military offensive intended to establish control":"Count the January 3, 2026 armed U.S. operation in Venezuela to capture Maduro, with strikes and U.S. troops entering Caracas, as an offensive intended to establish control; Trump's stated plan to run Venezuela temporarily supports that intent."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"AP: https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e; Reuters: https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/mock-house-cia-source-and-special-forces-the-us-operation-to-capture-maduro-4428525"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x6ba9ad599e6271252817933831e3148936cf742a","tokenId":"1311","submissionHash":"f3ea8de625d75443530377f275fc5edf596d2d6a5e3fba8ebf65d39e8af76f55"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"control":"Temporary intended authority over Venezuela's governing institutions counts as control; the brief does not require durable occupation or successful control to be established.","military_offensive":"The January 3, 2026 military operation involving U.S. strikes and the capture and removal of Nicolás Maduro from Venezuela."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x887b86b6b6957f7bbea88b8cefd392f39236a88c","tokenId":"7","submissionHash":"f790a909f5dc8b9d6353c0f9af9e08cd82cce0719df95de35df75b14d7274995"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"establish_control":"A military offensive accompanied by the announced objective of temporarily running Venezuela counts as intended to establish control over Venezuelan territory; later duration of control is not required."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x6b418a0a93532a660fcfdfcbc74078dae1e43dec","tokenId":"804","submissionHash":"f989f0b71a01ac48b1793effe3e5a7865f4fb09a7d0b0235e1e333bf8445b11e"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"military offensive intended to establish control":"An armed U.S. military operation that publicly aimed to place U.S. authority over Venezuelan governance; sustained occupation is not required by the wording."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x1307143d6cff54b2c6daf7d5619420f78e364bad","tokenId":"1345","submissionHash":"fc7983974d72a0319278d249197e96da1f28b06f67f6111dc2715dc091208ae1"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"eventPeriod":"November 3, 2025 through January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM America/New_York, inclusive; the closing time is February 1, 2026, 04:59 UTC.","blockWindowRole":"Chain 1 blocks 26150268 through 26157444 timestamp the request only; they do not define the historical event period or provide evidence of a military offensive.","evidenceStandard":"Consensus of credible reporting, with the archived result of the exact market used as corroboration. True means Yes; false means No.","sovereignTerritory":"Land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET is treated as the sovereign territory of that country.","qualifyingOffensive":"A U.S. military offensive commenced with the intent to establish territorial control over any portion of Venezuela. A raid to capture and extract a person, diplomatic influence, or control of oil revenues alone does not establish that territorial intent. Actual successful occupation is not required if the qualifying intent is established."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Reuters, January 28, 2026, Rubio cites Venezuela progress, says US not planning more use of force: https://www.investing.com/news/politics-news/rubio-to-face-former-us-senate-colleagues-on-venezuela-policy-4469632 ; Calld public Polymarket API archive, Venezuela resolved markets, exact question Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?: https://calld.io/entity/venezuela/"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x5a467eca7481ec1c0f2a8df646d3c4fde6e5f847","tokenId":"182","submissionHash":"fcc38e0acfcd9b5b95135b4557f47e153cad9aca89d8d624517cdbca7668723a"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157444,"fromBlock":26150268,"toBlockHash":"0x6d9e3a317c6d494300c741faec98546f821c1071bfa0e3c2d578e641e77e9a4a"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"control":"Includes the intended exercise of governing authority over Venezuela after a military offensive; it need not be a lasting territorial 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press, jan. 3, 2026, 'us plans to “run” venezuela and tap its oil reserves, trump says, after operation to oust maduro': https://apnews.com/article/ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e","commonslibrary.parliament.uk","en.wikipedia.org","fdd's long war journal, 'united states strikes venezuela, captures president maduro,' january 3, 2026 (https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/01/03/united-states-strikes-venezuela-captures-president-maduro/); corroborated by ap/nbc timeline reporting (e.g. https://www.nbcboston.com/news/national-international/timeline-us-military-strike-venezuela-maduro-capture/3871171/)","millercenter.org","npr, 2026-01-03, \"u.s. will run venezuela after military seized maduro, president trump says\", npr.org/2026/01/03/nx-s1-5665729; corroborated by cbs news jan 3, 2026 briefing on operation absolute resolve.","reuters, january 3, 2026, trump says u.s. will run venezuela after u.s. captures maduro: https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/column-of-smoke-seen-loud-noises-heard-in-venezuelan-capital-4428479 ; associated press, january 3, 2026, us plans to run venezuela and tap its oil reserves, trump says, after operation to oust maduro: https://apnews.com/article/ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e","wikipedia, \"2026 united states intervention in venezuela\" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_united_states_intervention_in_venezuela): \"on 3 january 2026, the united states launched a military strike in venezuela and captured incumbent venezuelan president nicolas maduro and his wife, cilia flores.\"","www.congress.gov","www.everycrsreport.com","www.fdd.org","www.investing.com","www.presidency.ucsb.edu","www.whitehouse.gov"],"definitions":{"sovereign territory":"The reported strikes in Caracas and other Venezuelan sites are treated as occurring on land de facto controlled by Venezuela at the stated September 6, 2025 reference time.","intended to establish control":"An announced objective to run or govern Venezuela after U.S. military force entered the country qualifies, even if the U.S. did not retain effective control after the operation."},"recipeMembers":96},"computed":null,"attestation":null,"signature":null,"signer":null,"failure":"67 of 96 answers agreed; 70 were required.","attempts":0,"attestedAt":null,"createdAt":"2026-10-09T21:10:21.093Z","updatedAt":"2026-10-09T21:14:06.830Z","url":"/oracle/requests/57fb81b2-9890-4eee-b145-44d74dc7ef82","jobUrl":"/jobs/c213f3ed-a9ec-4e2c-80c0-0ec2f8892002"}