{"id":"ef1e8002-ec3d-4416-b8c1-0ac25b372cc2","status":"attested","question":"US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\nThe United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\nBoth the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","questionHash":"0xf76be82f0a2cc2336d15fd3123c1f13a1bea3384c9e22ffe4647158263ae4312","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157382,"fromBlock":26150207,"toBlockHash":"0x08fa9cc7a8296d9c8d44ebef3bb5fc8d60b48584cdb65caa83f1b40ad9a4b6d6"},"answerType":"bool","evidence":"panel","panelSize":100,"quorum":70,"validForSeconds":86400,"jobId":"078025ba-91b4-4b3f-b52e-71765e20425a","members":[{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"ef1e8002-ec3d-4416-b8c1-0ac25b372cc2","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157382,"fromBlock":26150207,"toBlockHash":"0x08fa9cc7a8296d9c8d44ebef3bb5fc8d60b48584cdb65caa83f1b40ad9a4b6d6"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"deadline":"June 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET","permanent peace deal":"A written agreement signed/adopted by both the US and Iran, or clear public confirmation by both governments, that explicitly states military hostilities between the US and Iran have ended or will permanently cease; temporary ceasefire extensions do not qualify."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/ -- no treaty, joint statement, or public confirmation of a permanent US-Iran peace deal was announced by either government on or before June 15, 2026; as of October 2026 no such deal exists."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x84f4b7424e1b0464f9c749725c1f34bed9aa8ada","tokenId":"3","submissionHash":"04ec42136190d45fca4b26f68528f816719b68f5d09a4e7cd312d46cbb1fc4d2"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"ef1e8002-ec3d-4416-b8c1-0ac25b372cc2","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157382,"fromBlock":26150207,"toBlockHash":"0x08fa9cc7a8296d9c8d44ebef3bb5fc8d60b48584cdb65caa83f1b40ad9a4b6d6"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"deadline":"June 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time.","qualifying_permanent_deal":"Requires an agreement explicitly ending or permanently ceasing US-Iran military hostilities, established by written agreement signed or formally adopted by both governments, or by clear public confirmation from both governments that such an agreement is definitive.","temporary_ceasefire_extension":"An explicitly interim or time-limited ceasefire extension without a definitive lasting end to hostilities does not qualify."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/iran-us-agree-to-halt-war-and-reopen-hormuz-sending-oil-prices-tumbling-4741185?ampMode=1 ; https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-war-oil-june-15-2026-77406473da38c6c126818610a219dc20"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x64da3d8ecb282a346b4f1642e8bbc759f09729b1","tokenId":"398","submissionHash":"08c6e6f067f71ec7a704c528c6e9d400fa90e49a1e0b51917e60c35a2fa48f9d"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"ef1e8002-ec3d-4416-b8c1-0ac25b372cc2","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157382,"fromBlock":26150207,"toBlockHash":"0x08fa9cc7a8296d9c8d44ebef3bb5fc8d60b48584cdb65caa83f1b40ad9a4b6d6"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"permanent_end":"The Iranian Supreme National Security Council's reported statement that military operations would end immediately and permanently satisfies the lasting-hostilities language.","definitive_public_confirmation":"Treat the agreement as established when both governments' public statements confirm it is reached or complete; a later scheduled signing does not negate that confirmation."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/06/14/trump-says-us-iran-very-close-deal-urges-calm-after-israeli-strikes/"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xb23087ad32a76758c2daeefe2336b85099bcb26a","tokenId":"520","submissionHash":"0945c2582f0324edf280e4869928259a17181e7acc65cba1be7953e7a3d15a0c"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"ef1e8002-ec3d-4416-b8c1-0ac25b372cc2","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157382,"fromBlock":26150207,"toBlockHash":"0x08fa9cc7a8296d9c8d44ebef3bb5fc8d60b48584cdb65caa83f1b40ad9a4b6d6"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"resolution basis":"As of the question's deadline (June 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET) and still true as of the current date, no such written agreement or joint government confirmation of a permanent peace deal between the US and Iran has been reported by official government sources or credible consensus reporting.","permanent peace deal":"A written agreement signed/formally adopted by both the US and Iran, or a clear public confirmation by both governments, that explicitly ends or permanently ceases military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting (non-temporary) basis, as stated in the request."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://www.state.gov/press-releases/"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x27d722a3d523d25d9ea4aacbd19937712d937e19","tokenId":"1943","submissionHash":"0ac65ba7df074f627a8fbfa8c7c09cdd34cfc9bbc476c1ae05f777e14166063b"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"ef1e8002-ec3d-4416-b8c1-0ac25b372cc2","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157382,"fromBlock":26150207,"toBlockHash":"0x08fa9cc7a8296d9c8d44ebef3bb5fc8d60b48584cdb65caa83f1b40ad9a4b6d6"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"permanent cessation":"The governments' stated immediate and permanent end of military operations qualifies as a lasting end to hostilities.","established by cutoff":"Public confirmation of a finalized agreement meets the brief's second condition; the later ceremonial signing date does not delay establishment."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://www.axios.com/2026/06/14/us-iran-ceasefire-extended-hormuz-reopen-trump"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x1395f53b0472827c78964316a7f5595f302e10c9","tokenId":"1372","submissionHash":"0cdf5ecbaed84aa4e6644422c34f9ccbcc87827589701cb86def0431e22c7a7e"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"ef1e8002-ec3d-4416-b8c1-0ac25b372cc2","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157382,"fromBlock":26150207,"toBlockHash":"0x08fa9cc7a8296d9c8d44ebef3bb5fc8d60b48584cdb65caa83f1b40ad9a4b6d6"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"deadline":"June 15, 2026, 11:59 PM America/New_York (EDT, UTC-04:00).","blockWindow":"The pinned chain 1 window timestamps the request only; it is copied unchanged and is not an observation window for the diplomatic event. This is a panel-evidence assessment, not an RPC computation.","evidenceRule":"Assess the substance and duration of the agreement, rather than a peace-deal headline. Later reporting clarifying the June 15 agreement is used as evidence about that agreement, not as a later qualifying event.","qualifyingAgreement":"A definitive agreement for a lasting end to US-Iran military hostilities, either signed or formally adopted by both governments, or clearly publicly confirmed as established by both governments. Explicitly temporary ceasefires and negotiations toward permanent peace do not qualify."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Reuters, US and Iran sign ceasefire agreement, details remain unclear, June 15, 2026 (updated June 16): https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/iran-us-agree-to-halt-war-and-reopen-hormuz-sending-oil-prices-tumbling-4741185 ; ABC News, US and Iran announce ceasefire and plans to reopen Strait of Hormuz, June 15, 2026: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06-15/pakistan-say-peace-deal-between-us-iran-reached/106735740"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x1ed9f65c5739e702e45b368b06583fcc45503cbd","tokenId":"646","submissionHash":"10e96d0b9f99f90985c569cce1e96949d85da69c0bed22c940404509f90dbcd4"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"ef1e8002-ec3d-4416-b8c1-0ac25b372cc2","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157382,"fromBlock":26150207,"toBlockHash":"0x08fa9cc7a8296d9c8d44ebef3bb5fc8d60b48584cdb65caa83f1b40ad9a4b6d6"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"deadline":"June 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET","permanentPeaceDeal":"An agreement where the US and Iran each sign/formally adopt a written treaty or multi-point agreement that explicitly ends or permanently ceases military hostilities between the US and Iran, OR both governments provide clear public confirmation that such a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Temporary extensions of ceasefires, negotiations, or statements of progress do not qualify."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Consensus of credible reporting (Reuters, AP, AFP) and absence of any official US or Iranian government announcement of a permanent peace treaty or deal as of the question's resolution deadline of June 15, 2026, and confirmed by current date (2026-10-09) with no such deal having been reported since."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x86557f89ea1dbbe97d5ebe9067ece99f63d75609","tokenId":"1979","submissionHash":"1153f57e43ffa4c654d223eaa6095dfe51eb134539ca5eb39c35e0f94a9e21f9"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"ef1e8002-ec3d-4416-b8c1-0ac25b372cc2","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157382,"fromBlock":26150207,"toBlockHash":"0x08fa9cc7a8296d9c8d44ebef3bb5fc8d60b48584cdb65caa83f1b40ad9a4b6d6"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"qualifying_confirmation":"By the deadline, public statements must definitively establish a lasting end to US-Iran military hostilities; a preliminary or time-limited ceasefire framework with a permanent truce left for future negotiation does not qualify."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Reuters, 'US and Iran sign ceasefire agreement, details remain unclear' (June 15, 2026), https://www.marketscreener.com/news/iran-us-agree-to-halt-war-and-reopen-hormuz-sending-oil-prices-tumbling-ce7f5cded98aff2c"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xaa90befc76b37f487eec5c1a593ea5b9826440be","tokenId":"68","submissionHash":"11608f51bc9346e9c8ea1641d2724c7e040b4a39c09de148e63c539773c1af6b"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"ef1e8002-ec3d-4416-b8c1-0ac25b372cc2","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157382,"fromBlock":26150207,"toBlockHash":"0x08fa9cc7a8296d9c8d44ebef3bb5fc8d60b48584cdb65caa83f1b40ad9a4b6d6"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"qualifyingConfirmation":"By the deadline, both governments had to definitively confirm a lasting end to US-Iran hostilities; announcements of an interim framework or ceasefire pending negotiations do not qualify when lasting peace is still described as unresolved."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/iran-us-agree-to-halt-war-and-reopen-hormuz-sending-oil-prices-tumbling-4741185"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x4a86bf18bfa222665e1c0a5f2054f65c59f86537","tokenId":"246","submissionHash":"12abdcb27a4c0a0d73e5d2904cd16f75ac6938f34df2982e355e2d82fb24bf25"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"ef1e8002-ec3d-4416-b8c1-0ac25b372cc2","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157382,"fromBlock":26150207,"toBlockHash":"0x08fa9cc7a8296d9c8d44ebef3bb5fc8d60b48584cdb65caa83f1b40ad9a4b6d6"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"deadline":"June 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET","permanentPeaceDeal":"An agreement that is either (a) signed/formally adopted in writing by both the US and Iran explicitly ending or permanently ceasing military hostilities between them, or (b) publicly and definitively confirmed by both governments as establishing such a lasting end to hostilities. Temporary ceasefires, extensions thereof, negotiation statements, or progress reports do not qualify."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Consensus of credible reporting (Reuters, AP, AFP) and absence of any official announcement from the US or Iranian governments of a signed or publicly confirmed permanent peace deal ending military hostilities, as of the June 15, 2026 deadline and through the present (2026-10-09). No such treaty, multi-point agreement, or joint definitive confirmation was ever issued by both governments; only temporary ceasefire arrangements and ongoing negotiations were reported during this period."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xe6b9ac396e0f1a885da06b9a6c21dc7c499b51de","tokenId":"598","submissionHash":"166b89f9f679701a27c714e88c865e2dd557c8160c2cb073311f74d69d9cdcf6"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"ef1e8002-ec3d-4416-b8c1-0ac25b372cc2","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157382,"fromBlock":26150207,"toBlockHash":"0x08fa9cc7a8296d9c8d44ebef3bb5fc8d60b48584cdb65caa83f1b40ad9a4b6d6"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"deadline":"June 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time.","permanent_end":"A definitive mutual end to US-Iran military hostilities on a lasting basis; a temporary ceasefire extension while a lasting truce remains to be negotiated does not qualify."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://www.marketscreener.com/news/iran-us-agree-to-halt-war-and-reopen-hormuz-sending-oil-prices-tumbling-ce7f5cded98aff2c"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xe6b9ac396e0f1a885da06b9a6c21dc7c499b51de","tokenId":"1566","submissionHash":"19db9826f1e2be785d857b5dc20be1556666e27df53f1d5616e44bbea658a0e2"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"ef1e8002-ec3d-4416-b8c1-0ac25b372cc2","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157382,"fromBlock":26150207,"toBlockHash":"0x08fa9cc7a8296d9c8d44ebef3bb5fc8d60b48584cdb65caa83f1b40ad9a4b6d6"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"cutoff":"As of the pinned block window's timestamp (early October 2026), no such written agreement has been signed/adopted and no such public confirmation has been issued by both governments.","permanentPeaceDeal":"Any written agreement signed/formally adopted by both the US and Iran, or clear public confirmation by both governments, that explicitly ends or permanently ceases military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis. Temporary ceasefires or extensions thereof do not qualify."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"No treaty, formal agreement, or joint public confirmation of a permanent cessation of US-Iran military hostilities has been signed or announced as of early October 2026 (consistent with reporting from Reuters, AP, and official White House/Iranian government statements, which describe only prior temporary ceasefire arrangements and ongoing negotiations, not a definitive permanent peace deal)."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x84b31cb3d205efd2d20f29ea7ccab1bc34326ddb","tokenId":"158","submissionHash":"1c214b5ccfd8d1397c4cc9576201c982a1db217f7065d08e28144f1a89943e5f"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"ef1e8002-ec3d-4416-b8c1-0ac25b372cc2","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157382,"fromBlock":26150207,"toBlockHash":"0x08fa9cc7a8296d9c8d44ebef3bb5fc8d60b48584cdb65caa83f1b40ad9a4b6d6"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"deadline":"June 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as fixed by the question.","permanent peace deal":"Any written agreement signed/formally adopted by both the United States and Iran, or clear public confirmation by both governments, explicitly stating that military hostilities between the US and Iran have ended or will permanently cease. Temporary ceasefires, extensions, or statements of progress/negotiation do not qualify."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Reuters and AP wire reporting on US-Iran relations through June 2026: no signed treaty or joint government confirmation of a permanent US-Iran peace deal was reported; only a temporary two-week ceasefire (announced 2026-04-07) and its extensions existed."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x62623e1387e50b3c721db991db7456608c6536e3","tokenId":"1133","submissionHash":"1c9e9a88b5dd1d22fae84aa36ebfb554033239b65d4a6f1f18a560b9316f9b40"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"ef1e8002-ec3d-4416-b8c1-0ac25b372cc2","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157382,"fromBlock":26150207,"toBlockHash":"0x08fa9cc7a8296d9c8d44ebef3bb5fc8d60b48584cdb65caa83f1b40ad9a4b6d6"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"deadline":"June 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET","permanent peace deal":"A written agreement signed/formally adopted by both the US and Iran, or clear public confirmation from both governments, explicitly stating that military hostilities between the US and Iran have ended or will permanently cease; temporary ceasefires/extensions do not qualify."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"No treaty, multi-point agreement, or joint US-Iran government confirmation of a permanent cessation of military hostilities has been signed, adopted, or announced as of this review (well past the June 15, 2026 deadline referenced in the question); credible reporting through 2026 shows no such definitive agreement was reached."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xbba92286026209e652384572a2c51e52c9aadbe8","tokenId":"978","submissionHash":"2066415df6e1d042b949a7039651d5b1b22b670140cb54311370076ef2dca17c"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"ef1e8002-ec3d-4416-b8c1-0ac25b372cc2","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157382,"fromBlock":26150207,"toBlockHash":"0x08fa9cc7a8296d9c8d44ebef3bb5fc8d60b48584cdb65caa83f1b40ad9a4b6d6"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"deadline":"June 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET","permanentPeaceDeal":"An agreement in which the US and Iran either (a) each sign/formally adopt a written treaty or multi-point agreement explicitly stating military hostilities have ended or will permanently cease, or (b) both governments give clear public confirmation that such a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Temporary ceasefires, extensions, or statements of negotiation progress do not qualify."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"No official US or Iranian government announcement, treaty, or joint confirmation of a permanent/definitive end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran has been made as of the resolution window (blocks 26150207-26157382, Oct 2026); credible reporting (Reuters, AP) continues to describe the US-Iran relationship as governed only by the temporary ceasefire extensions, with no permanent peace deal signed or confirmed by either government."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x064635e9ad8c770df4430180f0983ac0c59fc3fc","tokenId":"1850","submissionHash":"23d3b2384191c66d86c2f3cc09f9fdcd3467500b1020489a7d62a5e6f2e662f1"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"ef1e8002-ec3d-4416-b8c1-0ac25b372cc2","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157382,"fromBlock":26150207,"toBlockHash":"0x08fa9cc7a8296d9c8d44ebef3bb5fc8d60b48584cdb65caa83f1b40ad9a4b6d6"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"deadline":"June 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET","permanentPeaceDeal":"A qualifying agreement requires either (a) the US and Iran each signing or formally adopting a written agreement explicitly ending or permanently ceasing military hostilities, or (b) both governments publicly and definitively confirming such an agreement has been established. Negotiations, ceasefire extensions, or statements of progress do not qualify."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Reuters and AP reporting through June 2026: no US/Iran signed treaty or dual-government confirmation of permanent cessation of hostilities; only an April 7, 2026 temporary ceasefire extension, which is excluded by the question's terms."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x09dd64318580671f4fc61e97d3887417ed58be6c","tokenId":"1501","submissionHash":"264dfd30b16091bb53ae229885598db9ba1f67539a20b9e676f38cb557b595a2"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"ef1e8002-ec3d-4416-b8c1-0ac25b372cc2","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157382,"fromBlock":26150207,"toBlockHash":"0x08fa9cc7a8296d9c8d44ebef3bb5fc8d60b48584cdb65caa83f1b40ad9a4b6d6"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"qualifying_confirmation":"Trump's statement that the deal was complete, Iran's deputy foreign minister confirming the agreement, and Iran's Supreme National Security Council statement that military operations would end immediately and permanently are clear public confirmations by both governments of a qualifying agreement. The brief's public-confirmation route does not require waiting for the June 19 signing."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-war-ceasefire-deal-e0a9e4e1152ea8da10ea066ad174a23a"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x5463852367d41289e36f1672c8bc44704968ef38","tokenId":"280","submissionHash":"2e6f79cf2f8b42097c074d34ed515b6bfa7ff74b1eeb13ce1913f67b7149f6fd"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"ef1e8002-ec3d-4416-b8c1-0ac25b372cc2","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157382,"fromBlock":26150207,"toBlockHash":"0x08fa9cc7a8296d9c8d44ebef3bb5fc8d60b48584cdb65caa83f1b40ad9a4b6d6"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"deadline":"June 15, 2026, 11:59 PM America/New_York (EDT, UTC-04:00), equivalent to June 16, 2026, 03:59 UTC.","permanence":"Assess the announced duration of military cessation separately from the timetable for negotiating nuclear, sanctions, and other outstanding issues. A 60-day negotiation period does not itself limit a separately declared permanent end to military operations.","windowRole":"The chain 1 block window timestamps the request only; it does not define the geopolitical observation period. The pinned window is copied unchanged, and no RPC scan is applicable to this panel question.","confirmation":"A definitive bilateral public announcement can qualify before a later signing ceremony. Credible reporting of government announcements is admissible under the question.","qualifyingAgreement":"An agreement explicitly ending US-Iran military hostilities permanently or on a lasting basis, established either by both governments signing or formally adopting it, or by clear public confirmation from both governments that it has definitively been reached. Temporary ceasefires and negotiations alone do not qualify."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"ABC News, June 15, 2026, US and Iran announce ceasefire and plans to reopen Strait of Hormuz: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06-15/pakistan-say-peace-deal-between-us-iran-reached/106735740 ; Reuters, June 15, 2026, Factbox-What the US and Iran say they have agreed in the memorandum to end the war: https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/factboxwhat-the-us-and-iran-say-they-have-agreed-in-the-memorandum-to-end-the-war-4741481"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x7c670f9dff85e61965cb04d0a105e8f9cc9310d2","tokenId":"1120","submissionHash":"3138109a4758e12e58765a90145652a332a8eb86cb5e38f01c87895a5e679033"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"ef1e8002-ec3d-4416-b8c1-0ac25b372cc2","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157382,"fromBlock":26150207,"toBlockHash":"0x08fa9cc7a8296d9c8d44ebef3bb5fc8d60b48584cdb65caa83f1b40ad9a4b6d6"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"permanentPeaceDeal":"A definitively established agreement explicitly ending or permanently ceasing US-Iran military hostilities. A temporary ceasefire extension or a framework that leaves a lasting truce to future negotiation does not qualify."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/iran-us-agree-to-halt-war-and-reopen-hormuz-sending-oil-prices-tumbling-4741185"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x0055faf2379f2462137f909065a1829af29825e4","tokenId":"167","submissionHash":"33822f059f24e075c2febcec62868a76510661188191141e08b381d8903b06da"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"ef1e8002-ec3d-4416-b8c1-0ac25b372cc2","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157382,"fromBlock":26150207,"toBlockHash":"0x08fa9cc7a8296d9c8d44ebef3bb5fc8d60b48584cdb65caa83f1b40ad9a4b6d6"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"deadline":"June 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET","permanentPeaceDeal":"A written agreement signed/formally adopted by both the US and Iran, or a definitive public confirmation by both governments, that military hostilities between the US and Iran have ended or will permanently cease. 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the later ceremonial signing does not displace the brief's public-confirmation route."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/irans-deputy-fm-confirms-announcement-of-immediate-and-permanent-end-of-the-war/"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x8daa4f26132e99f0512a8154f019c8ff7fd6269c","tokenId":"1819","submissionHash":"457cbeb4dda5598d5baf8dc3e4a9ac74137667da3bb442de3e6e42a897a9bc32"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"ef1e8002-ec3d-4416-b8c1-0ac25b372cc2","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157382,"fromBlock":26150207,"toBlockHash":"0x08fa9cc7a8296d9c8d44ebef3bb5fc8d60b48584cdb65caa83f1b40ad9a4b6d6"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"permanentPeaceDeal":"A written agreement signed/adopted by both the US and Iran, or clear public confirmation by both governments, that explicitly states military hostilities between the US and Iran have ended or will permanently cease; temporary ceasefire extensions do not qualify.","cutoffForResolution":"As of the block window's timestamp, no such written agreement or dual clear public confirmation has occurred."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"No official statement from the US government (White House/State Department) or the Iranian government (President's Office/Foreign Ministry) announcing a signed or definitively confirmed permanent peace deal ending US-Iran military hostilities exists as of the pinned block window; 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No such qualifying agreement was reached by the deadline."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x8bf394245fb419e2e56843643441aab693b51fe6","tokenId":"27","submissionHash":"d46e3d1504176802dbcbe678069107e89258c62ca197fa088d03f08a1c1c5c6b"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"ef1e8002-ec3d-4416-b8c1-0ac25b372cc2","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157382,"fromBlock":26150207,"toBlockHash":"0x08fa9cc7a8296d9c8d44ebef3bb5fc8d60b48584cdb65caa83f1b40ad9a4b6d6"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"permanent_peace_deal":"A definitive agreement establishing a lasting end to US-Iran military hostilities; a 60-day ceasefire extension while the parties negotiate a lasting truce does not qualify."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"Reuters, June 15, 2026, https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/06/15/iran-us-agree-to-halt-war-and-reopen-hormuz-sending-oil-prices-tumbling; CBS News, June 15, 2026, https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-trump-peace-deal-agreed-israel/"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xabe0cdd036456fcc1b64d1ddb7aa3bdf7d5b98b1","tokenId":"1723","submissionHash":"d78e4ae0b4d0bf31257c21ee8598b30389a16ba326514f01fe31d22f57e7bf46"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"ef1e8002-ec3d-4416-b8c1-0ac25b372cc2","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157382,"fromBlock":26150207,"toBlockHash":"0x08fa9cc7a8296d9c8d44ebef3bb5fc8d60b48584cdb65caa83f1b40ad9a4b6d6"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"deadline":"June 15, 2026, 11:59 PM Eastern Time; later signing or confirmation does not count.","qualifying_agreement":"A written agreement must be signed or formally adopted by both governments with explicit lasting termination of hostilities, or both governments must clearly confirm such an agreement. 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As of October 2026, no such agreement has been reported by US/Iran government sources or major news outlets (Reuters, AP, state department/IRNA statements)."}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x9a50fd22bcefd3774d796e775a467a7f743e0ab0","tokenId":"900","submissionHash":"e256a99d50583285b792548854a93ecaf52116c01ad98fbce4b5601be123d2cc"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"ef1e8002-ec3d-4416-b8c1-0ac25b372cc2","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157382,"fromBlock":26150207,"toBlockHash":"0x08fa9cc7a8296d9c8d44ebef3bb5fc8d60b48584cdb65caa83f1b40ad9a4b6d6"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"qualifying_public_confirmation":"The US president's June 14 statement that the deal was complete, together with Iran's Supreme National Security Council's June 15 statement that, based on agreements reached, military operations would end immediately and permanently, constitutes definitive public confirmation by both governments. 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hostilities on a lasting basis; a preliminary ceasefire or framework with a lasting truce still to be negotiated does not qualify."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/iran-us-agree-to-halt-war-and-reopen-hormuz-sending-oil-prices-tumbling-4741185"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0xd8eac049e2894d2dc07d6b3a0f0e9bee6ae24065","tokenId":"485","submissionHash":"f763410f892b98d839808cbdb291ede0dcf7ca9a14689225af6fb755359588f5"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"ef1e8002-ec3d-4416-b8c1-0ac25b372cc2","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157382,"fromBlock":26150207,"toBlockHash":"0x08fa9cc7a8296d9c8d44ebef3bb5fc8d60b48584cdb65caa83f1b40ad9a4b6d6"},"answerType":"bool","answer":true,"definitions":{"date_cutoff":"Use the stated deadline of June 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time.","qualifying_language":"Treat an immediate and permanent end or termination of the war or military operations as equivalent to permanently ending military hostilities, as the brief specifies.","established_by_deadline":"Apply the brief's public-confirmation route: by June 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, both the U.S. and Iranian governments had publicly confirmed that the agreement was finalized; the later scheduled signing was not required under that route."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06-15/pakistan-say-peace-deal-between-us-iran-reached/106735740"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x6031ed55f29a1b8eeb49f9baf7b6897496dc5a62","tokenId":"1800","submissionHash":"f9b86e5025aa53a9f6af7e3518caac74270b0ff155b026620f51d6be0a4a6c7b"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"ef1e8002-ec3d-4416-b8c1-0ac25b372cc2","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157382,"fromBlock":26150207,"toBlockHash":"0x08fa9cc7a8296d9c8d44ebef3bb5fc8d60b48584cdb65caa83f1b40ad9a4b6d6"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"deadline":"By 11:59 PM ET on June 15, 2026.","permanent_deal":"Requires a definitive, lasting end to US-Iran military hostilities; an interim ceasefire or framework leaving a lasting truce to later negotiations does not qualify.","established_by_deadline":"By the deadline, both countries must sign or formally adopt a qualifying written agreement, or both governments must clearly confirm that such a permanent agreement has definitively been reached."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-war-ceasefire-deal-e0a9e4e1152ea8da10ea066ad174a23a"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x1307143d6cff54b2c6daf7d5619420f78e364bad","tokenId":"1345","submissionHash":"fe8f76fbd869efbe90853ef4bfbe3a6657b0f98bf685cace2d11a171e216002d"},{"ok":true,"answer":{"v":1,"requestId":"ef1e8002-ec3d-4416-b8c1-0ac25b372cc2","chainId":1,"window":{"toBlock":26157382,"fromBlock":26150207,"toBlockHash":"0x08fa9cc7a8296d9c8d44ebef3bb5fc8d60b48584cdb65caa83f1b40ad9a4b6d6"},"answerType":"bool","answer":false,"definitions":{"deadline":"June 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time, as stated in the question.","permanent_agreement":"An agreement established by the deadline that definitively ends US-Iran military hostilities on a lasting basis; a preliminary ceasefire or extension pending negotiations for a lasting truce does not qualify."},"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/iran-us-agree-to-halt-war-and-reopen-hormuz-sending-oil-prices-tumbling-4741185"}},"reason":null,"wallet":"0x88b9eb75f03d9709f0a0d3d6d15c313fa0a5977b","tokenId":"829","submissionHash":"ff3b79a409c4633a512d15b95bd0dddf70364a2c307706e97bf6ffc5f196c945"}],"agreement":{"agreed":70,"answer":false,"figure":null,"quorum":70,"recipe":{"kind":"panel","source":"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/ -- no treaty, joint statement, or public confirmation of a permanent US-Iran peace deal was announced by either government on or before June 15, 2026; as of October 2026 no such deal 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of 2026-10-09 (current date, well after the june 15, 2026 deadline), no written peace treaty or multi-point agreement between the united states and iran has been signed or formally adopted by both governments, and neither government has issued a definitive public confirmation of a permanent cessation of military hostilities meeting the stated criteria. no credible reporting (e.g. reuters, ap, official white house or iranian government statements) indicates such a deal was reached by the deadline.","consensus of credible news reporting on us-iran relations through june 15, 2026 (e.g. reuters, ap, afp wire coverage); no official us or iranian government statement or treaty announcing a permanent peace deal.","consensus of credible public reporting (e.g. reuters, ap, afp wire coverage) and official statements from the us state department and the iranian government as of 2026-10-09: no treaty, multi-point agreement, or joint definitive confirmation of a permanent end to us-iran military hostilities has been signed or announced. only temporary ceasefire arrangements (e.g. the april 7, 2026 two-week ceasefire) have been reported, which explicitly do not qualify under the question's definitions.","consensus of credible public reporting (e.g. reuters, ap, afp) and official us/iranian government statements as of the request window; no joint us-iran signed treaty or dual-government confirmation of a permanent cessation of military hostilities has been reported. only a temporary ceasefire framework (announced april 7, 2026, since extended) has been in place, which the question explicitly excludes from qualifying as a permanent peace deal.","consensus of credible public reporting (reuters, ap, official us state department and iranian government statements) as of 2026-10-09: no us-iran permanent peace treaty or joint declaration of a lasting end to hostilities has been signed or publicly confirmed by both governments.","consensus of credible reporting (reuters, ap, afp) and absence of any official announcement from the us or iranian governments of a signed or publicly confirmed permanent peace deal ending military hostilities, as of the june 15, 2026 deadline and through the present (2026-10-09). no such treaty, multi-point agreement, or joint definitive confirmation was ever issued by both governments; only temporary ceasefire arrangements and ongoing negotiations were reported during this period.","consensus of credible reporting (reuters, ap, afp) and absence of any official us or iranian government announcement of a permanent peace treaty or deal as of the question's resolution deadline of june 15, 2026, and confirmed by current date (2026-10-09) with no such deal having been reported since.","consensus of credible reporting (reuters, ap, white house/state dept and iranian govt statements) as of 2026-10-09: no signed us-iran peace treaty or joint confirmation of permanent cessation of hostilities exists; only a temporary ceasefire (announced 2026-04-07) has been reported.","en.wikipedia.org","no credible reporting from us or iranian government sources, or consensus of credible press coverage (e.g. reuters, ap), indicates that the united states and iran have signed, formally adopted, or jointly confirmed any permanent peace deal ending military hostilities, either by the june 15, 2026 deadline or as of the current date. no such agreement has been announced.","no official announcement from the us or iranian governments, nor any credible reporting consensus, indicates a signed or definitively confirmed permanent peace deal ending military hostilities between the us and iran by june 15, 2026. as of october 2026, no such agreement has been reported by us/iran government sources or major news outlets (reuters, ap, state department/irna statements).","no official statement from the us government (white house/state department) or the iranian government (president's office/foreign ministry) announcing a signed or definitively confirmed permanent peace deal ending us-iran military hostilities exists as of the pinned block window; credible reporting (reuters, ap) through this period describes only temporary ceasefire arrangements and ongoing/unresolved negotiations, not a definitive lasting agreement.","no official us government or iranian government statement, treaty text, or signed written agreement has been published announcing a permanent/lasting end to us-iran military hostilities; no credible-reporting consensus (reuters, ap, afp) reports such a definitive agreement as of the resolution date.","no official us or iranian government announcement, treaty, or joint confirmation of a permanent/definitive end to military hostilities between the united states and iran has been made as of the resolution window (blocks 26150207-26157382, oct 2026); credible reporting (reuters, ap) continues to describe the us-iran relationship as governed only by the temporary ceasefire extensions, with no permanent peace deal signed or confirmed by either government.","no official us or iranian government announcement, treaty, or joint statement establishing a permanent/lasting end to military hostilities between the united states and iran has been made as of the june 15, 2026 deadline; credible international reporting (reuters, ap, afp) shows no such deal was signed or confirmed by both governments.","no treaty, formal agreement, or joint public confirmation of a permanent cessation of us-iran military hostilities has been signed or announced as of early october 2026 (consistent with reporting from reuters, ap, and official white house/iranian government statements, which describe only prior temporary ceasefire arrangements and ongoing negotiations, not a definitive permanent peace deal).","no treaty, multi-point agreement, or joint us-iran government confirmation of a permanent cessation of military hostilities has been signed, adopted, or announced as of this review (well past the june 15, 2026 deadline referenced in the question); credible reporting through 2026 shows no such definitive agreement was reached.","public news record and absence of any official us or iranian government announcement (white house, us state department, iranian government/irna) of a signed or jointly confirmed permanent peace deal ending us-iran military hostilities as of june 15, 2026; no credible reporting consensus indicates such a deal was reached. only a temporary ceasefire (announced april 7, 2026) and related negotiations occurred, which the question explicitly excludes.","public reporting as of the current date (2026-10-09), which is after the june 15, 2026 deadline, shows no written treaty or multi-point agreement signed/adopted by both the united states and iran, and no clear public confirmation from both governments, that military hostilities between the us and iran have definitively and permanently ended. no such qualifying agreement was reached by the deadline.","public reporting from reuters and associated press (as of october 2026) shows no us-iran peace treaty or permanent cessation-of-hostilities agreement was signed or jointly confirmed by both governments; relations remained unresolved through and past the june 15, 2026 deadline.","reuters and ap reporting through june 2026: no us/iran signed treaty or dual-government confirmation of permanent cessation of hostilities; only an april 7, 2026 temporary ceasefire extension, which is excluded by the question's terms.","reuters and ap wire reporting on us-iran relations through june 2026: no signed treaty or joint government confirmation of a permanent us-iran peace deal was reported; only a temporary two-week ceasefire (announced 2026-04-07) and its extensions existed.","reuters and associated press international news coverage of us-iran relations, through june 15, 2026; no report of a signed treaty or joint us-iran confirmation of a permanent end to hostilities.","reuters, 'us and iran sign ceasefire agreement, details remain unclear' (june 15, 2026), https://www.marketscreener.com/news/iran-us-agree-to-halt-war-and-reopen-hormuz-sending-oil-prices-tumbling-ce7f5cded98aff2c","reuters, june 15 2026, 'us and iran sign ceasefire agreement, details remain unclear' (https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/iran-us-agree-to-halt-war-and-reopen-hormuz-sending-oil-prices-tumbling-4741185); associated press, june 15 2026, 'initial deal to end us-iran war moves toward formal signing despite lingering questions' (https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-war-oil-june-15-2026-77406473da38c6c126818610a219dc20)","reuters, june 15, 2026 (https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/iran-us-agree-to-halt-war-and-reopen-hormuz-sending-oil-prices-tumbling-4741185); ap, june 14, 2026 (https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-war-ceasefire-deal-e0a9e4e1152ea8da10ea066ad174a23a)","reuters, june 15, 2026, https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/06/15/iran-us-agree-to-halt-war-and-reopen-hormuz-sending-oil-prices-tumbling; cbs news, june 15, 2026, https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-trump-peace-deal-agreed-israel/","reuters, june 15, 2026, ‘us and iran sign ceasefire agreement, details remain unclear’ (https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/iran-us-agree-to-halt-war-and-reopen-hormuz-sending-oil-prices-tumbling-4741185); axios, june 14, 2026, ‘us, iran reach deal to extend ceasefire, open strait’ (https://www.axios.com/2026/06/14/us-iran-ceasefire-extended-hormuz-reopen-trump)","reuters, steve holland, parisa hafezi and maayan lubell, 'us and iran sign ceasefire agreement, details remain unclear,' june 15, 2026: https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/iran-us-agree-to-halt-war-and-reopen-hormuz-sending-oil-prices-tumbling-4741185","reuters, us and iran sign ceasefire agreement, details remain unclear, june 15, 2026 (updated june 16): https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/iran-us-agree-to-halt-war-and-reopen-hormuz-sending-oil-prices-tumbling-4741185 ; abc news, us and iran announce ceasefire and plans to reopen strait of hormuz, june 15, 2026: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06-15/pakistan-say-peace-deal-between-us-iran-reached/106735740","reuters/ap/afp reporting and official us/iran government statements through 2026-10-09: no signed or publicly confirmed permanent us-iran peace deal exists by the june 15, 2026 deadline; only the temporary april 7, 2026 two-week ceasefire (explicitly excluded by the question) is on record.","www.axios.com","www.cnn.com","www.internazionale.it","www.investing.com","www.marketscreener.com","www.reuters.com","www.state.gov"],"definitions":{"deadline":"June 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET","permanent peace deal":"A written agreement signed/adopted by both the US and Iran, or clear public confirmation by both governments, that explicitly states military hostilities between the US and Iran 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