{"assessments":[],"deployments":[],"fuzz":[],"identity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"interpretation":"Records acceptance and evidence. Neither completion nor an AI assessment establishes correctness, safety, or independent review.","jobId":"1932d098-9ef6-47c4-a730-5df52b004f20","kind":"skill:research-report","nodes":[{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"14e30add672da887d70b7df16557713a43aa067009b9f2604ded45c9aeee6361","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network"],"skillHash":"3ddca93330036359dd721585e58e67820336a0398b7927b3c89369d6134f30f6","skillId":"research-report","tools":[]},"key":"research_report","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"3ddca93330036359dd721585e58e67820336a0398b7927b3c89369d6134f30f6","skillId":"research-report","state":"accepted"}],"objective":"You are a crypto perpetual futures trader. Produce one trade decision for a player in Paper Clash, a game where players win map tiles with leveraged trades on PaperTrade. The player has chosen to let you make every trading decision. The goal: take the tile J3 (Forest). That needs the trade to close with a net return on margin above +0.8%. If it closes below that the player keeps the PnL but not the tile, so aim to clear the line, and make the player as much as you reasonably can.\n\n## Fixed constraints\n- Market: \"BTC\" or \"ETH\" perpetual (BTC, ETH). Pick the one with the better setup right now.\n- Direction: exactly one of \"long\" or \"short\".\n- Margin: $20 (the player chose it; you don't).\n- Leverage: an integer from 50 to 1000 inclusive (the tile's minimum, and PaperTrade's $1,000-$10M position size).\n- Take-profit: the price move in your favor, in basis points of price from the actual entry (1 bp = 0.01%), not return on margin. It must clear the line:\n        50x → bust 195 bp, take-profit ≥ 3.5 bp\n       525x → bust 14 bp, take-profit ≥ 1 bp\n      1000x → bust 5 bp, take-profit ≥ 0.7 bp\n- Stop-loss: a price move against the position in bp, smaller than the bust distance, or null to hold to liquidation (liquidation is then the stop).\n- No time limit: the trade stays open until the take-profit, the stop-loss (or liquidation) or the player closes it, however long that takes. There is no funding, so holding costs nothing.\n- The trade opens a few minutes after you answer (it is queued behind your report), so base the exits on moves from the actual entry, not on your quoted mid.\n\n## Papertrade execution\nEntry and exit fill at the Hyperliquid BBO mid ((best bid + best ask) / 2): no spread, slippage, funding or fee on notional.\nLiquidation: the position is liquidated when the mid moves against it by about 10000 / leverage − 5 bp, and the whole margin is lost.\nWinning closes are haircut (losses are not): a 0.2 bp deadband comes off the move, the gain is scaled by 0.90 / (1 + 1/(move × 15000) + 100000/(1e6 × move × 814.598)) (move as a fraction after the deadband; BTC parameters, ETH is similar), then a 2% win fee. The keep is ~49% at 3 bp, ~61% at 5 bp, ~72% at 10 bp, ~80% at 20 bp, ~85% at 50 bp: tiny take-profits are heavily taxed.\n\n## How to decide\nThe decision is yours. Pull the market data below, and look up anything else that helps (news, scheduled macro events, liquidation levels, other exchanges' flow). Be decisive: always return a trade. Express doubt through confidence, leverage and the exits, not by refusing. Higher leverage multiplies gains but shrinks the survivable adverse move; a stop-loss saves part of the margin but can stop out a trade that would have recovered.\n\n## Market data (Hyperliquid public API, no auth)\nPOST https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info with Content-Type: application/json. Times are Unix ms. For each of BTC and ETH:\n1. Candles: {\"type\":\"candleSnapshot\",\"req\":{\"coin\":\"BTC\",\"interval\":\"1m\",\"startTime\":<now-60min>,\"endTime\":<now>}}, and 5m over 6 h, 15m over 24 h. Fields: t, T, o/h/l/c (strings), v, n. Oldest first.\n2. Context: {\"type\":\"metaAndAssetCtxs\"} → [meta, ctxs]; ctxs[index of the coin in meta.universe] has markPx, oraclePx, premium, funding (hourly), openInterest, dayNtlVlm, prevDayPx.\n3. Book: {\"type\":\"l2Book\",\"coin\":\"BTC\",\"nSigFigs\":5} → levels[0] bids, levels[1] asks ({px, sz, n}, best first). mid = (best bid + best ask) / 2.\nAlso useful: {\"type\":\"recentTrades\",\"coin\":\"BTC\"}, {\"type\":\"fundingHistory\",\"coin\":\"BTC\",\"startTime\":<ms>}.\n\nUseful metrics, in bp of price so they compare with the bust distance and exits: how often recent 1m windows moved the bust distance against a position before the take-profit in its favor; per-candle adverse excursion; realized volatility over 15/30/60 min and whether it is expanding; distance from VWAP and 1m/5m EMAs; momentum agreement across 1m/5m/15m; trade flow and book imbalance near the mid; funding and premium; open interest vs price; the 24 h range; scheduled events in the next hour.\n\n## Output\nReturn ONLY one JSON object, no fences or commentary. Write it to artifacts/report.md (output \"report\"), not just the final reply. Exactly these keys:\n{\n  \"market\": \"BTC\" | \"ETH\",\n  \"direction\": \"long\" | \"short\",\n  \"leverage\": <integer 50-1000>,\n  \"take_profit_bp\": <number, favorable price move in bp from entry>,\n  \"stop_loss_bp\": <number smaller than bust_distance_bp, or null to hold to liquidation>,\n  \"bust_distance_bp\": <number, 10000/leverage - 5>,\n  \"expected_net_return_on_margin_pct\": <number, if the take-profit hits>,\n  \"confidence\": <number 0.0-1.0>,\n  \"regime\": \"trending_up\" | \"trending_down\" | \"ranging\" | \"volatile_choppy\",\n  \"entry_mid\": <number, the live mid you based the trade on>,\n  \"data_time_utc\": \"<ISO 8601 time you fetched the data>\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"<2-4 plain sentences: the evidence for the market and direction, and why this leverage and these exits fit the volatility and the line to beat>\",\n  \"risks\": \"<1-2 sentences: what would most likely stop it out or liquidate it>\"\n}\nUse JSON numbers (and null for no stop-loss).","parentJobId":null,"planHash":"4f5684a19106f2bb361e00b8f07044f9c224ad0cdf0a92902c939ea435e55755","previousHash":"0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000","projectId":"1932d098-9ef6-47c4-a730-5df52b004f20","publication":{"commit":null,"deliveredAt":null,"repoUrl":null},"receiptIdentity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"registry":"0xb6d0a187b050fa5bb0b87033a203f37becf4a775","research":[],"schema":"identitymd-work-v1","signals":[{"agentId":"50990","feedbackHash":"0a3a7c185b59f81a714a7691eba9bb95c708eb3b68e162ae2b5425fd2525fea5","nodeKey":"research_report","submissionHash":"14e30add672da887d70b7df16557713a43aa067009b9f2604ded45c9aeee6361","tag1":"verification:structural","tag2":"acceptance-v2","value":1}],"site":null,"snapshotHash":"054d73939de7e9991b4899c6421239e454ef771db463de1d62a112c24a6f20e5","state":"completed","submissions":[{"artifacts":[{"bytes":1817,"hash":"4bcde2cfdaf0e84a2311183f25cd69e0d15f2624b5d5b25f4840377acf58746d","mediaType":"text/markdown","name":"report","path":"artifacts/report.md"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":"a364735237de91b55a0529e5cc0bc35151ed2b44c3eb7bc98c049c3f0a102af4","device":"1f805d33d69c340e","findings":[],"hash":"14e30add672da887d70b7df16557713a43aa067009b9f2604ded45c9aeee6361","nodeId":"cfddb924-8ed5-41ab-93b0-a4497d2fac30","outcome":"completed","summary":"{\n  \"market\": \"BTC\",\n  \"direction\": \"long\",\n  \"leverage\": 100,\n  \"take_profit_bp\": 20,\n  \"stop_loss_bp\": 18,\n  \"bust_distance_bp\": 95,\n  \"expected_net_return_on_margin_pct\": 15.9387,\n  \"confidence\": 0.54,\n  \"regime\": \"ranging\",\n  \"entry_mid\": 80282.5,\n  \"data_time_utc\": \"2026-10-26T18:35:27.011570+00:00\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"[Hyperliquid public API](https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info) snapshots show BTC above its 1m, 5m and 15m EMA21, up 6.23 bp over the last five completed minutes, with displayed near-mid bid/ask depth of $9.95M/$1.90M; I infer a modest rebound-continuation edge, not an established uptrend. BTC is preferable to ETH because 15-minute one-minute return RMS is 2.70 versus 4.44 bp, although BTC remains down over 30 minutes and the last ten trades favor selling. At 100x on $20 margin, the 18 bp stop exceeds the observed 9.95 bp maximum one-minute downside excursion and sits well inside the 95 bp liquidation distance; the 20 bp target nets about 15.94% on margin if hit under the supplied BTC haircut formula, comfortably clearing +0.8%, with both exits measured from actual entry. Confidence is discretionary rather than calibrated: overlapping historical BTC long paths hit this target first 13 times, the stop first 20 times, and remained unresolved 26 times, so the rebound thesis has limited support.\",\n  \"risks\": \"A failed rebound near the recent $80,394 high, disappearing bids, or queued-entry drift could trigger the 18 bp stop (approximately -18% margin); an abrupt 95 bp adverse mid move could liquidate the full $20. The [New York Fed calendar](https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/calendars/i-oct26.html) lists no release in the next hour, but it is not a complete event calendar, headline shocks remain possible, and one context snapshot cannot establish an open-interest trend.\"\n}","treeHash":"538f3716f167aef08224b4cadad16fb5d0ffb799","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":139392,"inputTokens":32920,"model":null,"outputTokens":4372,"runtime":"codex","turns":3,"wallClockMs":128672}}],"verification":[{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"14e30add672da887d70b7df16557713a43aa067009b9f2604ded45c9aeee6361","verifiedTreeHash":"538f3716f167aef08224b4cadad16fb5d0ffb799","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+944e816a"}]}