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what this network's strategy loses to the arbitrageur, to take it from 3rd to 1st on Paradigm's Prediction Market board.\n\nThe challenge: a Python class quotes passive limit orders on one simulated binary market and is scored by its mean edge over 200 simulations. Simulator: https://github.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge\n\nWhere the gap is. Paradigm scores every entry on the same 200 runs and publishes what each earns from retail and loses to the arbitrageur:\n- First, 109.93: 128.26 from retail, 18.34 lost.\n- Second, 109.59: 130.77 and 21.18.\n- This network, 108.47: 130.37 and 21.90.\nSo this network out-earns the leader on retail and loses 3.56 a run more to the arbitrageur. Two clues: its mean final wealth is 1,036 against the leader's 1,074, which suggests more YES left to expire; and the best of the 200 runs, a spread-4 run, pays the leader about 1,440 and this network 1,362.\n\nOne step (engine.py): the rival's used-up lots return, the strategy quotes, the probability moves, the arbitrageur takes in full every bid above it and every ask below it, then retail trades. Each fill is scored against the probability after the move; nothing else is scored. A map of an older file of this network: of 27.7 lost a run, 14.6 fell on the 3.8 steps a run that hold a jump, and 11.0 on bids the arbitrageur filled below 5 cents, its cover for low asks.\n\nThe start file is this network's best entry, the 108.47: https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/151e0b1b16f90a1384b823bc528d6d1407f7b4bbfcc7966c12119fe483bfd326\nIt reads the rival's spread at the first step as self.s, 1 to 4 ticks, and holds a block of changes for each spread, each acting only when self.s is that spread. Its blocks: 1, a larger tick-2 ask when ahead under 1 cent; 2, a cash reserve and a shorter stock horizon; 3, a front ask held while 20 dollars are ahead; 4, sizes from each run's own flow. Every seat has one spread and changes the start file only in runs of that spread. Gains in different spreads add exactly, and a file that gains is entered as its seat wrote it. An earlier file, for checking a scorer: https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/40497298132dcc0ccc9f4c0672031c7eaae00ddcf8cf24983db989feeb3c5ca0\n\nWhat Paradigm's runs taught. A gain on unseen runs is not a gain there: one file gained 0.95 a run of its spread on 2,035 unseen runs and lost about 2.9 a run on Paradigm's, all of it to the arbitrageur. Entries are few, so only a file with a broad gain is entered: prefer a change that helps most runs a little to one that lives on a few.\n\nRules. Whatever you change must do nothing unless self.s is your spread. A run's spread is fixed by its seed: sample_config(ChallengeConfig(), ParameterVariance(), seed=N).competitor.spread_ticks, in orderbook_pm_challenge/runner.py. Choose on the seeds of your spread among 30000 to 37999 and confirm on those among 90000 to 97999. Do not tune constants or make the strategy recognise particular seeds. The operator enters files by hand: do not look for a key.","parentJobId":null,"planHash":"21998631d2bcfb43cda2666339c9330cfedc700aa6cd55990f79c23c02c6e151","previousHash":"0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000","projectId":"98effcfb-2b38-43b8-9f92-acea37880482","publication":{"commit":null,"deliveredAt":null,"repoUrl":null},"receiptIdentity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"registry":"0xb6d0a187b050fa5bb0b87033a203f37becf4a775","research":[],"schema":"identitymd-work-v1","signals":[],"site":null,"snapshotHash":"3e42d005a94a881fcd109e0dd1175c08461316519807fabec6a526ef784ac8f3","state":"completed","submissions":[{"artifacts":[{"bytes":34604,"hash":"99fe30b13f0a60a7b5e802fb9e9d35534d57b81c47d95d6385c173762e1f1ec6","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a1-rich/result.json"},{"bytes":1486,"hash":"1a5c1f8913b765e70d5d131a0b4cb0fa6d153c6a426aa5baa988f72d2d900688","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a1-rich/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"8a0937587f04a986","findings":[],"hash":"00c1742e8d01675e14b7f947aaed2cc3152c5cc48cb0844fb8c6d1cf116afc71","nodeId":"5aba7d43-390e-4474-802c-488c23907867","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/a1-rich/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/a1-rich/sources.json).\n\nNo gain survived independent validation, so the original strategy is retained. All 2,032 confirming runs and 900 cross-spread checks matched. JSON, hash, size, and timing checks passed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":8954624,"inputTokens":253306,"model":null,"outputTokens":96785,"runtime":"codex","turns":28,"wallClockMs":3742758}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":33841,"hash":"c7f4f274520f484181ba0e664f87875a63b1b410c8c8fbb66cd5d32448cfbabd","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a1-free/result.json"},{"bytes":1914,"hash":"80ff7c85551b2f7a777d36346bb1e4928ad37e2d7f3ce85a703c9a0078e1c5d8","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a1-free/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"8a28a065f3378b87","findings":[],"hash":"03da8436966b4427a920dce3132a21952cedbebc77dadb0fe2dcdd68af971a78","nodeId":"136d6235-b505-441a-a81b-7ea03fcca3ed","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/a1-free/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/a1-free/sources.json).\n\nLocal confirmation gained **0.475 edge/run** across 1,027 spread-1 runs. All 450 other-spread pairs matched exactly. Runtime was 4.4% faster. Counts were halved under the brief’s slow-scorer rule; all checks passed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":5067264,"inputTokens":63220,"model":null,"outputTokens":36233,"runtime":"codex","turns":27,"wallClockMs":3194833}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":42589,"hash":"0e0489ba0325acf8d6044dd8188651048aec3a55f38182f70b150d077bfd22fa","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a2-jumps/result.json"},{"bytes":1904,"hash":"273e5199a281ceb9467a8164fde275ebe46b846a11894e3a5f418903ebdca838","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a2-jumps/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"8ad841cd6518a96e","findings":[],"hash":"14787f497c10667a3fbebdba809da00c270540fe8c42bf29006bfbeca176822e","nodeId":"fa925f73-6476-40d0-8cd8-221fb56ff38b","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/a2-jumps/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/a2-jumps/sources.json).\n\nConfirmed gain: **+0.21772002139284313 per run** across 1,006 spread-2 runs. All 450 other-spread results matched. Timing, JSON, hash, size, and source checks passed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":13658112,"inputTokens":88597,"model":null,"outputTokens":82525,"runtime":"codex","turns":63,"wallClockMs":4912606}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":35540,"hash":"f3dbc5ccc00ed338fd02259601dca57f385ca460999e4f3e66fab4f213945718","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a4-free/result.json"},{"bytes":1015,"hash":"11d1516d0bda229095409110e70b523e7b82c2a3c872faf640bcc04f5c6caffe","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a4-free/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"918f8261a6fd589c","findings":[],"hash":"14d51cb9b7569bc9b830489ffd707ae8a36809a468d90db34a2cb5bdd28203c1","nodeId":"a683fd85-7fb0-41e2-bc65-95e2540ba5ec","outcome":"completed","summary":"The spread-4 file gains 0.50 a run on the 1,937 confirming runs (standard error 0.146), but most of that is retail: only 0.17 of it is less lost to the arbitrageur. Both output files are written and valid, and all five source quotes were re-fetched and found.\n\n**What changed.** In spread-4 runs only, the file keeps every original probe and adds 0.01-share resting probes on the ticks strictly between the price and each main quote. They keep the price located in steps where it crosses a tick while a retail order clears the probes on the other side. No constant was added or tuned.\n\n| Check | Result |\n|---|---|\n| Scorer (earlier file, 600 runs from seed 1000) | 108.63974289615767, identical to the author's |\n| Choosing runs, half used to find it (1,025) | +0.46, SE 0.148, 611 up / 414 down |\n| Choosing runs, unused half (1,025) | +0.38, SE 0.111, 601 up / 424 down |\n| Confirming runs (1,937) | +0.50, SE 0.146, 1,122 up / 815 down, trimmed +0.28 |\n| Split on confirming runs | retail +0.33, arbitrageur +0.17 |\n| Spreads 1, 2, 3 (300 runs each) | identical in every field, 0 failures |\n| Time for 200 spread-4 runs | 65.8 s start, 71.1 s mine (8.1% slower) |\n\n- **Timing is close to the limit.** The 8.1% was measured on spread-4 runs only, where the extra probes are placed, with the two processes running side by side. The limit is a tenth.\n- **Where the loss sits.** Of 24.2 a run lost to the arbitrageur on the 2,050 choosing runs, 12.9 falls on jump steps, 3.9 on no-jump moves over one tick, and 7.4 on plain steps. Bids filled below 5 cents on plain steps cost 4.8, and 1,745 YES a run expire worthless.\n- **What lost.** Moving the crossing probes to the side the arbitrageur does not take lost between 1.7 and 113 a run in four layouts. Replacing the model's one-step volatility with the exact jump mixture fixed its calibration but lost 0.18 (and 0.52 with the jump step included).\n\nThe arbitrageur gap in spread 4 is still largely open; the `next` field in the result lists what the following seat should try.\n\nFiles are in `artifacts/goal/items/a4-free/`:\n- result.json\n- sources.json","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1549638,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":5956683},"inputTokens":38,"model":"claude-fable-5-1","outputTokens":59907,"runtime":"claude","turns":25,"wallClockMs":2209900}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":60856,"hash":"476806c69d1c42987bc9039e81ea38926dda71544b21bed2e68c86c1061b4c24","mediaType":"text/markdown","name":"merge","path":"artifacts/goal/merges/01/result.md"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"97c4e9eb9244090f","findings":[],"hash":"358f3dee290b0ca65082867dbc3711d38092fee4bc54f9efd1f9d6e175db63c7","nodeId":"bcb34c3c-118f-4621-8501-774c6d65afcf","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.md](artifacts/goal/merges/01/result.md), merging all 20 results with candidate recommendations, disagreements, and source-verification caveats.\n\nChecked hashes, evidence coverage, internal links, and size: 60,856 bytes, within the 64,000-byte limit.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1446762,"inputTokens":111227,"model":null,"outputTokens":11717,"runtime":"codex","turns":4,"wallClockMs":234625}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":31351,"hash":"223247cb4c2eec5b61bac2887d098088516f73b062cd077e5299b10d72b9aae3","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a1-middle/result.json"},{"bytes":843,"hash":"e2a274ee477b8498857edb0530190a2ff2722cf1b1c73729fb9aec29da0802e1","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a1-middle/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"8a05ec1ea94411ea","findings":[],"hash":"36e9798e979ee26c65a87751f00495029b70d693c7457a70c197e68e669ff201","nodeId":"19a91be7-382d-4b06-9ce7-f0aa37b8a6f4","outcome":"completed","summary":"I found a small gain in spread 1. It's one guarded change: the \"bridge\" buy, a bid at floor(p) that builds a YES stock for later asks, now only fires below 5 cents when `self.s == 1`. Before, it ran from 2 to 10 cents. The result and sources files are written, size-checked and parse as JSON.\n\n**Base check:** the earlier file scored a mean edge of 108.63974289615767 on 600 runs, exactly the author's figure. That took 54 s, so I didn't halve any run counts.\n\n**Map of the start file (spread 1, 1,000 choosing runs):** almost all of its edge is below 5 cents: 60.3 a run from retail against 21.3 lost to the arbitrageur. From 5 to 95 cents it's only 2.29 earned against 2.41 lost. Within that band, the bids filled at ticks 6–9 gave the arbitrageur 0.39 a run against 0.35 from retail. That's where the bridge buy acts, so I cut it there.\n\n**Result on the confirming runs (2,032 spread-1 runs, 90000–97999):**\n\n| | Start file | This file | Difference |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| Mean edge | 39.0893 | 39.1268 | +0.0375 (SE 0.0373) |\n| Retail | 62.495 | 62.344 | −0.151 |\n| Arbitrageur | −23.406 | −23.217 | +0.189 |\n\n- **How broad:** 422 runs scored higher and 272 lower. Without the 20 runs that differ most, the gain is +0.0469.\n- **Choosing runs:** +0.061 on the 1,000 runs where I found it, and +0.033 on the other 1,035 that I didn't use.\n- **Other spreads:** on 900 runs (300 each of spreads 2, 3 and 4) every result is exactly the same as the start file's.\n- **Speed:** 200 runs in one process took 55.0 s against the start file's 55.4 s. A repeat gave 56.2 s against 54.7 s, so about the same either way.\n\nThe gain is about the size of its standard error, so read it as a low-risk add-on rather than a proven improvement. Everything else I tried in this band lost or came out even:\n- smaller or larger quotes;\n- quoting further from or closer to the price;\n- no quotes above 50 or above 80 cents;\n- no quotes in the last quarter of the run (lost 0.14 a run);\n- no 1-cent stock bid above 5 cents.\n\n**Next seat:** go after the losses below 5 cents, which is outside this seat's band. One is the 1-cent stock bids hit when the price jumps down. The other is low asks crossed when the price jumps up: about 2.1 a run filled at 20–50 cents in the last quarter.\n\nFiles are in `artifacts/goal/items/a1-middle/`:\n- `result.json`\n- `sources.json`","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1414142,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":1266930},"inputTokens":56,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":24526,"runtime":"claude","turns":30,"wallClockMs":2322738}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":32872,"hash":"8cf0f13e127b020216a1033a1408db3bbe700efcf83213e45c8f03bbc9501521","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a2-middle/result.json"},{"bytes":1574,"hash":"0948be8e6c8327735616a53803ac76500f4bdc059a4acb99449bcd6a03c3030b","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a2-middle/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"8af9903f4ad1eed0","findings":[],"hash":"3a83fc96eaf5dedb24e7d73ae62dc188165f81db7712e2261572624c0d0bd393","nodeId":"6612decf-0698-4f9b-a32e-ffc1939fe9d4","outcome":"completed","summary":"My spread-2 change gains +0.110 a run (SE 0.036) on the 2,011 confirming runs (spread-2 seeds in 90000–97999). It comes mostly from retail, not from cutting what the arbitrageur takes. The result and sources files are written and parse.\n\n**Setup check.** Your earlier file scored exactly the author's 108.63974289615767 on seeds 1000–1599, in 54 s, so I didn't halve any run counts.\n\n**What the map showed (start file, 1,977 spread-2 choosing seeds in 30000–37999).** Between 5 and 95 cents, no price band or side loses more to the arbitrageur than retail pays; retail pays about 3× more everywhere. The weak spots are late in the run and on jumps:\n- On asks at 5–20¢, the arbitrageur's take as a share of retail's payment rises from 0.16 in the third quarter to 0.51 in the last.\n- On those same asks, jump steps cost 1.91 a run.\n\n**What I tried.** Each change acts only in spread-2 runs, between 5 and 95 cents. I found each on half the choosing seeds and kept it only if it also gained on the other half.\n\n| Change | Half A, per run | Half B, per run | Kept? |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| Shrink every quote in the band | −0.45 (SE 0.12): retail fell more than the arbitrageur's take | not run | no |\n| Estimate each run's jump rate | +0.03 (SE 0.06): about one visible jump per run, too little to learn from | not run | no |\n| Exact one-step price move, 20 points | +0.10 | +0.10 | replaced by the 60-point version |\n| Exact one-step price move, 60 points | +0.14 (SE 0.04) | +0.15 (SE 0.08) | **yes, final** |\n\n**The change.** The start file treats the next step's price move as a bell curve. Late in a run and away from 50¢ the real move is lopsided: at 10¢ the price can rise much further than it can fall. I replaced that bell curve with the exact distribution of the next price, worked out over 60 points. It adds no fitted constant; the jump handling and the rest of the file are unchanged.\n\n**Confirmation:**\n- **Gain:** +0.110 a run, +0.111 with the 20 most different runs removed.\n- **Spread:** 1,177 runs up and 834 down.\n- **Split:** retail +0.157 a run, arbitrageur −0.047 a run (it takes slightly more).\n- **Failures:** none.\n- **Other spreads:** 300 runs each of spreads 1, 3 and 4 match the start file field for field.\n- **Speed:** 200 runs in one process take 68.04 s against the start file's 67.77 s, 0.4% slower.\n- **Size:** the code is 23,403 bytes.\n\nI checked all 8 quotes in `sources.json` against their URLs, and each is there. `git status` lists dotfiles in the repository root (`.bashrc`, `.gitmodules`, `.claude/` and others). I didn't create them and left them alone; you may want to make sure they're excluded from the submission. My working files are all under `.cache/`.\n\nFor the next seat, `next` in the result suggests carrying the same exact treatment into the jump part of the quote model, into spreads 1, 3 and 4 under their own guards, and below 5¢.\n\nFiles are in `artifacts/goal/items/a2-middle/`:\n- result.json\n- sources.json","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":2437892,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":1924209},"inputTokens":69,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":34235,"runtime":"claude","turns":41,"wallClockMs":1989674}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":26660,"hash":"eef93bef6ed137eb972c423808e9e38452603318fddc62dc7d2fd1a4de69177b","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a1-after/result.json"},{"bytes":15,"hash":"73608e3346e331760ac29f17144976922e84678fed8a2eb7cc66f6ef0e89a33c","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a1-after/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"89eed35842d609d7","findings":[],"hash":"3e45d69b8df0f74a1c7d4bd718092deb84ffee5c589241ecbbee1788b74f602c","nodeId":"a5b81263-454e-482d-abc5-9b6d65ec5881","outcome":"completed","summary":"I wrote `result.json` and `sources.json` (empty list), but the scorer check never finished, so `base_mean_edge` is `null`. The change itself is a small gain that isn't statistically significant, and much of the checking was cut down.\n\n**What I changed.** The strategy now halves both its bid and ask sizes for one step. That happens only when `self.s == 1` and the rival's best bid or ask moved two or more ticks since the last step.\n\n**Scorer check.** The CLI run of the earlier file timed out at 10 minutes twice, once at 600 sims on 4 workers and once at 300 sims on 8 workers. This machine runs about 5 seconds a simulation on effectively one core. Because of that, I cut the other run counts below.\n\n**What the loss looks like.** I measured this on 30 spread-1 runs of the start file:\n- **Concentration:** 19.9 steps a run each lose more than 0.05 to the arbitrageur, and they carry 19.69 of the 20.29 lost a run.\n- **Clustering:** the five steps after such a step lose 10.14 a run, about 0.18 a step against 0.0101 on average.\n- **Rival quote shifts:** shifts of two ticks or more happen 95.4 times a run. The step of the shift loses 1.49 a run, but the four steps after it lose less than average.\n- **Probe and arbitrageur-fill flags:** I built them, but they were true on almost every step, so they gave no signal. I did not use them.\n\n**Choosing runs.** I used the first 64 spread-1 seeds in 30000–37999. A first idea, halving sizes for 2 steps after any own fill, lost 1.16 a run, so I dropped it. The shift-triggered version gained 0.484 a run there, with 23 runs up and 19 down, and was positive on both halves of the runs.\n\n**Confirming runs.** These were the first 64 spread-1 seeds in 90000–97999:\n\n| | Value |\n|---|---|\n| Mean edge | 33.976 |\n| Retail edge | 55.263 |\n| Arbitrageur edge | −21.287 |\n| Failures | 0 |\n| Diff vs start file (mean) | +0.126, standard error 0.097 |\n| Runs up / down | 28 / 8 |\n| Diff without the 20 runs that differ most | +0.0003 |\n\nThe trimmed figure means the gain sits in the biggest-difference runs, so treat it as weak evidence.\n\n**Other spreads and speed.**\n- **Other spreads:** I ran 12 seeds each of spreads 2, 3 and 4 from 90000 up, for 36 runs rather than 900. Every result was identical to the start file, and the spread guard makes that expected.\n- **Speed:** I timed 6 runs of each file and scaled to 200, which gives about 837 s for the start file and 834 s for mine. The brief asked for 200 measured.\n\n**Next seat:** the result notes telling arbitrageur fills from retail fills at the fill step, so the hold-back applies only after arbitrageur hits.\n\nFiles are in `artifacts/goal/items/a1-after/`:\n- `result.json`\n- `sources.json`","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":724419,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":419153},"inputTokens":40,"model":"claude-sonnet-5-5","outputTokens":15479,"runtime":"claude","turns":20,"wallClockMs":3818443}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":60675,"hash":"be28481bad801e43bc8216b42bef60a70442b4365aa8252cb49d5208f253206a","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a4-rich/result.json"},{"bytes":1004,"hash":"8f0ee3fe4f42582f1e6ade644d1a33d3be81adc209288942c87a9cc9ad119eb6","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a4-rich/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"884410e598069409","findings":[],"hash":"4e3bf99db17ca707e54d09a47d162fe91ff8d2db26905dc54f134d91dc7c1c43","nodeId":"78931341-50c5-4ab4-81cc-786ae76c91b6","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/a4-rich/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/a4-rich/sources.json).\n\nConfirmed gain: **0.5890 edge/run** across 1,937 runs. All 900 other-spread results identical. Timing and deliverable checks passed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":7098240,"inputTokens":90858,"model":null,"outputTokens":62967,"runtime":"codex","turns":28,"wallClockMs":2412312}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":26111,"hash":"7270cc5c994de53f2e1b63280d773928fc38a264411f0be12b060541510ad955","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a2-free/result.json"},{"bytes":15,"hash":"73608e3346e331760ac29f17144976922e84678fed8a2eb7cc66f6ef0e89a33c","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a2-free/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"8bb0b3872ad89cb1","findings":[],"hash":"5fec3b8e811495ef2c2127211d617322fe628f035b25404f00aa5624036a29b0","nodeId":"f4596477-9811-48a9-9c18-bbd8521f33b0","outcome":"completed","summary":"I found no change that cuts spread 2's arbitrage loss, so the result file returns the start file's code unchanged, with `diff.mean` 0.\n\n**Scorer check:** the earlier file scores exactly 108.63974289615767 on seeds 1000–1599, matching its author. That run took 7 min 58 s, and this machine effectively ran simulations on one core (about 0.85 s a run). So I cut the run counts well past half: 240 choosing and 240 confirming spread-2 runs. A first logged pass on 1,000 runs timed out after 10 minutes and cost time.\n\n**Where the loss is (spread 2, start file, 240 choosing runs):** it earns 77.70 a run, 103.74 from retail and −26.04 lost to the arbitrageur. My logger counted later runs several times, so its amounts are inflated (they sum to −72 against the true −26) and only the ranking holds. Nearly all the loss is below 5 cents:\n- asks taken on jump steps, by far the largest;\n- cover bids filled as the probability drifts down on plain steps, second;\n- bids taken on jump steps, third.\n\n**Ideas tried, all rejected:**\n\n| Idea (spread 2 only) | Result on choosing runs |\n|---|---|\n| A: halve the 2–10¢ bridge goal for cover bids | Exactly the start file's score; it never takes effect |\n| B: count jump risk twice when sizing asks below 5¢ | −0.60 a run |\n| C: drop the cover bid resting one tick under p | +0.024 a run (standard error 0.085); halves −0.14 and +0.18, so noise |\n\n**On the confirming runs:** the start file earns 76.08 a run: 100.52 from retail, −24.44 lost to the arbitrageur, no failures.\n\n**Steps I didn't fully run:**\n- I skipped the 300-runs-per-other-spread check because the delivered code is the start file byte for byte. `others_identical` reads `runs: 0` with `identical: true`.\n- The timing figures are for 240 runs, not 200, and both are the same file.\n\n**Next seat:** go after low asks taken by upward jumps, for example by pulling asks below 5¢ for a step after signs of an upward move. Use many more than 240 runs, since a change the size of C was smaller than the noise.\n\nThe result is in `artifacts/goal/items/a2-free/result.json` (26 KB). `sources.json` lists no sources, since I relied only on the simulator and the files the brief linked.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":590285,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":589394},"inputTokens":37,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":10115,"runtime":"claude","turns":19,"wallClockMs":2365746}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":47504,"hash":"08d9e43fbc9ed039fd9d0c325138a7b6887a9fae1e988dce44fe411f095b8e1f","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a4-after/result.json"},{"bytes":4005,"hash":"293c91f1def5c29fffeaae329134b64af9ecb5fd1d49d5b72df1b78eb370191a","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a4-after/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"8f87b0b1cd164f2b","findings":[],"hash":"676a97d8602e6b095fd643e2af8af2b8a94e4cdfd1b0b68472fc44492870e1ee","nodeId":"b8ed25e1-9c62-4a16-a674-3ce51d14bdc4","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/a4-after/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/a4-after/sources.json).\n\nNo candidate passed validation, so the original strategy is retained. Checked 1,937 confirming pairs and 900 identical other-spread pairs. Timing, size, hash, JSON, and source checks passed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":22221824,"inputTokens":113391,"model":null,"outputTokens":84415,"runtime":"codex","turns":53,"wallClockMs":4420863}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":33577,"hash":"b3068290c77e8999273e639d0931ec3be3d337b4be9fe41655995b1ef43b0cd6","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a4-stock/result.json"},{"bytes":2472,"hash":"5172d5f4c998caedc7cd433a395658a7c45f4fd4d0cbbb6ed718696014eeff0b","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a4-stock/sources.json"}],"attempt":2,"bundleHash":null,"device":"94220c4a6ab72976","findings":[],"hash":"67ad4f4f0b34457594aef60d567d975260177007c02b27947d4dc89cd8a15fd8","nodeId":"ee8c1ac4-cd0d-4f6f-bb92-494e7127ef5f","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created and locally validated [result.json](/root/.identitymd/work/98effcfb-2b38-43b8-9f92-acea37880482/ee8c1ac4-cd0d-4f6f-bb92-494e7127ef5f/artifacts/goal/items/a4-stock/result.json) and [sources.json](/root/.identitymd/work/98effcfb-2b38-43b8-9f92-acea37880482/ee8c1ac4-cd0d-4f6f-bb92-494e7127ef5f/artifacts/goal/items/a4-stock/sources.json).\n\nHoldout gain: **+0.25931686278668026** across 976 spread-4 runs, with zero failures. All 450 other-spread comparisons were identical. Runtime passed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":26022912,"inputTokens":101800,"model":null,"outputTokens":121777,"runtime":"codex","turns":52,"wallClockMs":5916773}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":36412,"hash":"4b6469a05a8b7981e4032ae458b2adf496fde032328bccaae9d05b140ec24cd6","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a4-ledger/result.json"},{"bytes":1867,"hash":"659ddf77cafbd4a0522a5ce7c01addeaa4619a628900980e4efac2684ad706bd","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a4-ledger/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"8df16409e9706163","findings":[],"hash":"691908bb88f9b096e7435b36d40ca6f0e615aee408ce43c16e20e78d1ea1e1ed","nodeId":"23aa0879-0f23-4571-bf79-a644a523aac0","outcome":"completed","summary":"Wrote [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/a4-ledger/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/a4-ledger/sources.json).\n\nThe spread-4 fix removes the bid loss discount once inventory meets its target. Confirmed gain: **0.5808840586829631 edge/run** across 1,937 pairs, with zero failures.\n\nAll 900 other-spread comparisons were identical. Size, hash, JSON, source, and timing checks passed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":4169984,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":1482257},"inputTokens":58725,"model":"gpt-6.1-sol","outputTokens":53081,"runtime":"codex","turns":28,"wallClockMs":2481563}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":32249,"hash":"d8a185edb6be4d9a8805e417809ae476278d873633703ae3f9fe85f18379d3c4","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a3-rich/result.json"},{"bytes":2040,"hash":"aa24d00b657b89068bc032c5a593f6e938e681f397f25e054648c738d30a7d98","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a3-rich/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"8d3c5d45c10bda24","findings":[],"hash":"701602f2fd31b98fae7f483c16b32de2f3bd79c44cd1a9e0ed819eedb11aa08f","nodeId":"07ee61c4-d558-410d-a309-a2a06e5cd77c","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/a3-rich/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/a3-rich/sources.json).\n\nConfirming gain: **+0.493 edge/run**, with zero failures. All 900 other-spread runs were identical. Runtime was 2.8% faster. All validation checks passed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":4574848,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":1516296},"inputTokens":62058,"model":"gpt-6.1-sol","outputTokens":47721,"runtime":"codex","turns":20,"wallClockMs":1990671}},{"artifacts":[],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"6007d5038419a72d","findings":[{"citation":"resolved","description":"The preferred-file recommendations in lines 50-53 identify local result.json paths and strategy-code hashes, but none of those files is delivered, the M1/M2 relative links also target absent files, and the listed strategy hashes are not downloadable artifact IDs. The operator is supposed to enter each seat's exact frozen file; prose descriptions and integrity hashes alone do not provide that file. The code is recoverable from source-item artifacts, so this is a repairable handoff defect rather than evidence that the strategies do not exist. Include direct artifact links (and identify the JSON code field) for each recommended file.","line":55,"path":"artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md","reproduction":"From the supplied tree, check artifacts/goal/items/{a1-free,a2-after,a3-ledger,a4-rich}/result.json and artifacts/goal/merges/{01,02}/result.md: all are absent. For a1-free, GET https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/aed6d158efa525beefc4a55d511818df9ba8c2c40cfb9bcc62a4978f3a9b020a (the hash printed in the recommendation) returns HTTP 404. GET https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/c7f4f274520f484181ba0e664f87875a63b1b410c8c8fbb66cd5d32448cfbabd returns HTTP 200 and JSON whose code field hashes to that exact recommended SHA-256. This working input-artifact ID is present only in M1, not in the report's recommendation. The other three recommended code-hash URLs likewise return 404, whereas their input-artifact IDs cabede3c4180c49f8c5b5d6746b51f47bff599a891a34d9777555c81ee7dfcb1, ad3b2ad91284e519d0c80ecfe18eac37e0853b90703d564341744a9639e2a761, and be28481bad801e43bc8216b42bef60a70442b4365aa8252cb49d5208f253206a return the matching code. Expected: each preferred-file recommendation offers a usable download; actual: following its file reference fails.","severity":"medium","snippet":"File names and hashes identify worker submissions; no code is included. Cross-spread gains are separable under mutually exclusive guards. Same-spread edits interact through inventory, cash, priority and rival replenishment; overlapping gains cannot be added. The ammo-pair equivalences are M1’s reported code-inspection findings. [Task brief; M1, “Equivalent changes are not additive”; M2, “Merge recommendation”]","title":"Provide working downloads for the four recommended strategy files"},{"citation":"resolved","description":"The preferred a2-after description says disappearance of a tracked main-order ID triggers the hold. The frozen submission instead requires every previously tracked main order on that side to disappear. It evaluates bool(self.s2_mb) and not (self.s2_mb & ids), and equivalently for asks. A surviving main order prevents the hold even if another tracked order was fully filled. This distinction matters when retaining an old order and topping it up: implementing the described single-ID trigger withdraws quotes more often than the file whose +0.619103 result is cited. State the all-orders condition and its side-specific action (bid depletion zeros qb, qam and q1; ask depletion zeros qa).","line":51,"path":"artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md","reproduction":"Fetch the a2-after source item at https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/cabede3c4180c49f8c5b5d6746b51f47bff599a891a34d9777555c81ee7dfcb1; its code field hashes to the report's 963807d6db6ddd2ccf3e594d938edd2c4a7452c7b1172733513b8f013d3688ab. Evaluate its on_step trigger block with self.s=2, self.s2_mb={\"b1\",\"b2\"}, self.s2_ma=set(), self.s2_lb=self.s2_la=-100, self.pcb=None, state.step=10 and state.own_orders containing b2 only. Although b1 disappeared, actual hitB is False and no bid hold is triggered; the report's single-ID description implies a hold. Repeat with no remaining own orders: actual hitB becomes True. These outcomes were reproduced by executing the unchanged trigger AST from the downloaded code. Reachability check with the unmodified simulator at the pinned revision: sample_config(..., seed=30001) has spread 2. In an unchanged a2-after run, callback step 332 has previously tracked asks {a104,a105}, surviving {a105}, and disappeared {a104}; step 430 similarly has bids {b137,b138} with only b138 surviving. The original file completes with total_edge=38.9277465557. Replacing only the two all-disappeared predicates with bool(tracked_ids - current_ids), as implied by the prose, completes with total_edge=41.0651598014. This is a different strategy and score, not a reproduction of the reported frozen file.","severity":"medium","snippet":"- **Spread 2: a2-after** — the broadest strong confirmation in this spread: 1378/630 up/down and trimmed 0.612694. Disappearance of a tracked main-order ID triggers a one-step response, limiting exposure after depletion; it is an observable proxy, not knowledge of who filled the order. Its arbitrage saving 1.057218 outweighs retail loss 0.438114. M1 records SHA-256 `963807d6db6ddd2ccf3e594d938edd2c4a7452c7b1172733513b8f013d3688ab`, in `artifacts/goal/items/a2-after/result.json`. a2-stock/a2-ledger offer the same effective tick-2 ammo restriction and count once. a2-jumps is smaller; a2-middle improves total edge while increasing arbitrage loss. The eight-run a2-rich result, with only one winner and no trimmed gain, does not support entry. [M1:a2-after, a2-stock, a2-ledger, a2-jumps, a2-middle, a2-rich]","title":"Correct the spread-2 hold trigger to require complete side depletion"},{"citation":"resolved","description":"The reading convention says confirmation uses matching seeds in 90000-97999 unless a subset is stated, but the a1-free, a1-ledger and a2-jumps rows provide only reduced counts, without the selection rules. These reductions are not defined later either. In particular, the preferred a1-free result is from 90000-93999 only, whereas a2-jumps uses every other matching seed across the entire window. Counts alone cannot distinguish these sampling methods or reproduce the reported comparisons. Explicitly identify each reduced choosing/confirmation set and distinguish it from completion of the task's prescribed windows.","line":11,"path":"artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md","reproduction":"Using sample_config(ChallengeConfig(), ParameterVariance(), seed=N) from simulator revision b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e, the full 90000-97999 window has 2032 spread-1 and 2011 spread-2 seeds. The a1-free source https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/c7f4f274520f484181ba0e664f87875a63b1b410c8c8fbb66cd5d32448cfbabd explicitly identifies its 1027 confirmation runs as all spread-1 seeds in 90000-93999 and its choosing window as 30000-33999; neither bound appears in its report row or recommendation. The a1-ledger source https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/826299021f309244740ddd9d6ded3c3957ddb24230dbd70a45e15178c7015121 identifies 506 confirming runs in 90000-91999. The a2-jumps source https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/0e0489ba0325acf8d6044dd8188651048aec3a55f38182f70b150d077bfd22fa identifies 1006 confirming runs as every other matching spread-2 seed in 90000-97999. The report gives 1027, 506 and 1006 without these definitions, so following its stated default selects different inputs. Expected: the table identifies these exact subsets, as it already does for a3-after and a4-stock.","severity":"low","snippet":"The table has one row per item. “Δ (SE)” is mean paired candidate-minus-start edge per run **of that spread**, with its standard error; retail and arb are the corresponding signed edge differences. Positive arb means less lost. M1 says its trim generally removes the **20 largest absolute paired differences**; it is not a percentage trim. Up/down excludes unchanged runs. Confirmation is on matching seeds in **90000–97999** unless a subset is stated; choosing uses matching seeds in **30000–37999**, with reductions described below. [Task brief; M1, “Complete candidate ledger”; M2]","title":"Specify the reduced seed sets instead of relying on the default full window"}],"hash":"7d494ebf820f1b4d791a50f5d6fda11de4f51b677d9f76746a52ac215c2a3943","nodeId":"34fa6a61-f7ef-47dc-9e5f-ed31966f4a92","outcome":"completed","summary":"Saved 3 findings in [.imd-findings.json](/home/imdc2/.identitymd/work/98effcfb-2b38-43b8-9f92-acea37880482/34fa6a61-f7ef-47dc-9e5f-ed31966f4a92/.imd-findings.json):\n\n- **Medium:** Missing working links to recommended strategy files.\n- **Medium:** Incorrect spread-2 depletion-trigger description.\n- **Low:** Missing seed-subset definitions.\n\nThe report is unchanged.","treeHash":null,"usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1151104,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":2764304},"inputTokens":91875,"model":"gpt-6-astra","outputTokens":13889,"runtime":"codex","turns":5,"wallClockMs":447734}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":45982,"hash":"cc477a8885c267bff72dffbe2ec2b5347d8305cd9224efc96037278e19484fe0","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a3-after/result.json"},{"bytes":2375,"hash":"f18bc0b58b0028e2a9e9e08f3213317321fff5e19475eccd7f070a0ca4e995de","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a3-after/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"8cd50ef2502bc53e","findings":[],"hash":"86e2fd7b07e4f9395124ded6697f98276c7f5d13052883607a7ddcd6d94b5ed4","nodeId":"686e1cd3-4f27-46ce-a347-b9574fc6d7a8","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created and validated [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/a3-after/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/a3-after/sources.json).\n\nSmall positive holdout gain, with substantial uncertainty reported. All 450 other-spread results matched exactly; timing passed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":11395200,"inputTokens":96224,"model":null,"outputTokens":77975,"runtime":"codex","turns":45,"wallClockMs":4431939}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":30401,"hash":"af8796c1c81547eb5de5b4c8b1ce60ea2e425dca6ecfde94bdf2d6da8a8a5190","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a1-stock/result.json"},{"bytes":969,"hash":"2f8b17d537698bf8e4b5a1863e5e04769feabaa8769b07eb78b03aff8c43a1e4","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a1-stock/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"9abb45864e8fdce1","findings":[],"hash":"9092df56199d7cc5c70406b0dd73d6a021590a85a3c4d92314c962049ebaea8d","nodeId":"c0468972-40eb-4a12-a271-14d37a8a32df","outcome":"completed","summary":"Those dotfiles are the sandbox's device-node masks created at 14:31, before my session began at 15:13, so they are not mine and nothing needs cleaning. `.cache/` and `artifacts/` are excluded by the repository's git exclude file, and the two required outputs are written and untracked.\n\n**Outcome: no change gains in spread 1, so the result returns the start file with a zero diff.**\n\n**What I measured** (instrumented engine, 2035 spread-1 choosing runs):\n- The tick-1 stock bid buys 8,539 shares a run from the arbitrageur at an edge cost of 8.79 a run. Only 8.6 shares a run of it fill against retail.\n- By depth, fills within 0.1 cent of tick 1 are 80 percent of the shares but cost 2.19. Jump landings deeper than 0.3 cent are 11 percent of the shares and cost 6.17.\n- That stock is resold mostly at tick 1 asks (37.9 a run of retail edge) and tick 2 (16.7). About 3,344 YES are left at the end, worth 3.3 of edge at the average purchase cost.\n\n**What I tried, each gated on the spread-1 branch only:**\n- Shrinking the stock to tick-2 demand lost 6.9 a run. Retail fell 11 for an arb saving of 4, so the stock is used, not surplus.\n- Resting the bid only under 2 cents was a wash on all three slices (choosing halves negative, confirming set 0.15 with standard error 0.49). The deep jump stock is resold at tick 1 for roughly what it cost.\n- Gating the bid on nearness to tick 1 lost 12 a run and raised deep fills, because the belief cannot see below tick 1.\n- Extending the bid into the dead band just under tick 1 almost never binds and was slightly negative.\n\n**Why the brief's lever is already in place:** the resting bid is filled on the crossing step itself, which is the cheapest moment possible. Buying after the crossing can only be dearer, and the only remaining cost is jumps, which are recovered when the stock is resold.\n\n**Checks:** scorer reproduced the author's base edge of 108.63974289615767 exactly. Holdout on 2032 confirming runs is 39.089 edge, 0 failures. The start file run twice on 300 runs of each other spread was identical in every field. Timing for 200 serial runs was 39.0 s and 38.8 s. Both JSON files parse, the result is 30,401 bytes, and all five source quotes were found at their URLs.\n\n**Next seat:** the open spread-1 losses below 5 cents are main bids (2.80 a run) and asks filled by the arbitrageur (6.94 a run, 2.90 of it at tick 1), where tick-1 ask sizing relies on a belief with no probe under tick 1.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":2055905,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":5953366},"inputTokens":6470,"model":"claude-fable-5-1","outputTokens":60174,"runtime":"claude","turns":39,"wallClockMs":2405346}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":33150,"hash":"ad3b2ad91284e519d0c80ecfe18eac37e0853b90703d564341744a9639e2a761","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a3-ledger/result.json"},{"bytes":1572,"hash":"3655772ec08d92bc37ebd2564e627c2a468b30068d9c5b8efb8bde60b98106c4","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a3-ledger/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"8bc60a43db2b0b29","findings":[],"hash":"90b4f1528961994949a8066b0fcc603a86a150635f6930d6d2adba5299e4bcf7","nodeId":"a46a0fc1-8cc4-4a3e-ae5b-11208839edfc","outcome":"completed","summary":"Wrote [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/a3-ledger/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/a3-ledger/sources.json).\n\nConfirming gain: **+0.48676/run** (SE 0.02737). All 900 other-spread runs matched exactly; runtime was unchanged. JSON, sizes, hash, and source quotes passed validation.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":6017280,"inputTokens":108880,"model":null,"outputTokens":41223,"runtime":"codex","turns":22,"wallClockMs":1882093}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":28029,"hash":"826299021f309244740ddd9d6ded3c3957ddb24230dbd70a45e15178c7015121","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a1-ledger/result.json"},{"bytes":15,"hash":"73608e3346e331760ac29f17144976922e84678fed8a2eb7cc66f6ef0e89a33c","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a1-ledger/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"86ae82663350f55e","findings":[],"hash":"945cc6bc2db04a633fcf65fdf405509010121512a98e366c46f6a7e716001468","nodeId":"a278f387-f6b8-49bb-8a3b-94b8aca109e6","outcome":"completed","summary":"I wrote `artifacts/goal/items/a1-ledger/result.json` and `sources.json`. The one change I found does gain on the confirming runs, but too narrowly to enter: the gain is small next to its noise and comes from a few runs.\n\n**Scorer check:** the earlier file scored 108.63974289615767 on 600 runs, exactly what its author measured. That run took 8 minutes. `--workers 4` was accepted but ran at one core's speed, so I halved every run count:\n\n| Runs | Brief | Actual |\n|---|---|---|\n| Choosing (spread 1) | ~2,035 | 498 (seeds 30000–31999) |\n| Confirming (spread 1) | ~2,032 | 506 (seeds 90000–91999) |\n| Other spreads | 900 | 200 |\n\nA 450-run check of the other spreads was cut off by a 10-minute command timeout, which is why only 200 are reported.\n\n**Ledger (498 choosing runs, per run).** I added a rule tag to every order in a scratch copy of the start file. The copy scored identically to the start file on 25 test runs.\n\n| Rule | Lost to arbitrageur | Retail earned |\n|---|---|---|\n| Tick-1 stock bid | 11.07 (5.86 on jump steps) | 0.012 |\n| Main ask | 7.61 (4.44 on jump steps) | 50.15 |\n| Main bid | 3.43 | 3.13 |\n| Spread-1 5× tick-2 ask | 0.54 | 12.31 |\n\nThe other stock rules each lose under 1, and the probes about 0.15 together. The tick-1 stock bid holds YES as cover for the low asks, so most of its value doesn't show up as its own retail.\n\n**Change:** when `self.s == 1`, the tick-1 stock bid is halved. Nothing else changes.\n- On the 262 runs I chose it on, it gained 0.52 a run.\n- On the 236 choosing runs I didn't use, it gained 0.81 a run.\n- Dropping the stock bid entirely above 3 cents lost 0.17, so I discarded that version.\n\n**Confirming runs (506):**\n\n| Measure | Value |\n|---|---|\n| Mean gain | +0.67 |\n| Standard error | 1.82 |\n| Trimmed mean (20 most-different runs removed) | −0.72 |\n| Runs up / down | 97 / 132 |\n| Retail | −3.22 |\n| Lost to arbitrageur | 3.89 less |\n\n**Other checks:**\n- **Other spreads:** all 200 runs gave identical results to the start file.\n- **Speed:** about 1.2% slower, inside the 10% limit. This comes from timing 40 runs of each file, scaled to 200, not a full 200-run timing.\n\nThe result file says plainly that this gain is the narrow kind the brief warns against entering. Its suggestion for the next seat is to size the tick-1 stock from what the run's own asks actually sell, rather than halving it for every run. The other target is the main ask's 4.44 a run lost on jump steps.\n\n`sources.json` lists no sources. Everything comes from runs on the simulator clone and the two files you gave.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":868746,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":812100},"inputTokens":44,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":14677,"runtime":"claude","turns":25,"wallClockMs":3845734}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":27303,"hash":"cf52846fa0106a2687982c19f61bbf24755cf778d969e995b76f0287b7005f9a","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a2-stock/result.json"},{"bytes":420,"hash":"1f0b528201f8ea00e0bcbdf7ca22cf14b3e723c6790836ecd417136514bbfdbf","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a2-stock/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"89214b73ec1e0b7b","findings":[],"hash":"947e2508789edea95c6c4e447c61333d5045a4617cc44338e68d2f77e7a888f5","nodeId":"8a8b09b4-0617-4844-ad13-23b15aebb18c","outcome":"completed","summary":"I found a change for spread 2 that gains +0.251 a run on the confirming runs, with no effect on any other spread. The result and sources files are written to `artifacts/goal/items/a2-stock/`.\n\n**The change:** in spread 2 only, the file no longer buys YES at tick 2 under the \"ammo\" rule, which fired when the probability was between 1 and 2 cents. That buy paid up to a tick above the probability, so the arbitrageur filled it whenever the probability fell through. In that band the tick-1 stock bid already covers the asks, and it only fills just after the probability crosses 1 cent. The edit is one condition, `and not (self.s == 2 and t == 2)`, on the ammo branch.\n\n**Scorer check:** the earlier file scored 108.63974289615767 on 600 runs, an exact match, in 132 s. That is under 5 minutes, so I didn't halve any run counts.\n\n**What the stock purchases cost** (start file, 1,001 spread-2 runs from seeds 30000–33999, per run):\n\n| Rule | Shares bought | Edge lost | Sold to retail | Left at expiry |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n| ammo | 250 | −1.96 (0.79¢/share) | 225 | 18 |\n| tick-1 stock bid (q1) | 3,042 | −2.78 (0.09¢/share) | 1,980 | 916 |\n| cross | 290 | −0.54 | 225 | 14 |\n| under | 360 | −0.43 arb, +0.44 retail | 319 | 20 |\n| bridge | 351 | −0.78 | 275 | 5 |\n\n**Results:**\n\n| Runs | Gain per run | SE | Runs up / down |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| Choosing (1,001) | +0.122 | 0.079 | 103 / 28 |\n| Unused half, 34000–37999 (976) | +0.123 | 0.040 | 94 / 25 |\n| Confirming, all spread-2 seeds 90000–97999 (2,011) | +0.251 | 0.053 | 228 / 52 |\n\n- **Confirming runs:** arbitrage +0.365, retail −0.114, trimmed mean +0.143. My file's mean edge there is 83.475, with no failures.\n- **Other spreads:** 300 runs each of spreads 1, 3 and 4 gave identical results to the start file.\n- **Speed:** 200 runs in one process took 161.6 s for my file against 162.9 s for the start file.\n\n**Rejected:**\n- Turning ammo off entirely lost 0.96 a run: arbitrage improved by 1.72, but retail fell by 2.68.\n- Turning it off only at tick 1 lost 0.95 a run.\n\n**Not tried, for lack of time:** sizing the tick-1 stock bid to the run's remaining retail demand. It leaves about 916 YES unsold at expiry each run, but at 0.09¢ a share that is worth about 0.8 a run at most. I've put this in `next` for the following seat.\n\n**Sources:** I cited the simulator's edge formula from `market.py` (checked against the live GitHub file) and the scorer figure from the earlier file's artifact.\n\n`git status` lists untracked dotfiles and folders in the repo root (`.bashrc`, `.claude/`, `.gitmodules` and others). I didn't create or change them.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1026143,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":971256},"inputTokens":47,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":18994,"runtime":"claude","turns":26,"wallClockMs":3552333}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":30518,"hash":"cabede3c4180c49f8c5b5d6746b51f47bff599a891a34d9777555c81ee7dfcb1","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a2-after/result.json"},{"bytes":586,"hash":"4b75826cf4aeabcd3306f3d55f64334d5f86fc0871e187e131cf8a590412057c","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a2-after/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"87804e27e9c9f85a","findings":[],"hash":"954ff6c62fecb460e24ac4435aa6271334251864915ed59c7de3d735f30c4d97","nodeId":"1f3e6985-2dfb-4c5b-bf36-5b5bd98650b0","outcome":"completed","summary":"For spread 2, a one-step hold-back after the arbitrageur takes one of our main quotes gains **+0.619 a run** (standard error 0.119) over the start file on the 2,011 confirming runs. 1,378 runs score higher and 630 lower. Without the 20 runs that differ most, the gain is +0.613. Both result files are written and parse as JSON.\n\n**Scorer check:** the earlier file scores a mean edge of 108.63974289615767 over 600 runs from seed 1000, exactly the author's figure. It took 61 seconds, so I didn't halve any run counts.\n\n**What I measured** (start file, first 600 spread-2 choosing runs, with a logging copy of the engine that scores the same way):\n- **After an arbitrage fill:** on the step right after the arbitrageur fills a real (non-probe) order, we lose 0.039 a step, against 0.0046 on plain steps. That is −4.77 a run over 123 steps. The losses come from new orders on the same side being hit again: tick-1 stock bids (−1.81 a run), main bids (−1.28), other cover bids (−1.00) and main asks (−0.37). Steps 2 to 5 after the fill are close to plain.\n- **After the rival's quotes shift two ticks or more:** only the next step is worse (0.014 a step).\n- **After a probe is taken:** probes are taken on almost every step, so this mark doesn't separate anything.\n- **Biggest single loss, not addressed:** main asks left resting from earlier steps and hit on jump steps cost 8.2 a run.\n\n**The change** (acts only when `self.s == 2`): the strategy remembers which of its main bid and ask orders were resting at the end of each step. If none of the main bids is still there at the next step, it places no main bid, stock bid or tick-1 bid for that one step. The ask side works the same way. No constants were tuned. I chose this version on the choosing runs, and it gained on both halves of them: +0.565 on the 1,000 I used to find it and +0.756 on the 977 I held back. Holding for two steps, or holding only the bid side, gained on fewer runs, so I rejected them.\n\n**Confirming runs:**\n\n| | Value |\n|---|---|\n| Mean edge, my file | 83.84 |\n| Mean edge, start file | 83.22 |\n| Arbitrage loss saved | +1.06 a run |\n| Retail edge given up | −0.44 a run |\n| Failures | 0 |\n\n**Other spreads:** 300 runs each of spreads 1, 3 and 4 give exactly the same results as the start file.\n\n**Speed:** on 200 runs in one process, my file takes 75.6 s against 74.7 s, which is 1.2% slower.\n\nThe frozen file still computes two shift flags that nothing uses. I left them in because the file was confirmed with them and they change no result.\n\nFor the next seat: try the same hold-back on the step after a two-tick rival shift, which I didn't test. Shrinking the held side instead of zeroing it might win back some of the retail edge. The same one-step hold could also be tested in spreads 1, 3 and 4.\n\nThe sources file cites three passages: two lines from the simulator's `engine.py` and `runner.py`, and the 108.63974289615767 figure from the earlier file's artifact.\n\nFiles are in `artifacts/goal/items/a2-after`:\n- result.json\n- sources.json","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1664352,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":1456812},"inputTokens":55,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":26518,"runtime":"claude","turns":29,"wallClockMs":1981270}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":28083,"hash":"92ec7378991a8902017d1081c92c85c479af1c145e0763f9d12f33bb124096e3","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a3-free/result.json"},{"bytes":416,"hash":"b3845c7b4460591dba3b174be784241b0ad2d3dd3b271323e7cbb6a2c053e71a","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a3-free/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"8d428b115b0ebd64","findings":[],"hash":"9c703ac2bac52acf0c41b9c9dd6ff1623201f5df03ca3747ba4b4b40f043ad8f","nodeId":"4b72e7c9-c825-478d-a0d7-f01fcb471cab","outcome":"completed","summary":"In spread 3 my file gains +0.284 a run over the start file on the 2020 confirming runs, with a standard error of 0.042. Nearly all of it is arbitrage loss avoided (+0.320), and retail edge moves by only −0.036.\n\n**Scorer check:** the earlier file scored 108.63974289615767 on 600 runs with 4 workers, exactly what its author measured. It took 32 seconds, so I kept the full run counts.\n\n**Where spread 3 loses to the arbitrageur** (1938 choosing runs, about 28.3 a run lost; the logging copy scored the same as the real simulator):\n- **Biggest loss:** bids at 1–4¢ filled on ordinary steps, −6.62 a run.\n- **Next:** asks at 1–4¢ filled on jump steps, −4.12 a run.\n- **Why the low bids are worth keeping:** they build the YES stock behind the 3¢ ask, which earns +65 a run from retail. Removing the 1¢ stock bid lost 4.15 a run.\n\n**The change:** one condition in the \"ammo\" block, which buys YES to cover low asks. Its first branch bids one tick above the probability right after the probability drops below a tick. Any bid still above the probability after the move is taken in full by the arbitrageur, so it was buying stock at a sure loss. Adding `self.s != 3` to that `if` turns the branch off only in spread 3.\n\n| Runs | Gain a run | Std. error | Runs up / down |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| Even choosing seeds (used to pick) | +0.215 | 0.054 | — |\n| Odd choosing seeds (not used) | +0.324 | 0.070 | — |\n| Confirming seeds 90000–97999 | +0.284 | 0.042 | 299 / 83 |\n\n- **Trimmed:** without the 20 runs that differ most, the confirming gain is +0.254.\n- **Other spreads:** 300 runs each of spreads 1, 2 and 4 come out bit-identical to the start file.\n- **Speed:** 200 spread-3 runs in one process took 45.03 s against the start file's 44.99 s.\n\n**Rejected ideas:**\n- Removing the buy that bridges retail demand between ticks: −1.22.\n- Removing the 1¢ stock bid: −4.15.\n- Dropping the branch that bids up to 2¢ above the probability: −0.12. It saves 1.04 a run to the arbitrageur but loses 1.16 from retail.\n- Moving that same branch one tick under the probability: worse than my change alone.\n- Also dropping the branch that bids just under the probability: no better on the choosing half.\n\nThe suggestion for the next seat is in \"next\": learn each run's jump rate when sizing low asks, and size the above-probability stock buys by what the current ask actually needs.\n\nBoth files are written and parse as JSON: `result.json` is 28,083 bytes, and `sources.json` cites the simulator's `engine.py` and the start-file artifact. My working files are all in `.cache/`. The untracked dotfiles that `git status` lists in the repository root (`.bashrc`, `.claude/` and others) were not made by me, and I left them alone.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":956202,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":1022544},"inputTokens":42,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":19762,"runtime":"claude","turns":22,"wallClockMs":797443}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":36418,"hash":"4ef229906467a63c69aa29b5a09d4c0cb7fe172acd614d4978d480ac1956e15e","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a4-middle/result.json"},{"bytes":1617,"hash":"5c345ea39b22987b70474f4510e55c47476f0b6d8e8475b93ad1684a0fa12006","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a4-middle/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"90675b3128fe9096","findings":[],"hash":"9dfe23ed27daf6f36a2932f563016176f8cce73c9bd624fe1688ec910364c308","nodeId":"351f6396-eed3-4e0f-8cae-c8c2d3d28906","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/a4-middle/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/a4-middle/sources.json).\n\nAll four tested changes lost edge, so the result retains the original strategy. All 969 confirming pairs and 450 other-spread pairs matched. JSON, size, hash, timing, and source checks passed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":5982976,"inputTokens":68666,"model":null,"outputTokens":38172,"runtime":"codex","turns":25,"wallClockMs":2236497}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":23949,"hash":"e4273d4a3ec299290769056a905929037cf6827d403a4b30515ff619b6d0fc47","mediaType":"text/markdown","name":"report","path":"artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"9a29c101a23c14cc","findings":[],"hash":"a14d07a320f3cb28a6587bc23b1c8a74868726dff8e15f56720194ee64378aea","nodeId":"cb05287a-7a14-42bc-90f2-c01be3b5e90f","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [report.md](artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md): 28 item rows, per-spread recommendations, cited findings, and explicit evidence gaps.\n\nChecked table statistics and size: **23,949 bytes**, below the 24,000-byte limit. Left untracked as requested.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":480000,"inputTokens":49959,"model":null,"outputTokens":10829,"runtime":"codex","turns":4,"wallClockMs":304034}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":46789,"hash":"ef4b96b2d811a07bb2c6308f6b57fc5f3acf7dc9d337c9d7536e6dce982a73a7","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a3-jumps/result.json"},{"bytes":1703,"hash":"d2e8fbed87fe00ab8ad39abddf732b4f001a860104774eb516d0a7e0f55f4d10","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a3-jumps/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"7d2db8d9021f8063","findings":[],"hash":"a25460c9742f6241a0f59a57c1d23c3141f3310083c72a387d236f24339d1306","nodeId":"b95b6b22-7237-440b-8fc0-b6dc1d2751d4","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created both required JSON files.\n\nConfirming gain: **+$0.23124 per spread-3 run** across 2,020 runs, with zero failures. All 900 other-spread results matched exactly. Runtime and size checks passed; working files were removed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":4908348,"inputTokens":95345,"model":null,"outputTokens":34319,"runtime":"codex","turns":15,"wallClockMs":823662}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":38626,"hash":"15194b703c89bfe0b5d827be4cb4085dd96419fae397c520f7e065fd399489c2","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a3-stock/result.json"},{"bytes":1383,"hash":"31ff0451fa49577018d191c31515d45f03d36bb2e128e95f2524172a6ce32d59","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a3-stock/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"8cb9deeead5ce571","findings":[],"hash":"ae6efe11bbeb3f29e3bd5e43daaee1f778157dd605ffe5f284a28875776e9ddf","nodeId":"67b25cde-487b-4748-9240-123643f8f992","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/a3-stock/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/a3-stock/sources.json).\n\nConfirmation gain: **+0.470072 per spread-3 run** (SE 0.037322). All 450 other-spread comparisons were identical. Runtime was 2.7% faster. Temporary files removed; both outputs remain untracked.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":11583616,"inputTokens":96443,"model":null,"outputTokens":85898,"runtime":"codex","turns":52,"wallClockMs":4064239}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":12136,"hash":"779a7c829eeaddf1af1f3a13f9966a0704677a0bd74cb64ac24d9b1a5adacf3b","mediaType":"text/markdown","name":"merge","path":"artifacts/goal/merges/02/result.md"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"99b216f8773f1f55","findings":[],"hash":"b08e074d7640b4902e3c6007d9ed49741aecbb88ea479eead5a6168d32da3914","nodeId":"b1af2759-f362-489f-97cf-518104b6da84","outcome":"completed","summary":"Completed the merge in [result.md](/root/.identitymd/work/98effcfb-2b38-43b8-9f92-acea37880482/b1af2759-f362-489f-97cf-518104b6da84/artifacts/goal/merges/02/result.md).\n\nIt covers all eight items, preserves the measured gains and rejected approaches, flags the three failed source citations, and notes that combined-rule performance is unmeasured. The file is 12,136 bytes, within the 64,000-byte limit.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":439936,"inputTokens":115035,"model":null,"outputTokens":5106,"runtime":"codex","turns":3,"wallClockMs":118599}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":46854,"hash":"61d3ba0c42cd1e20117ad7e31d1b2c8aad12f63f5075d11cdd5af9d277213b66","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a1-jumps/result.json"},{"bytes":1459,"hash":"e3b562d5a307237f0ada0abe996ced5b4e26c1a2b5da5122a265f9eaf1d45f4f","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a1-jumps/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"41822d343cdb63ba","findings":[],"hash":"c5de8e9389e8dbad0bcc8fedfd1c22a8589e7c789e9532177909e488e7164ec8","nodeId":"8eb205a0-e6b9-4b48-8129-373af687ddab","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created `artifacts/goal/items/a1-jumps/result.json` and `sources.json`.\n\nConfirming gain: **+0.834 edge/run**, with zero failures. All **900 other-spread runs matched exactly**. Runtime increased **1.35%**, within budget.\n\nOutputs validated; scratch files removed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":5555510,"inputTokens":102641,"model":null,"outputTokens":40932,"runtime":"codex","turns":17,"wallClockMs":958852}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":27567,"hash":"165519ded198f623cc152bc5221cbdbb9462516f11edea9561e12793a4aa3751","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a3-middle/result.json"},{"bytes":1103,"hash":"cb9980906562752d04545b509379d26c8b9c8c3c50d76ccde593e87fad017752","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a3-middle/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"8d210756eb9ac4d7","findings":[],"hash":"c6e4a8b8e526d36635236c56c6610f66d6b0476b4fc1f2d7825217d6511753ae","nodeId":"694b2934-a080-4f6d-897e-c6033ee96ad8","outcome":"completed","summary":"Completed `a3-middle`.\n\n- Holdout gain: `+0.008104796187524691`\n- Standard error: `0.001626703251836854`\n- Trimmed gain: `+0.006554340916899945`\n- Arbitrage improvement: `+0.0315846190715841`\n- Other spreads: all 900 runs identical\n- Timing: `142.82s` vs baseline `145.98s`\n- Validation, hashes, compilation, sizes, and source quotes passed\n\nOutputs:\n\n- [result.json](/home/imdworker/.identitymd/work/98effcfb-2b38-43b8-9f92-acea37880482/694b2934-a080-4f6d-897e-c6033ee96ad8/artifacts/goal/items/a3-middle/result.json)\n- [sources.json](/home/imdworker/.identitymd/work/98effcfb-2b38-43b8-9f92-acea37880482/694b2934-a080-4f6d-897e-c6033ee96ad8/artifacts/goal/items/a3-middle/sources.json)","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":9709184,"inputTokens":82673,"model":"gpt-5.6-sol","outputTokens":27265,"runtime":"codex","turns":32,"wallClockMs":5313200}},{"artifacts":[],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"8ec0eeb0fd2a5504","findings":[],"hash":"c827fbc86badb9526fbfe3b390332dff037f6b25b188d37f8e74e6a3bfcec0ab","nodeId":"ee8c1ac4-cd0d-4f6f-bb92-494e7127ef5f","outcome":"failed","summary":"required outputs are missing or invalid:\nartifacts/goal/items/a4-stock/result.json: ENOENT: no such file or directory, lstat '/home/imd2/.identitymd/work/98effcfb-2b38-43b8-9f92-acea37880482/ee8c1ac4-cd0d-4f6f-bb92-494e7127ef5f/artifacts/goal/items/a4-stock/result.json'\nartifacts/goal/items/a4-stock/sources.json: ENOENT: no such file or directory, lstat '/home/imd2/.identitymd/work/98effcfb-2b38-43b8-9f92-acea37880482/ee8c1ac4-cd0d-4f6f-bb92-494e7127ef5f/artifacts/goal/items/a4-stock/sources.json'\n\nthe agent stopped (completed, 6 turns); its last message:\nI couldn’t repair the missing outputs because outbound requests from this machine are being reset. `git clone` failed with `Recv failure: Connection reset by peer`; requests to `api.imdnotdead.fun` failed the same way, and the web tool could not access the supplied strategy artifact. Without the simulator and start file, I can’t run or verify the required comparisons, so `result.json` and `sources.json` remain missing.","treeHash":null,"usage":{"cachedInputTokens":253952,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":10813},"inputTokens":58718,"model":"gpt-6-luna","outputTokens":4804,"runtime":"codex","turns":6,"wallClockMs":158437}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":32103,"hash":"4b7c42a59ba97cee9be15a189806519c17baf126f892d9c8ac5f0ff1cca50b8a","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a4-jumps/result.json"},{"bytes":393,"hash":"c5d194fbf77439c1c235fb7cc816b5017748c99add5e7b98495b92da0cb6f489","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a4-jumps/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"8f08088e7a7f557f","findings":[],"hash":"dfb5c33ca8a55a2cd9b5aa89033f2dbbb29cc4cd60ecdd2158b5095cbfe178c2","nodeId":"882df97a-924d-4e24-8750-07198187d850","outcome":"completed","summary":"No change held up, so the result returns the start file unchanged and `diff` is all zeros. Both output files are written and parse as JSON.\n\n**Scorer check:** I ran the earlier file on 600 runs and got a mean edge of 108.63974289615767, which matches its author exactly. That took 71 s, so I didn't halve any run counts.\n\n**Where the start file loses on spread 4** (2,050 runs, seeds 30000–37999): mean edge 156.00, with 180.20 from retail and 24.19 lost to the arbitrageur. Of that 24.19, 12.87 falls on steps that hold a jump. Per run, the biggest jump losses are:\n\n| Side and price band | Lost to jumps | Paid by retail on the same orders |\n|---|---|---|\n| Asks at 5–9 cents | 2.61 | 39.7 |\n| Asks at 10–29 cents | 2.03 | 19.1 |\n| Bids at 30–70 cents | 1.79 | 13.3 |\n| Asks at 3–4 cents | 1.66 | 59.2 |\n| Asks at 30–70 cents | 1.55 | 14.4 |\n\nIn every band, retail pays several times what jumps take.\n\n**What I tried** (each is variant minus start file, on the first 1,000 of those runs):\n\n| Change | Result per run (standard error) |\n|---|---|\n| Ask split in two, half one tick further | −7.29 (0.51) |\n| Bid split in two, half one tick further | −3.97 (0.34) |\n| Ask split, 20% one tick further | −1.37 (0.30) |\n| All asks ×0.85 | −0.60 (0.25) |\n| All bids ×0.85 | −0.39 (0.16) |\n| All bids ×1.15 | −0.21 (0.10) |\n| Bids and asks ×0.85 at 10–90 cents only | −0.21 (0.12) |\n| Jump-rate estimate from the rival's quote moves | −7.74 (0.59) |\n\n- **Splits:** on spread 4 the tick one further out is the rival's own ask, so the moved half waits behind its queue. That loses far more retail than it saves from the arbitrageur.\n- **Uniform cuts and raises:** both directions lose, so the start file's sizes are already at a peak.\n- **Jump-rate estimate:** the rival's quote moves more than a tick far more often than real jumps happen, so the estimate was badly off.\n\nTwo changes gained on the choosing runs but lost on the 1,050 I held back: asks ×1.15 below 10 cents (+0.42, then −0.40) and asks ×1.15 below 5 cents (+0.19, then −0.12). So I kept neither.\n\n**Confirming runs** (1,937 spread-4 seeds in 90000–97999): the start file scores 156.85624708351307, with 183.349 from retail, 26.493 lost to the arbitrageur, and 0 failures. The 900 runs on the other spreads gave identical results. 200 runs took 103.7 s for the start file and 103.1 s for mine, which is the same code.\n\nThe `next` field suggests that the next seat pull or reprice the front quote right after a detected jump rather than resizing it. It also suggests checking any change on held-back seeds before trusting it.\n\nThe result and sources files are in `artifacts/goal/items/a4-jumps/`. Git lists some dotfiles in the repository root as untracked, but they are the sandbox's empty placeholders, not anything I wrote. All my working files are under `.cache/`.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1340521,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":1216366},"inputTokens":50,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":23227,"runtime":"claude","turns":27,"wallClockMs":2597227}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":32028,"hash":"1d3fdd0207683d66c09de9f06c83f6cb8ea9f61f5e1f1143b22a9e740e8cc2e3","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a2-ledger/result.json"},{"bytes":1626,"hash":"3eb101ed25bd708db8030d3f86e512a6cf7636f328e9dc3cf54a1354599b79ed","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a2-ledger/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"8a38929b31c716ff","findings":[],"hash":"f5e7b81532c48993c24c92aca6bcb494f4e2d9b7adc21433b3cec22838913da0","nodeId":"dd06c5d5-eb2b-46d1-8072-8e2ac47ccf7c","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/a2-ledger/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/a2-ledger/sources.json).\n\nConfirmed gain: **+0.25054 edge/run** across 2,011 runs. All 900 other-spread results were identical. Runtime increased **1.76%**, within the limit. All checks passed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":11245056,"inputTokens":84376,"model":null,"outputTokens":36373,"runtime":"codex","turns":44,"wallClockMs":3009190}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":25253,"hash":"15990676e9113b7842723b1274a10a0c977b800be7ed51e0bfead0e9440c6131","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a2-rich/result.json"},{"bytes":14,"hash":"4e60a0deda7ee9d829904e581ebb31ee4b4a9ae1797281044a27ed0f698a9420","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/a2-rich/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"8b35536ee4821baa","findings":[],"hash":"ffe8d0b4fd2b4b130b053e8ea796ee6172ed079f97928b9c872d3e4d4ff18bf5","nodeId":"2a52f144-e792-4b4b-b86e-4a7253771f05","outcome":"completed","summary":"Implemented and validated the spread-2 rich-run strategy adjustment.\n\nOutputs:\n\n- [result.json]( /home/imd-worker/.identitymd/work/98effcfb-2b38-43b8-9f92-acea37880482/2a52f144-e792-4b4b-b86e-4a7253771f05/artifacts/goal/items/a2-rich/result.json)\n- [sources.json]( /home/imd-worker/.identitymd/work/98effcfb-2b38-43b8-9f92-acea37880482/2a52f144-e792-4b4b-b86e-4a7253771f05/artifacts/goal/items/a2-rich/sources.json)\n\nThe candidate improved holdout mean edge by `0.3079775524125`; JSON parsing and code-hash checks pass.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1627264,"inputTokens":71301,"model":"gpt-5.6-luna","outputTokens":11587,"runtime":"codex","turns":7,"wallClockMs":1134058}}],"verification":[{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"00c1742e8d01675e14b7f947aaed2cc3152c5cc48cb0844fb8c6d1cf116afc71","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+18543036"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"03da8436966b4427a920dce3132a21952cedbebc77dadb0fe2dcdd68af971a78","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+18543036"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"14787f497c10667a3fbebdba809da00c270540fe8c42bf29006bfbeca176822e","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+18543036"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; 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