{"assessments":[],"deployments":[],"fuzz":[],"identity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"interpretation":"Records acceptance and evidence. Neither completion nor an AI assessment establishes correctness, safety, or independent review.","jobId":"a2503a73-46fd-42f6-a185-7e1467acce55","kind":"skill:research-report","nodes":[{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"7e2692aa50f809831c1ce18c962e2fd6390c153abdce3d3b814c95f373174ff1","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network"],"skillHash":"3ddca93330036359dd721585e58e67820336a0398b7927b3c89369d6134f30f6","skillId":"research-report","tools":[]},"key":"research_report","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"3ddca93330036359dd721585e58e67820336a0398b7927b3c89369d6134f30f6","skillId":"research-report","state":"accepted"}],"objective":"Keel prediction-market analysis abd60a38-4d26-499e-8a93-53c6303679ef. Category: sports. Data taken 2026-10-17T19:48:51.025Z from Polymarket order books.\nTask: estimate the true probability of every market in the table, then rank the 3 to 8 best trades for a bankroll of 25 USD (pUSD): the sides whose true probability is furthest above their ask. People paid for this analysis: always return at least 3 trades with positive edge when the table has them, and say honestly when the edge is small.\nPrices are probabilities from 0 to 1. Columns: row|marketId|event|ends|question|outcome A/outcome B|A bid|A ask|B bid|B ask|last|24h volume $|liquidity $|$ at A ask+2c|min shares\nMarkets:\nm1|5787759|-|2026-10-17|Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Playof|Team Falcons/BetBoom Team|0.62|0.65|0.35|0.38|0.562|3002584|57373|3024|5\nm2|5791529|-|2026-10-18|LoL: MVK Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Worlds Play-In|MVK Esports/FURIA Esports|0.86|0.87|0.13|0.14|0.87|951082|242064|422971|5\nm3|5557832|-|2026-10-25|Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians|Tampa Bay Rays/Cleveland Guardians|0.5|0.51|0.49|0.5|0.51|396782|365153|253128|5\nm4|5533029|-|2026-10-24|West Indies Tour of India T20s: India vs West Indies|India/West Indies|0.5|0.51|0.49|0.5|0.5|394654|108632|79713|5\nm5|5817742|-|2026-10-17|Counter-Strike: NIP vs MIBR (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs|NIP/MIBR|0.301|0.302|0.698|0.699|0.537|304986|10397|1131|5\nm6|5760759|-|2026-10-18|Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5|Over/Under|0.5|0.51|0.49|0.5|0.51|219851|156124|27214|5\nm7|4329887|-|2026-10-18|Saints vs. Giants|Saints/Giants|0.5|0.51|0.49|0.5|0.51|182165|914767|729284|5\nm8|608565|-|2027-01-01|Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?|Yes/No|0.03|0.031|0.969|0.97|0.03|170599|188875|1990|5\nm9|5354642|-|2026-10-17|Spread: Notre Dame (-10.5)|Notre Dame/BYU|0.49|0.5|0.5|0.51|0.5|137920|188727|78296|5\nm10|5255063|-|2026-10-18|UFC Fight Night: Mike Malott vs. Joaquin Buckley (Welterweight, Main Card)|Mike Malott/Joaquin Buckley|0.54|0.55|0.45|0.46|0.55|103114|163898|73421|5\nm11|608545|-|2027-01-01|Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?|Yes/No|0.275|0.276|0.724|0.725|0.274|100394|115475|4850|5\nm12|608547|-|2027-01-01|Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?|Yes/No|0.646|0.647|0.353|0.354|0.649|96455|104931|12156|5\nm13|4761407|-|2026-10-17|Senators vs. Flyers|Senators/Flyers|0.59|0.6|0.4|0.41|0.6|92106|353186|136992|5\nm14|5308185|e2|2026-10-18|Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-10-18?|Yes/No|0.52|0.53|0.47|0.48|0.53|90212|166678|29016|5\nm15|4761442|-|2026-10-18|Penguins vs. Golden Knights|Penguins/Golden Knights|0.33|0.34|0.66|0.67|0.34|82728|239362|51865|5\nm16|5286639|e3|2026-10-17|Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-10-17?|Yes/No|0.57|0.58|0.42|0.43|0.58|76444|123683|36011|5\nm17|5311859|e4|2026-10-18|Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-18?|Yes/No|0.64|0.65|0.35|0.36|0.65|73973|389563|188279|5\nm18|4761417|-|2026-10-17|Sharks vs. Red Wings|Sharks/Red Wings|0.41|0.42|0.58|0.59|0.42|72276|374382|140151|5\nm19|5141816|-|2027-01-01|Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?|Mbappé/Yamal|0.53|0.55|0.45|0.47|0.54|69812|30313|1858|5\nm20|608540|-|2027-01-01|Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?|Yes/No|0.038|0.04|0.96|0.962|0.04|68621|138695|1625|5\nm21|4329888|-|2026-10-18|Panthers vs. Eagles|Panthers/Eagles|0.61|0.62|0.38|0.39|0.62|61609|606524|613498|5\nm22|4367271|-|2026-10-18|Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)|Chiefs/Chargers|0.67|0.68|0.32|0.33|0.68|59253|246575|259667|5\nm23|5354010|-|2026-10-17|Kent State vs. South Florida: O/U 45.5|Over/Under|0.53|0.54|0.46|0.47|0.54|53582|59396|23036|5\nm24|5791531|-|2026-10-18|Games Total: O/U 4.5|Over/Under|0.23|0.24|0.76|0.77|0.28|45188|49855|6986|5\nm25|4329891|-|2026-10-18|Chargers vs. Chiefs|Chargers/Chiefs|0.21|0.22|0.78|0.79|0.23|44993|761045|159560|5\nm26|4329883|-|2026-10-18|Bears vs. Falcons|Bears/Falcons|0.5|0.51|0.49|0.5|0.51|41926|1045982|357003|5\nm27|5791530|-|2026-10-18|Games Total: O/U 3.5|Over/Under|0.46|0.47|0.53|0.54|0.47|37685|35580|7683|5\nm28|4367438|-|2026-10-18|Titans vs. Colts: O/U 44.5|Over/Under|0.5|0.51|0.49|0.5|0.5|35245|348245|173427|5\nm29|5354511|-|2026-10-17|Oklahoma State vs. Houston|Oklahoma State/Houston|0.36|0.37|0.63|0.64|0.37|30992|331930|110781|5\nm30|5354535|-|2026-10-17|Spread: Houston (-4.5)|Houston/Oklahoma State|0.48|0.49|0.51|0.52|0.49|30804|276624|123692|5\nm31|5354004|-|2026-10-17|Spread: South Florida (-20.5)|South Florida/Kent State|0.51|0.52|0.48|0.49|0.52|30607|121520|48641|5\nm32|4329885|-|2026-10-18|Titans vs. Colts|Titans/Colts|0.25|0.26|0.74|0.75|0.26|29290|572655|140813|5\nm33|4367427|-|2026-10-18|Spread: Colts (-6.5)|Colts/Titans|0.51|0.52|0.48|0.49|0.53|28713|330105|179513|5\nm34|5354936|-|2026-10-18|Louisiana Tech vs. Louisiana-Monroe: O/U 55.5|Over/Under|0.51|0.52|0.48|0.49|0.52|28037|50520|28456|5\nm35|5128553|-|2026-10-18|Spread: Colts (-5.5)|Colts/Titans|0.55|0.56|0.44|0.45|-|25774|254788|135724|5\nm36|5354937|-|2026-10-18|Louisiana Tech vs. Louisiana-Monroe: O/U 57.5|Over/Under|0.44|0.45|0.55|0.56|0.45|24852|70170|30383|5\nm37|4367428|-|2026-10-18|Spread: Colts (-7.5)|Colts/Titans|0.43|0.44|0.56|0.57|0.44|24122|467064|159413|5\nm38|5353969|-|2026-10-17|Kent State vs. South Florida|Kent State/South Florida|0.08|0.09|0.91|0.92|0.09|22929|231991|15480|5\nm39|2772166|-|2027-05-30|Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?|Yes/No|0.15|0.16|0.84|0.85|0.16|22365|568537|49435|5\nm40|5354636|-|2026-10-17|Notre Dame vs. BYU|Notre Dame/BYU|0.78|0.79|0.21|0.22|0.79|22290|246760|180785|5\nm41|4367515|-|2026-10-18|Bears vs. Falcons: O/U 51.5|Over/Under|0.51|0.52|0.48|0.49|0.52|20669|186360|25430|5\nm42|2772177|-|2027-05-30|Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?|Yes/No|0.1|0.11|0.89|0.9|0.1|20514|249676|12639|5\nEvents (one winner among several markets):\ne2|Udinese Calcio vs. US Lecce|3 outcomes|YES asks sum 1.01|YES bids sum 0.98\ne3|New York Red Bulls vs. Toronto FC|3 outcomes|YES asks sum 1.02|YES bids sum 0.99\ne4|Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Crystal Palace FC|3 outcomes|YES asks sum 1.02|YES bids sum 0.99\nRules:\n- Use only markets from the table. marketId is the second column, copied exactly.\n- side YES buys outcome A at its ask; side NO buys outcome B at its ask.\n- Work through each market: what has to happen, how likely it is given current news, base rates, time left and related markets. Do not just repeat the market price.\n- scan: one entry per market in the table: fairYes = your probability (0-1) that outcome A wins; note = the key fact behind it (at most 100 characters).\n- recommendations: fairPrice = your probability that the side you buy wins (= fairYes for YES, 1 - fairYes for NO). estimatedEdge = fairPrice - ask of that side; only positive edges. Edge of 0.03 or more is a real mispricing; below that it is a lean, say so in the reasoning.\n- Look for: news or base rates the price ignores; related markets that contradict each other; multi-outcome events whose YES asks sum far from 1 (listed under Events).\n- recommendedShares: whole shares, cost = shares x ask. Size with quarter-Kelly (smaller for leans), at most 20% of the bankroll per market and 60% in total, never below the market's min shares.\n- confidence: low, medium or high. reasoning: 1-3 sentences, at most 400 characters, name the evidence and what would make the bet lose.\nOutput: write exactly one file, artifacts/recommendations.json, containing only this JSON (UTF-8, no comments, no markdown):\n{\"analysisId\":\"abd60a38-4d26-499e-8a93-53c6303679ef\",\"scan\":[{\"marketId\":\"123\",\"fairYes\":0.42,\"note\":\"key fact\"}],\"recommendations\":[{\"marketId\":\"123\",\"question\":\"copied from the table\",\"tokenId\":\"\",\"side\":\"YES\",\"fairPrice\":0.55,\"recommendedShares\":100,\"estimatedEdge\":0.12,\"confidence\":\"medium\",\"reasoning\":\"evidence and main risk\"}]}\nBest trade first. Leave tokenId empty: Keel fills it from its own snapshot.","parentJobId":null,"planHash":"413e4ae48b8de95afb8d9a8d3041c54ddbe8d3c12a44d00fdc1a3f7fbf5f300f","previousHash":"6f5785613f8a948cf47e5b198ff731a902b93b148daa93267462ba87b50d9fed","projectId":"a2503a73-46fd-42f6-a185-7e1467acce55","publication":{"commit":"c09d5b63a7cb3b85d59151c0704b398519997cb6","deliveredAt":"2026-10-17T19:55:02.965Z","repoUrl":"https://github.com/Identity-md/research/blob/main/jobs/a2503a73-46fd-42f6-a185-7e1467acce55/_identitymd/README.md"},"receiptIdentity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"registry":"0xb6d0a187b050fa5bb0b87033a203f37becf4a775","research":[],"schema":"identitymd-work-v1","signals":[],"site":null,"snapshotHash":"228e1c11a9e08dcd9fcf9c641c8985ac8d6bed767288e1aac7033b2a96bf435e","state":"completed","submissions":[{"artifacts":[{"bytes":8928,"hash":"fe756cb06a4325a64e0d6acb258b7bc512dc9f606909b9e2b49609d4f2210b5c","mediaType":"application/json","name":"recommendations","path":"artifacts/recommendations.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"3d55f5b0ed8fa3df","findings":[],"hash":"7e2692aa50f809831c1ce18c962e2fd6390c153abdce3d3b814c95f373174ff1","nodeId":"26d668dc-6c3f-4fc1-a44b-9694dea6bc29","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [artifacts/recommendations.json](artifacts/recommendations.json) with 42 market estimates and 3 ranked trades totaling $11.02.\n\nValidated structure, edges, share minimums, and sizing. The report flags live-score timing, inferred event linkage, and correlated exposure.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1400064,"inputTokens":122043,"model":null,"outputTokens":9431,"runtime":"codex","turns":4,"wallClockMs":204696}}],"verification":[{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"7e2692aa50f809831c1ce18c962e2fd6390c153abdce3d3b814c95f373174ff1","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+c3fba9eb"}]}