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this network from 3rd to 1st on Paradigm's Prediction Market challenge, one kind of market at a time.\n\nThe challenge (https://www.paradigm.xyz/puzzles/prediction-market-challenge): a Python class quotes passive limit orders on one simulated binary market and is scored by its mean edge over 200 simulations. Simulator and rules: https://github.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge (docs/orderbook_prediction_market_challenge.md).\n\nWhere it stands on 2026-11-06: 3rd of 186 at 106.80 (129.22 from retail, 22.42 lost to the arbitrageur). First is 109.59 (130.77, 21.18), second 109.43 (127.73, 18.31).\n\nThe base is this network's best file, a public JSON file whose \"code\" is the strategy: https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/41fa8829432f502a00c5302c0e2200b475c5c2e100a2a16b086aaab0ce62a395\nIt reads the rival market maker's spread at the first step as self.s, 1 to 4 ticks; a quarter of all runs have each value. On unseen runs it earns about 35, 84, 123 and 154 a run at spreads 1, 2, 3 and 4.\n\nHow this round works. Every seat has one spread and changes the base only in runs of that spread: whatever it adds does nothing unless self.s is its spread, so runs of the other three spreads come out the same, run by run. A run has one spread, so gains found in different spreads add up exactly, and the best file for each spread is stacked into one. The network's operator enters files on Paradigm by hand: nothing is entered from a task, so do not look for a key.\n\nWhat earlier seats measured, so nobody repeats it:\n- Nearly all edge is made selling YES to retail buyers while the true probability is under 5 cents: a retail buy spends dollars at the lowest ask, so it takes many shares there. Runs that settle NO earn about 173, runs that settle YES about 18.\n- Under 1 cent the rival's lowest ask sits at tick 1 + spread. YES bought at tick 1 and sold at tick a nets a - 1 ticks a share, whatever the probability is.\n- A rival order that is used up comes back on the other side, spread ticks away, with a new place in the queue. An order of ours that was there first stays ahead of it.\n- Worth little alone: a perfect estimate of the true probability (1.9), each run's retail rate and order size (1.05), each run's jump rate and size (0.3), re-tuning the sizing constants one at a time (0.59 over all four spreads).\n- Jumps cannot be predicted. Knowing the next step's jump would be worth 8.8.\n- Ceilings, measured by cheating: retail the rival fills because our size ran out, 49 a run. Losses on YES bought at 5 cents or less, 10.6 a run; a plain cap on that stock lost 7.3. Unlimited depth at our best price under 5 cents, 6.1, of which 0.2 survives the arbitrageur with today's sizing.\n\nA file is a candidate if it gains on unseen runs of its spread, has no failed simulation, leaves the other spreads identical, and is no slower than the base.","parentJobId":null,"planHash":"724e06dbfeb7a97caab3767aa0a8e4903e32c1a8b3c3009e47248a1ec7c5d10b","previousHash":"0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000","projectId":"60db2ed4-b6d7-4453-8209-27e9beea0614","publication":{"commit":null,"deliveredAt":null,"repoUrl":null},"receiptIdentity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"registry":"0xb6d0a187b050fa5bb0b87033a203f37becf4a775","research":[],"schema":"identitymd-work-v1","signals":[],"site":null,"snapshotHash":"1721dc99eb1c8751b3acff0fbeccba7f5bd48040b5b5afd0a9e208f9fe2ae529","state":"completed","submissions":[{"artifacts":[{"bytes":18028,"hash":"25757f5ed3de8ddd95e2795ce19f6c45a7ff83aacc4d7791128da61d3369a620","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s3-middle/result.json"},{"bytes":15,"hash":"73608e3346e331760ac29f17144976922e84678fed8a2eb7cc66f6ef0e89a33c","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s3-middle/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"7244e856c10de20a","findings":[],"hash":"033f8e099579f72518c82e6866c436271f36ac3f22c942712b1b4a1d623788fb","nodeId":"417cfe14-6dfa-470d-b77a-c7064b60fa39","outcome":"completed","summary":"I found nothing that gains in spread 3 between 5 and 95 cents, so the result returns the base strategy unchanged with `diff.mean` 0. The result file is written to `artifacts/goal/items/s3-middle/result.json` (18 KB, parses as JSON). Several steps of the brief were cut short because this machine has one CPU core (its cgroup quota is one CPU, although `nproc` shows 16). Each run takes about 0.8 s whatever the worker count.\n\n**What was measured:**\n- **Base on unseen runs:** over all 2035 unseen spread-3 runs (seeds 60000–67999), mean edge is 118.8167. That is 149.0582 from retail and −30.2416 lost to the arbitrageur, with 0 failures.\n- **Two tuning variants:** I tried quoting less or more between 5 and 95 cents, only when the spread is 3, by changing a sizing constant from its base 0.7. Each was compared run by run against the base on the first 200 spread-3 tuning seeds:\n  - at 0.45, it lost 1.208 a run (standard error 0.580);\n  - at 1.0, it lost 0.071 a run (standard error 0.427).\n\n  Neither gained, so nothing was kept.\n- **Timing:** 200 runs in one process took 161.3 s. The file is identical to the base, so I timed it once and gave the same figure for both.\n\n**What was not done:**\n- **Step 1 (scorer check):** the 4000-run check timed out at 10 minutes and would have needed about 53. `base_mean_edge` is left `null` rather than filled with a guess, so I can't confirm the author's 98.469.\n- **Step 3 (loss by time left):** I didn't break down earnings and arbitrageur losses by time left.\n- **Other spreads:** I didn't run them. The code is byte-identical to the base, so their results are the same by construction. The file says this, with `others_identical.runs` set to 0.\n- **Tuning:** I used only 200 of the 1954 tuning seeds and had no time to confirm on a second part of them.\n\nThe `next` field suggests a rule based on time left: shrink or stop middle quotes when few steps remain, since both directions of the flat sizing change lost. `sources.json` is `{\"sources\": []}` because I relied only on the simulator and the base file.\n\nSeparately, `git status` lists files in the repository root that I didn't create (`.bashrc`, `.gitmodules`, `.claude/` and others). I left them alone.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":577937,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":500641},"inputTokens":38,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":8157,"runtime":"claude","turns":21,"wallClockMs":3893213}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":55095,"hash":"c80c33382f9c458ab6286dbc11fa761100a7e156dad7f3c12d74040b7c76578f","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s4-flow/result.json"},{"bytes":1425,"hash":"979cb8bff78ad9326955f76377bcdf805b2cbd6b87f1789b732bcc6afe0220ad","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s4-flow/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"60f85cbc35c28a7e","findings":[],"hash":"079f8726459cee617c50d7880695fd95de4eda212a38690c4f3c282f312c7e22","nodeId":"7ab87da3-9767-4d8a-8954-9e4105ae2cca","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/s4-flow/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/s4-flow/sources.json).\n\nUnseen gain: **+1.1441 ± 0.3398 SE** across 2,009 runs. Zero failures, 900 identical other-spread results, and slightly faster timing. Files validated and left untracked; scratch files removed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":11096832,"inputTokens":92243,"model":null,"outputTokens":110749,"runtime":"codex","turns":39,"wallClockMs":6477447}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":21733,"hash":"fe05e8ece05ab31a60568ef95ebbd9f4e2fc9f7b74235594d8d89fd33c1cde92","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s2-queue/result.json"},{"bytes":584,"hash":"8967cc5a1da05e5136fbc9bfa9b88d2fff990ec39e098a763d2c1e8f11160711","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s2-queue/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"6f30d6341cbff249","findings":[],"hash":"086514f8e40dfe4f804f02fc63f2548b4a28ae309df430579b67b45d0dda09e6","nodeId":"b0fc5dea-2222-4e87-8b44-fc4636175eaa","outcome":"completed","summary":"I finished item s2-queue and wrote both files, but this may not count as a candidate. The gain on unseen spread-2 runs is positive but under 2 standard errors, and the file measured about 1% slower than the base.\n\n**Scorer check:** my base mean edge is `98.4694596619638`, exactly the author's figure. I ran it with `--workers 5` rather than 4 to fit the 10-minute command limit. The worker count doesn't change the result.\n\n**What changed (spread 2 only):**\n- **Hold threshold:** the quote stays at the rival's tick only while at least $4 of the front order remains (400/tick shares). The old threshold was 2 shares. Below $4, the quote moves back inside.\n- **Remainder kept:** the small leftover order is no longer cancelled. It stays ahead of the rival at that tick to catch large retail orders.\n- **No resize under 10 cents:** a front order is not cancelled just because the one-step size shrank, since that would hand its place to the rival.\n\n**Results on 1987 unseen spread-2 runs:**\n\n| | Base | Mine | Difference |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| Mean edge | 75.379 | 75.864 | **+0.485** (standard error 0.347) |\n| Retail edge | 102.415 | 104.016 | +1.601 |\n| Arbitrageur edge | -27.036 | -28.152 | -1.116 |\n\n- **Gain:** the gain is small against the noise, and a few big-jump runs dominate it; the worst single run lost 608.8. Dropping the 20 highest and 20 lowest differences gives +0.754, and 1262 runs gained while 722 lost.\n- **Tuning check:** the half of the tuning seeds used to find the change gained +1.766 (standard error 0.436). The half kept back gained +0.324 (0.477), which is positive but also not significant.\n- **Failures:** none on the unseen runs.\n- **Other spreads:** all 900 runs (300 each of spreads 1, 3 and 4) matched the base exactly in every result field.\n\n**Speed:** over 200 spread-2 runs in one process, the base took 71.89 s and mine 72.65 s. I didn't try to shave this, because any edit would have meant re-freezing and re-scoring the code with little time left. The result file states the shortfall.\n\n**What didn't work:**\n- Keeping fronts the rival has moved past lost money, from -0.25 to -2.1 depending on the variant, because the arbitrageur takes them on the way back.\n- Oversizing orders just before p crosses the rival's bid added nothing once I corrected its guard.\n- A version with four times the size at tick 2 had a higher average, but all of that comes from the last 300 steps and it took losses of up to -531 from late jumps. I rejected it for that tail risk, and the `next` field suggests retesting it with end-of-run size scaling.\n\nI checked all three source quotes against their URLs and they matched. My tuning runs used equivalent speedups of two simulator functions, and all reported unseen scores come from the unmodified simulator.\n\nFiles are in `artifacts/goal/items/s2-queue/`:\n- `result.json`\n- `sources.json`","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":2322467,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":2463905},"inputTokens":52,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":54563,"runtime":"claude","turns":30,"wallClockMs":5931638}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":48756,"hash":"90459c5fffa37760b92c6a3ee93523240927484a7c8fa36b5d12b55a37c08733","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s2-stock/result.json"},{"bytes":2632,"hash":"fc7f24e45ed6849dc4b877224cdc5294b2fc61cb8b428f6832d363373904fccc","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s2-stock/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"4f869706aca73507","findings":[],"hash":"16296b9b905efb93f9e4e8829f95e8fc157159ed2f87014bb9de1c620e735c94","nodeId":"695ad672-40dc-4909-b28c-030f5496a22e","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/s2-stock/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/s2-stock/sources.json).\n\nUnseen gain: **+0.6075141093718673**, with zero failures. All 900 other-spread results matched exactly, and the revised code passed the speed check. Temporary files were removed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":18618368,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":5742638},"inputTokens":181437,"model":"gpt-6.1-sol","outputTokens":165609,"runtime":"codex","turns":47,"wallClockMs":6783725}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":21605,"hash":"35fc5110c9fc438b712b0e86bd37ddd65ea3c79170484c5ff8301933e4f23fca","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s3-free/result.json"},{"bytes":1099,"hash":"e5cb834841ca280151cdd76b2ce3fcc27c0f9693c681597e5fa6a4e72bfbee09","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s3-free/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"72b617d4b615473a","findings":[],"hash":"18742e80b59f129b30913171625bf3de0099a7989c0f0688c3c0e1cef00ca02e","nodeId":"01d36e52-fdb7-4b23-a1a4-58933e193cc9","outcome":"completed","summary":"The spread-3 file gains **+0.946 a run on the 2,035 unseen spread-3 seeds** (standard error 0.207), with no failed simulation and the other spreads identical. It does not strictly pass the no-slower test: on the 200-run timing it measured 0.54% slower than the base.\n\n**What the base got wrong:** at spread 3 it stays at the rival's best ask whenever it still holds 2 shares of queue priority there. While it stays it adds nothing and quotes no lower ask, so under 5 cents a retail buy takes almost nothing from that remainder and the rival fills the rest.\n\n**The fix** is one rule, active only when `self.s == 3`. For asks at tick 8 or lower, priority is kept only while the remainder is worth at least $10 at its price; below that it undercuts by one tick with its full covered size.\n\n| Check | Result |\n|---|---|\n| Scorer check, seeds 4000–7999 | 98.4694596619638, exactly the author's figure |\n| Spread-3 seeds | 1,954 tuning, 2,035 unseen |\n| Base on unseen | 118.8167 (retail 149.0582, arb −30.2416) |\n| Candidate on unseen | 119.7631 (retail 149.9921, arb −30.2290), 0 failures |\n| Difference, run by run | +0.9464 (retail +0.9338, arb +0.0126) |\n| Tuning half used to find it | +1.042 (se 0.427) on 480 runs |\n| Tuning half held out | +1.275 (se 0.249) on 480 runs |\n| Other spreads, 300 runs each of 1, 2, 4 | all 900 identical in every result field |\n| Timing, 200 runs each, one process, idle | base 106.24 s, candidate 106.81 s |\n\nThings you should know before stacking it:\n\n- **Speed:** a separate timing of 60 spread-3 seeds, the only runs where the files differ, had the candidate slightly faster (34.78 s against 34.92 s). I read both differences as noise, but the 200-run number is the one the rule names.\n- **Scorer check method:** the single CLI command for 4,000 runs did not finish inside this machine's 10-minute command limit (I tried it with `--workers 8`). I ran each seed the way `run_batch` does through my own harness instead.\n- **Tuning coverage:** the base ran on all 1,954 tuning seeds; variants ran on 960 of them.\n- **After the freeze:** I tested two extensions on tuning seeds only (ticks ≤ 12, and a $15 threshold). Neither was adopted, so the scored code is the frozen code.\n\nOther ideas tried and dropped, with their numbers, are in `tried`: the same threshold on bids and all prices lost 2.03, uncovered asks from 5 cents gained nothing, and faster restocking under 1 cent gained nothing.\n\nAll five sources were re-fetched and their quotes found at the live URLs.\n\nFiles are in `artifacts/goal/items/s3-free/`:\n- result.json\n- sources.json","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":2163063,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":8103549},"inputTokens":41,"model":"claude-fable-5-1","outputTokens":87673,"runtime":"claude","turns":24,"wallClockMs":5132690}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":17816,"hash":"ffcd894bdd1250261a88ff2eb8236337d95ee2b47ed1fa9d0ee6f9ace930d542","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s1-asks/result.json"},{"bytes":15,"hash":"73608e3346e331760ac29f17144976922e84678fed8a2eb7cc66f6ef0e89a33c","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s1-asks/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"7236faf97e42979a","findings":[],"hash":"1ca93ef9982e9e08d4a554df0ed4dab53b3a6196c4b96e84d33ad097e2b71dd3","nodeId":"7e836c16-65a5-4cdf-afed-fa13675bc19e","outcome":"completed","summary":"I found no gain for spread 1, so `result.json` returns the base's code unchanged with a diff of 0. The 4000-run scorer check also wasn't done.\n\n- **Scorer check (step 1):** not done. The simulator takes about 37 seconds per simulation here, so 4000 runs would take hours. `base_mean_edge` is `null`, and I did not reproduce the author's 98.47.\n- **Tick-1 ask variants tried:** the base's ask-size risk term for spread 1, on 16 tuning runs picked for long stretches under 5 cents:\n  - Smaller size (loss scaled 2.5×): −0.82 a run.\n  - A higher cap (3000 to 9000 shares, loss scaled 0.4×): −2.18.\n  - Larger size (loss scaled 0.4×): +0.22. Only 4 of the 16 runs changed, 2 up and 2 down, so I treated it as noise and kept nothing.\n- **What the diagnostics showed:** at spread 1, when the best ask is at tick 1, our fill is often limited by queue priority, not our size. Several misses had our ask at the 3000-share cap, or a rival order already resting ahead of ours at tick 1. A few misses were large retail buys of $30 or more arriving when we had no ask.\n- **Unseen score:** the base scored 31.85 on the first 16 unseen spread-1 seeds, made up of 47.76 from retail and −15.91 from the arbitrageur. That is a small sample, so the figure is rough. Time for those 16 runs was 70.6 seconds, and I reused it for both \"yours\" and \"base\" since the code is the same.\n- **Other spreads:** I did not run the 900-run check. The `others_identical` field says identical because the code is unchanged, not because I measured it.\n- **Holdout:** I did not run a separate one; `holdout` repeats the unseen figures.\n- **Seed screening:** I screened spread-1 seeds by the latent process alone. About half have any steps under 5 cents.\n\nI left `sources.json` empty because I relied on no external pages; the setup material came from the base JSON and the cloned simulator. All working files are in `.cache/`.\n\nFiles are in `artifacts/goal/items/s1-asks/`:\n- `result.json`\n- `sources.json`","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":886426,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":484831},"inputTokens":44,"model":"claude-sonnet-5-5","outputTokens":17850,"runtime":"claude","turns":23,"wallClockMs":1955617}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":52758,"hash":"62e216da85968f7800ef3df52161ec0fcd747b7038aaa4d34dc4f463b5618198","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s3-clock/result.json"},{"bytes":2726,"hash":"85985cfbef0e0a798fbb88e6f9ad9dba5dadc77abde395709781c7e6c66fe2a2","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s3-clock/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"729f8e34b40e405d","findings":[],"hash":"1d80236623fbdf08a76717afd69b8e4f83a7c57b709dad9e2c0399525165b2c2","nodeId":"f7348af7-deb1-4cda-8029-7756e3ca5f2e","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/s3-clock/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/s3-clock/sources.json).\n\nUnseen gain: **+0.2584 edge/run** (SE 0.0672). Zero failures, all 900 other-spread runs identical, and measured runtime faster than the base.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":17760640,"inputTokens":246822,"model":null,"outputTokens":87558,"runtime":"codex","turns":59,"wallClockMs":5933562}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":19272,"hash":"c8288b4af29e8f178adf9a933a9303c7f4fa5f97187d604d54bf1071e72ae872","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s4-middle/result.json"},{"bytes":1120,"hash":"0e4a93ce29afeb4f6434a6fc840d2e3a769760a588e14edd78181489917a1138","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s4-middle/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"74a99f640688d37b","findings":[],"hash":"30dd099b386e0e07335b9174133f0189a0f341e749657270c51657bb661bd457","nodeId":"e5a2006e-bc67-4da4-aa03-df8dc11e32a1","outcome":"completed","summary":"I wrote the result and sources files. The change gains a little on unseen spread-4 runs (+0.258 a run, SE 0.136). The other spreads come out identical, but the file is about 0.3% slower than the base, which the brief's \"no slower than the base\" rule doesn't allow.\n\n**Scorer:** the base scored 98.4694596619638 over 4000 runs from seed 4000, exactly what its author measured (Python 3.12.3).\n\n**The change:** one setting, active only at spread 4 when our estimate of the probability is between 5 and 95 cents. When sizing an ask there, the expected loss to the arbitrageur is multiplied by 1.4, so it counts at about full weight instead of the base's 0.7. Bids and all other prices are unchanged.\n\n- **Why:** on the tuning runs, mid-range asks lost 12.7 a run to the arbitrageur, against 6.2 for mid-range bids. In the last 250 steps they lost more than they earned from retail.\n- **Rival's refills:** the rival refills a used-up order 4 ticks away on the other side. After a move, its quote on that side sits right next to the probability, so only the far side is worth quoting.\n\n| Spread 4 | Runs | Base | Mine | Difference (paired) |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n| Tuning (8000–15999) | 2043 | 148.0617 | 148.4307 | +0.369 (SE 0.250; both halves positive) |\n| Unseen (60000–67999) | 2009 | 163.4781 | 163.7360 | **+0.258 (SE 0.136)**: retail −1.62, arbitrageur +1.87 |\n\n- **No failed simulations** in any run.\n- **Other spreads:** 300 runs each of spreads 1, 2 and 3 from seed 60000 gave exactly the same result, run by run (900 of 900).\n- **Speed:** 200 runs in one process took 46.45 s against the base's 46.31 s, measured twice with the order swapped. The cost is the two comparisons the change adds each step. It's well within machine noise, but strictly it breaks the speed rule.\n\n**Weak points:** the gain is under two standard errors. Every size setting I tried sits on a flat plateau of about +0.3. That includes other weights, bid-side changes, and weighting or stopping asks only near the end; the `tried` list in the result has each one's numbers. For the next seat I suggested pre-placing orders at the ticks where the rival will refill, to win queue priority one tick wider.\n\nAll working files are in `.cache/`, and only the two output files are written. `git status` also lists some untracked dotfiles at the repository root (`.bashrc`, `.claude/`, `.gitmodules` and others). I didn't create them and left them alone.\n\nFiles are in `artifacts/goal/items/s4-middle/`:\n- result.json\n- sources.json","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":996762,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":1099197},"inputTokens":46,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":23721,"runtime":"claude","turns":25,"wallClockMs":1362676}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":28579,"hash":"6c98aea3a2ae09a046b6d26f565731b6fdbd2c9fa375437c7fb5a8bb293dd412","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s4-queue/result.json"},{"bytes":2692,"hash":"9573cc82a7c4182e03a4312bca74cf9ae2c515dd6d19a3f4ad84e88316454a3b","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s4-queue/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"74f6c6912a376f27","findings":[],"hash":"34c3fc7785244ac73521b84b0f9fda2d1956f51945eff4155bea33984bb3097a","nodeId":"00295901-f9e5-4975-8832-a0579100a1c9","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/s4-queue/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/s4-queue/sources.json).\n\nUnseen spread-4 gain: **+0.2776021472854653** across 2,009 runs. Zero failures; all 900 other-spread results identical. Runtime, JSON, size, and hash checks passed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":12433280,"inputTokens":103274,"model":null,"outputTokens":91099,"runtime":"codex","turns":30,"wallClockMs":4343662}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":1567,"hash":"5bd722044ec96929cf4d08c55f6c887f73f8e92694a519959d61d32ab47f8909","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s3-stock/result.json"},{"bytes":20,"hash":"6c3b9f0390341dfd18635526c002291b374ba88078d4f87034c71c820e21474e","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s3-stock/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"720122d0ca9f60ca","findings":[],"hash":"360794da2d972a6d0d5bd3e8de119706c825e517a3e34597dbe63ff20ad8dcaf","nodeId":"300dea0e-7cad-4351-927c-de498ea0a740","outcome":"completed","summary":"Blocked: `python3 --version` returned exit 127, “command not found”; no alternative interpreter was found. Per the brief, I stopped without running simulations.\n\nCreated valid JSON files: [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/s3-stock/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/s3-stock/sources.json). Unmeasured results are null.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":39168,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":56862},"inputTokens":13549,"model":"gpt-6.1-sol","outputTokens":2193,"runtime":"codex","turns":3,"wallClockMs":74812}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":21815,"hash":"e8f8076807e593444e0e7c748a9c0b966ba6ac1348941f7094407fcf245936a3","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s2-free/result.json"},{"bytes":828,"hash":"7f54c5618184e69b21494fbc947ba610f706b21453637820a125350262853110","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s2-free/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"7143d892ed24d728","findings":[],"hash":"3ef4aff69f8359c4bf7cf133cd884ef6c3f7cc88e7f3f7a0835057e1a9f15589","nodeId":"76dc6247-d5fc-4aae-983c-fb393161d019","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/s2-free/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/s2-free/sources.json).\n\nSpread-2 unseen gain: **+0.6075141093718673 edge**. Zero failures; all 900 other-spread runs identical; runtime check passed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":14659072,"inputTokens":100910,"model":null,"outputTokens":112934,"runtime":"codex","turns":41,"wallClockMs":5905257}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":17649,"hash":"c524922fab9d3ec0d1d9aca4f217ee89eb8c5cb3dec53ee3d56ad3519db03f52","mediaType":"text/markdown","name":"report","path":"artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"75b4fcc4e4ca5d9b","findings":[],"hash":"3ff298dbfa1452170ca6f6be6c84dfdb55533eb7c555fa1174fc0ea0b658c93a","nodeId":"41f79ac7-fdca-4d9b-a45e-eb899f8cac5a","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [report.md](artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md) with all 32 items, source references, spread winners, caveats, and next experiments.\n\nThe calculated stack gain is **+1.615075** overall. Checked the table structure and file size: **17,649 bytes**, within the 24,000-byte limit.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":110976,"inputTokens":15231,"model":null,"outputTokens":6249,"runtime":"codex","turns":3,"wallClockMs":149849}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":19789,"hash":"9cff8842bd7d225500799ce5ad8289e5ace7fc7656a6195032516f290d978d8f","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s4-asks/result.json"},{"bytes":760,"hash":"3561f619a927ba6605758b11948994aec73d7b1f13b9899d6bd921418113f439","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s4-asks/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"733f63ff9321d57a","findings":[],"hash":"469ea0f22b3d28b8331a12b19ad4c55086dc865f4c483fda59df9ec12c6bf2dc","nodeId":"f22d3098-dd49-4103-bbe8-623e3c397c33","outcome":"completed","summary":"I found a small gain at spread 4 for asks under 5 cents. On the 2009 unseen spread-4 runs it adds **+0.330 a run (standard error 0.077)**. The other three spreads come out identical, and nothing failed.\n\n**Scorer check:** the base scored 98.4694596619638 on 4000 runs from seed 4000 with 4 workers, exactly the author's number. Python is 3.12.3.\n\n**The change:** one condition, active only when `self.s == 4` and the estimated probability is under 5 cents. The base keeps our ask at the rival's lowest ask tick while we still have at least 2 shares queued ahead of the rival there. I raised that minimum to 50 shares, about $2.50 at 5 cents and less than a typical retail buy. With only a few shares left, the next buy took them and the rest went to the rival's order at the same price. Now we drop one tick below the rival sooner and fill the whole buy. I picked 50 on one half of the tuning seeds (+0.34 ± 0.07) and confirmed it on the other half (+0.15 ± 0.28).\n\n**What I measured first** (600 spread-4 tuning runs, base strategy):\n- Retail buy money arriving under 5 cents is about 125 a run, and the base fills about 120 of it.\n- Of the 5.3 missed, 2.7 is lost in exactly the case above.\n- The arbitrageur takes 5.4 a run from our asks while the price is under 5 cents.\n\n**Things that didn't work:**\n- **Bigger or smaller ask size:** ×0.6 lost 1.0 and ×1.5 lost 1.6, so the base's sizing is already about right.\n- **Adding stock at tick 5 so more of it sits ahead of the rival:** lost 0.3 to 2.0. Retail fills didn't change and the extra stock was lost to price jumps.\n- **Keeping the small leftover at the rival's tick as extra depth:** no gain.\n\n**Final checks:**\n\n| | Base | Mine |\n|---|---|---|\n| Unseen mean edge | 163.4781 | 163.8080 |\n| From retail | 191.2076 | 191.6349 |\n| Lost to arbitrageur | −27.7295 | −27.8269 |\n| 200 runs in one process (seconds) | 39.87 | 39.79 |\n\nAll 900 runs of the other spreads (300 each, from seed 60000) match the base run for run.\n\nSingle runs can swing by hundreds after any change, so differences need 2000 or more paired runs to measure. Moving the ask a tick at this spread is worth at most about 1.6 a run, which is in the result's suggestions for the next seat.\n\nThe result's sources quote the simulator's `market.py` and `runner.py` and the base artifact; I checked that each quote appears at its URL. Some dotfiles and folders I didn't create (`.bashrc`, `.claude/`, `.vscode` and others) show up as untracked in the repo root; I left them alone.\n\nFiles are in `artifacts/goal/items/s4-asks/`:\n- result.json\n- sources.json","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1157803,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":1331812},"inputTokens":41,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":28429,"runtime":"claude","turns":25,"wallClockMs":1343070}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":49746,"hash":"0aaa715053d0359021db106a3a1ad0fa0910d6ba84661a51f92a2d8621e785d1","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s1-middle/result.json"},{"bytes":658,"hash":"817e0ac2f151f29a479a307b227d6d8656f8ee317799efffedba419a4f566333","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s1-middle/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"6de2de551e41049f","findings":[],"hash":"5c4b7d971fc71a6e4da1a618503d84d0711d89c053c50b158eab31e6b0029c6a","nodeId":"774c3c2b-c201-45be-95d5-d984481c3e09","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/s1-middle/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/s1-middle/sources.json).\n\nUnseen gain: **+0.06833408135627202** edge/run. Zero failures, 900 other-spread runs identical, and faster runtime. The small reference-score mismatch is documented.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":15601664,"inputTokens":95297,"model":null,"outputTokens":93938,"runtime":"codex","turns":56,"wallClockMs":6585299}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":17522,"hash":"327f587f6ebbc9728dabba3e4a1d4bd2fb74f925ff282da946bc324b08becf5a","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s4-clock/result.json"},{"bytes":162,"hash":"0e66b6974ef28b98e9eabffbb26d832000fcf6324b64516e067ad34ad5f4b348","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s4-clock/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"7514f9ace2688f4d","findings":[],"hash":"6ee7623b5567ab673688038c32badf2a12c96a51afa8a8d7bf61ab6db68f3476","nodeId":"aabf06dd-e899-4b2e-b27d-5077c170b7b4","outcome":"completed","summary":"Completed the required artifacts:\n\n- [result.json](/home/imd-worker-1135/.identitymd/work/60db2ed4-b6d7-4453-8209-27e9beea0614/aabf06dd-e899-4b2e-b27d-5077c170b7b4/artifacts/goal/items/s4-clock/result.json)\n- [sources.json](/home/imd-worker-1135/.identitymd/work/60db2ed4-b6d7-4453-8209-27e9beea0614/aabf06dd-e899-4b2e-b27d-5077c170b7b4/artifacts/goal/items/s4-clock/sources.json)\n\nThe time-based variants failed independent tuning validation, so the frozen strategy retains the base code. Spread-4 unseen score: 163.47813945343543, with zero failures.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":6611456,"inputTokens":148914,"model":null,"outputTokens":22284,"runtime":"codex","turns":31,"wallClockMs":3984469}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":49956,"hash":"fd192907bb39be5e9d26dbf8ad412debf5daf96c7f64b09241e325cd49de0593","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s1-bids/result.json"},{"bytes":1702,"hash":"4a8ac0b9cf9ca68a5362018e7911a20020d4b38479ea762e14817888222ba35f","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s1-bids/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"6db8ba5d9cbf2cb0","findings":[],"hash":"728fb3c42ba0d874fae1149a23828cc4b3942e913093d3949488ec6f3fa87c98","nodeId":"00e54454-507b-4263-be68-5a7a5ff5ff3d","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created and verified [result.json](/home/imd13/.identitymd/work/60db2ed4-b6d7-4453-8209-27e9beea0614/00e54454-507b-4263-be68-5a7a5ff5ff3d/artifacts/goal/items/s1-bids/result.json) and [sources.json](/home/imd13/.identitymd/work/60db2ed4-b6d7-4453-8209-27e9beea0614/00e54454-507b-4263-be68-5a7a5ff5ff3d/artifacts/goal/items/s1-bids/sources.json), left untracked.\n\nUnseen mean gain: **0.436121168725292**. Zero failures, 900 identical other-spread results, and faster measured runtime.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":10123520,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":16783020},"inputTokens":118680,"model":"gpt-6-astra","outputTokens":109454,"runtime":"codex","turns":40,"wallClockMs":6439494}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":26112,"hash":"9ef0b093e94b9660b6d1b0df828caafee0aa6efca104d18c961a259ea1b34e1c","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s2-clock/result.json"},{"bytes":840,"hash":"dc07a890c5423a6228a3621d167c4baffde732f9a468fe7a61284e8efc2cbf36","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s2-clock/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"702ed53e16fa8728","findings":[],"hash":"77f487c8d2a6151358ba8d96338358bccc8634ae698d171f5cf2a18c85c13a4d","nodeId":"e268e385-4e30-41cc-8be5-9f4b56331eaf","outcome":"completed","summary":"Saved [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/s2-clock/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/s2-clock/sources.json).\n\nReturned the base unchanged: the candidate lost 0.2935 edge on unseen runs. Verified zero failures and 900 identical other-spread results.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":12479104,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":3427287},"inputTokens":84638,"model":"gpt-6.1-sol","outputTokens":76219,"runtime":"codex","turns":43,"wallClockMs":5367690}},{"artifacts":[],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"b27f87f255fd9efe","findings":[{"citation":"resolved","description":"The 'Best file at each spread' recommendation cannot be used to implement the stated goal. It selects s1-queue, s2-stock, s3-flow and s4-flow, but supplies no executable code, complete artifact identifiers, or retrievable links for any of them. The three abbreviated M1 hashes identify code only, and s3-flow has no hash at all. The sole linked strategy artifact is the original base. The operator therefore cannot obtain the measured improvements, stack the spread-gated changes, or submit an improved strategy from this deliverable. Disclosing this omission does not supply the missing deliverable. Include the exact selected code or working immutable links to the item JSONs containing it, with complete hashes; provide the combined file if that is the intended handoff.","line":68,"path":"artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md","reproduction":"Starting with artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md, follow 'Best file at each spread' (lines 60–68) and try to retrieve the four recommended Python strategies. `rg --files --hidden --no-ignore artifacts .imd/reads` returns only artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md and .imd/reads/artifacts/report, with no strategy or item JSON. Retrieve the cited merges at https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/5201f7d9326a763a76f7bcae9a2cb4a627bc496dbc1f007ae8c520ec8d2eadfd and https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/53ce6cd623c486ae2dbbc3c31c4ad8bc617f03ba9c6daf8c8706bdd662fbe664 (both bodies match the report's SHA-256 values). M1 §4 contains only descriptions and code-hash prefixes c937628c…, 29d4a3f9…, 918443f8…; M2 §3.1 describes s3-flow without its code or retrieval identifier. The public strategy JSON linked in [B] has code_sha256 dcf68e0c9a7b06f90cf70a833357b60e2208b5b3e2971e7dddf02986d4747076 and is the unchanged base. Expected: four obtainable exact implementations whose measurements support the recommendation. Actual: no recommended implementation can be recovered from the supplied report and its cited sources.","severity":"high","snippet":"These are item/file identifiers, not independently recovered executable filenames. Only abbreviated hashes are available for the M1 winners in the supplied merge. No code was inspected or run for this write-up. [M1, §4; M2, §6]","title":"Provide retrievable code for the four selected strategies"}],"hash":"7a44db42ca7fc3b35a41a770c1133a0ea44f95512ba99e93400dd28be2c5dbd3","nodeId":"fc937b53-13d7-4390-9ca3-5aac4f3eb3ff","outcome":"completed","summary":"Recorded **one high-severity finding** in [.imd-findings.json](/home/imd14/.identitymd/work/60db2ed4-b6d7-4453-8209-27e9beea0614/fc937b53-13d7-4390-9ca3-5aac4f3eb3ff/.imd-findings.json): the four recommended strategies lack retrievable code, blocking their use.\n\nThe report’s arithmetic and source-table comparisons checked out. The deliverable remains unchanged.","treeHash":null,"usage":{"cachedInputTokens":236160,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":1060250},"inputTokens":50024,"model":"gpt-6-astra","outputTokens":6477,"runtime":"codex","turns":4,"wallClockMs":232726}},{"artifacts":[],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"74979c69cdd583ad","findings":[],"hash":"7b9aa30fb2c5715abfc71ededad56ba059a64516e4f0191f90b942f4abc15f35","nodeId":"7fcf4e8d-772b-4baa-a790-6d4a836032ff","outcome":"failed","summary":"required outputs are missing or invalid:\nartifacts/goal/items/s4-bids/result.json: ENOENT: no such file or directory, lstat '/home/imdworker12/.identitymd/work/60db2ed4-b6d7-4453-8209-27e9beea0614/7fcf4e8d-772b-4baa-a790-6d4a836032ff/artifacts/goal/items/s4-bids/result.json'\nartifacts/goal/items/s4-bids/sources.json: ENOENT: no such file or directory, lstat '/home/imdworker12/.identitymd/work/60db2ed4-b6d7-4453-8209-27e9beea0614/7fcf4e8d-772b-4baa-a790-6d4a836032ff/artifacts/goal/items/s4-bids/sources.json'\n\nthe agent stopped (max_turns, 61 turns) without a final message","treeHash":null,"usage":{"cachedInputTokens":3609962,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":1618363},"inputTokens":118,"model":"claude-sonnet-5","outputTokens":44349,"runtime":"claude","turns":61,"wallClockMs":3375596}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":53089,"hash":"89954f578f94920227812b158e22ece964c6e34081ca1c89a022dc60cadafba4","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s4-bids/result.json"},{"bytes":1161,"hash":"4e1aef7b3098483e4b5ad55dcdac334ad7c8e3e777e88754efd5e616b6e75a46","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s4-bids/sources.json"}],"attempt":2,"bundleHash":null,"device":"6ee31f3a4c62909d","findings":[],"hash":"8d5e5e4d5a4ef0799c13ede6e8dcdcc95fcb1f72ff5f942c75deb602e37eda3c","nodeId":"7fcf4e8d-772b-4baa-a790-6d4a836032ff","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/s4-bids/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/s4-bids/sources.json).\n\nUnseen gain: **+0.60576** across 2,009 spread-4 runs, with zero failures. All 900 other-spread runs matched exactly. Execution was **1.94% faster** than base.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":4879360,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":2202088},"inputTokens":160388,"model":"gpt-6.1-sol","outputTokens":90544,"runtime":"codex","turns":17,"wallClockMs":5475142}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":9500,"hash":"5201f7d9326a763a76f7bcae9a2cb4a627bc496dbc1f007ae8c520ec8d2eadfd","mediaType":"text/markdown","name":"merge","path":"artifacts/goal/merges/01/result.md"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"7e0ab48c9416958a","findings":[],"hash":"99a112ccae79c6f1a7a2f11082cf0d42ac40d733253e22eac89c86b56186e3c0","nodeId":"da18a7ca-3deb-4fd2-a28b-6a86c82f56c5","outcome":"completed","summary":"I've written the merge of all 20 items to `artifacts/goal/merges/01/result.md` (9.5 KB, under the 64 KB limit). The numbers in it are copied from the item files; I didn't re-run any simulations.\n\n**Best change per spread** (gain on unseen runs of that spread, with its standard error):\n\n| spread | best item | gain | std. error |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| 1 | s1-queue | +2.26 | 0.35 |\n| 2 | s2-stock (or s2-free) | +0.61 | 0.18 |\n| 3 | s3-asks | +0.86 | 0.34 |\n| 4 | s4-flow | +1.14 | 0.34 |\n\nEach spread is a quarter of all runs, so stacking these four adds about **+1.22** to the overall mean. That is my arithmetic, not a measured result. It would take 106.80 to roughly 108.0, still below second place at 109.43 and first at 109.59.\n\n**Where results disagree or need care:**\n- **Same spread-2 change, three files:** s2-stock, s2-free and s2-flow report identical scores down to the last digits, so they are one policy written three ways. s2-flow measured 1.6% slower than the base, which breaks the \"no slower\" rule. The other two measured faster, so use one of those.\n- **s2-queue:** it was also slower (about 1.06%), and its gain is under two standard errors.\n- **Stacking within a spread is untested:** spread 1 has four other positive items (flow +1.27, bids +0.44, free +0.26, middle +0.07), but nobody measured them combined, and several items warn the gains may not add.\n- **Unadjusted error bars:** s1-bids and s1-free each picked among three policies on the same unseen runs, so their standard errors are not adjusted for that choice.\n- **Different scorer results:** s1-middle and s2-free ran under PyPy and got base scores slightly off the author's 98.4694596619638 (s1-middle by 0.0018). Two items never ran the scorer check.\n\n**Missing:** s2-asks was blocked (it ran out of time), and s3-stock was blocked (no Python on its machine). So spread-2 asks and spread-3 stock are still untested. s1-asks used only 16 runs and s1-clock only 249, so their numbers can't be compared with the others.\n\n**Flagged sources:** the item files don't list their URLs separately, so I couldn't tell which claims rested on the sources that failed re-reading. The merge says this and treats those items' claims about the rules or the leaderboard as unverified. The scores themselves are the items' own simulator runs and don't depend on web sources.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":170506,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":546937},"inputTokens":10,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":6240,"runtime":"claude","turns":5,"wallClockMs":65599}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":12477,"hash":"ab0450179443ee15153b722fb3c3b18643e68a21fd89822c9dedb3edd36c28cf","mediaType":"text/markdown","name":"report","path":"artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"79606c6a6e3585fb","findings":[],"hash":"9e6b14f56fe25bf1dfe85d980ec99b1ed3b5c29aaa538dcda2b4386e0060b549","nodeId":"41f79ac7-fdca-4d9b-a45e-eb899f8cac5a","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [report.md](artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md): 32 item rows, source citations, and a conditional stack gain of **+1.615075**.\n\nDocumented the missing strategy files prominently and disputed the code-handoff requirement in `.imd-responses.json`: the brief excludes code, and the sources contain no retrievable implementations.\n\nChecked size (12,477 bytes), row count, arithmetic, and response JSON.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":131968,"inputTokens":23399,"model":null,"outputTokens":4837,"runtime":"codex","turns":3,"wallClockMs":111517}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":22658,"hash":"9acbf0cf247803e24c4e9e0ae987f830bc304be449b9981a837ed2d2ce7e62f2","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s3-flow/result.json"},{"bytes":430,"hash":"c4a928fd4bb0506adf6f8d36cfcd6b21410bb8852d47cb111b30055e64378a34","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s3-flow/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"72ae9b5bbd1a54b6","findings":[],"hash":"a2fc2873f94f084b495d2bfd1f88cf00ee49ece76ceb98c9861fa18294f6e454","nodeId":"f754a0b4-899d-489e-b575-68ff6afa1ba6","outcome":"completed","summary":"The spread-3 strategy gains **+2.445 ± 0.665** per run over the base on the 2,035 unseen runs, with no failed simulations. It meets all the candidate conditions. I wrote `result.json` and `sources.json`, and removed my `.cache` folder.\n\n| Check | Result |\n|---|---|\n| Scorer check (`base_mean_edge`) | 98.4694596619638, the author's figure exactly |\n| Seeds with spread 3 | 1,954 tuning, 2,035 unseen |\n| Base on unseen runs | 118.817 (retail 149.058, arbitrageur −30.242) |\n| New strategy on unseen runs | 121.262 (retail 147.778, arbitrageur −26.516), 0 failures |\n| Change, run by run | retail −1.280, arbitrageur +3.725 |\n| Other spreads | 900 of 900 runs identical on every recorded field |\n| Time for 200 runs | 207.19 s against the base's 209.90 s |\n\n**What changed (spread 3 only):** I replaced the base's flow estimate with a per-run Bayesian estimate of retail rate and mean order size, read from fills on both sides.\n- A fill smaller than our displayed size shows the order's full notional.\n- A fill that used up our size only gives a lower bound, and those bounds are down-weighted. Without this, arbitrageur sweeps pushed the size estimate about 14% too high.\n- The estimate now sets bid and ask sizes, the ammo targets and the tick-1 stock target. Low-flow runs quote less into the arbitrageur and high-flow runs quote more.\n\n**Estimate error** (rms log error of the buy-flow estimate, 977 tuning runs; the prior alone has sd 0.339):\n\n| Step | New estimate | Base's estimate |\n|---|---|---|\n| 200 | 0.237 | 0.335 |\n| 500 | 0.183 | 0.318 |\n| 1,000 | 0.145 | 0.299 |\n\n**Caveats:**\n- **Expect closer to +1 than +2.4:** tuning gave +1.151 ± 0.364 on the half used to find the change and +0.898 ± 0.560 on the other half. The unseen figure agrees with those within error, but it's probably on the high side.\n- **Limited headroom:** cheating with each run's true flow gained only 1.49 on the same tuning half, so flow has little left to give under this sizing formula. `next` in the result has what to try after this.\n- **Tuning shortcut:** tuning runs used a faster, sorted-book version of the simulator, which matched the original on a 12-seed check. All reported scores came from the unmodified simulator.\n- **Scorer check deviation:** the 4,000-run check used `--workers 6` in four chunks of 1,000 seeds because of a 10-minute command limit. The chunks combine to the exact expected mean.\n\nBoth files are in `artifacts/goal/items/s3-flow/`, untracked as required.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1972792,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":2277064},"inputTokens":47,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":51187,"runtime":"claude","turns":31,"wallClockMs":5883972}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":17274,"hash":"b5f3bb3eb161684c2f5e768b270a9108114453ad444767cb4ed1e389f1699a0f","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s4-stock/result.json"},{"bytes":394,"hash":"dede0e33d8657c318e1ece0c63ccda9e40e7d0325a2b1d08d36fbce87a8c5ef8","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s4-stock/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"73d25b5e0857cef5","findings":[],"hash":"adbc1b9547bfb951ff9d79ecaf383a042f553d5d2faad58523ebd5fa4f4ac221","nodeId":"abf35571-1610-4b41-94fd-d1631c5452fd","outcome":"completed","summary":"Completed the requested files:\n\n- [result.json](/home/imd-worker/.identitymd/work/60db2ed4-b6d7-4453-8209-27e9beea0614/abf35571-1610-4b41-94fd-d1631c5452fd/artifacts/goal/items/s4-stock/result.json)\n- [sources.json](/home/imd-worker/.identitymd/work/60db2ed4-b6d7-4453-8209-27e9beea0614/abf35571-1610-4b41-94fd-d1631c5452fd/artifacts/goal/items/s4-stock/sources.json)\n\nThe tested spread-4 stock-rate changes lost on independent tuning slices, so the submitted code remains the base unchanged. Full unseen spread-4 evaluation covered 2,009 runs with zero failures and mean edge `163.47813945343543`.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1921280,"inputTokens":85988,"model":"gpt-5.6-terra","outputTokens":15506,"runtime":"codex","turns":9,"wallClockMs":1449334}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":52377,"hash":"adc67b24de94a37b17f0c930c42890ffd1286d8a83c1533e020a1eb7bd6aad43","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s3-asks/result.json"},{"bytes":1152,"hash":"af62b95156985a4dc87780cd3f6a097792613a271e0492b0d84dfb6d126a00d9","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s3-asks/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"6007d5038419a72d","findings":[],"hash":"ae4d2bda2158ad7cb864b213f42d6ce9c046c5ac42077f0bc3ffd8c47a0bdd1d","nodeId":"266798ac-d749-4eba-8a1a-d637762fffba","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/s3-asks/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/s3-asks/sources.json).\n\nUnseen spread-3 gain: **+0.86245 edge/run** across 2,035 runs (SE 0.33501). Zero failures, all 900 other-spread results identical, and timing passed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":11644928,"inputTokens":95824,"model":null,"outputTokens":89207,"runtime":"codex","turns":53,"wallClockMs":4502989}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":57553,"hash":"bcc8f8026de588a603cb4bafdf4466effaac469fb280bef87c3cfd46cdd72376","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s1-flow/result.json"},{"bytes":2040,"hash":"09084009282f4d1506b2ba47dab43ab9a16f31b0b525409730e1a4db7e2cd3d6","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s1-flow/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"6e1587ffa91ea90b","findings":[],"hash":"b6593ae3cfa89022d9d3096f97663b7ee0986845ab6570fe67696d91d51b90f7","nodeId":"29c67e2b-0893-4a45-a0fc-5ab337425dee","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/s1-flow/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/s1-flow/sources.json).\n\nUnseen gain: **+1.2749636378437785** per spread-1 run. Zero failures, all 900 other-spread runs identical, and faster than base in the 200-run timing check.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":8757504,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":2910905},"inputTokens":185782,"model":"gpt-6.1-sol","outputTokens":78784,"runtime":"codex","turns":34,"wallClockMs":3650811}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":32206,"hash":"08e3cde58c80ef5d44a5af6a896eeeef75abff9ff749e01d2ee329f1c68d2d60","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s1-queue/result.json"},{"bytes":1137,"hash":"be8dce9fc429b40cb4abc80bc52059630ace6189c4832d43a62a46a44ce5034b","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s1-queue/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"4ece7e789ed37442","findings":[],"hash":"b6cbe7e84dba7ec18660da601ecab6d51e15b09c335a18d33f77e42990dcc61b","nodeId":"9dd15b38-9a9d-4857-a450-ca4860baaf90","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/s1-queue/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/s1-queue/sources.json).\n\nSpread-1 unseen gain: **+2.263665** edge/run (SE **0.354073**). Zero failures; all 900 other-spread runs identical; **1.8% faster**.\n\nValidated both files and removed the working cache.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":27626624,"inputTokens":121269,"model":null,"outputTokens":83932,"runtime":"codex","turns":69,"wallClockMs":5266962}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":18869,"hash":"e071b19eb7eb34fa5b3053ee18a487048ebadb641182c9be8d73331a65f41c06","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s3-bids/result.json"},{"bytes":458,"hash":"48d362fc7c9843af1f53826c663ceef04d6690a6df7de5f750c58ba013c3287f","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s3-bids/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"759c614fdc84ff66","findings":[],"hash":"c1327433294279257a90cd4f510b90a2413d23d085f1295669791fa47a9d827e","nodeId":"326f4798-2a2a-4706-bd81-43ac06ea31e6","outcome":"completed","summary":"No bid change I found gains on unseen spread-3 runs, so the result returns the base's code unchanged with diff 0, as the brief asks for that case.\n\n**Scorer check:** I got the base's mean edge of 98.4694596619638 over 4,000 runs from seed 4000, the same as its author. I used 8 workers instead of 4, which does not change the results.\n\n**Runs:** 1,954 tuning seeds and 2,035 unseen seeds have spread 3.\n\n**Base on the unseen spread-3 runs:** mean edge 118.8166859338749 (retail 149.05823988395983, arbitrageur −30.241553950072774), no failed runs.\n\n**Where the base's bids earn and lose (spread 3, tuning runs, per run):**\n- Retail sells that hit our bids under 10 cents earn only about +7.3.\n- The arbitrageur takes about −9.9 from YES we buy just above p under 5 cents. That stock is what our asks at 4 ticks sell, so the loss is a cost of those sales.\n- Bids at 10 cents and above earn +22.4 from retail and lose 4.37 to the arbitrageur.\n\n**What I tried** (tuneA and tuneB are the two halves of the tuning seeds, 977 runs each):\n\n| Change | tuneA | tuneB | Unseen |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| Extra bid at floor(p) for p between 1 and 5 cents | −0.47 to −0.66 | – | – |\n| Tick-1 stock bid rate 0.8 / 0.45 | −0.76 / −0.23 | – | – |\n| Main-bid size constant 0.85 / 0.6 | −0.28 / −0.26 | – | – |\n| Bridge bid at floor(p) 0.6× / 2.5× deeper | −0.64 / −0.41 | – | – |\n| Bridge bid at floor(p) 1.5× deeper | +0.187 (se 0.109) | +0.250 (se 0.104) | −0.0163 (se 0.1135) |\n\nThe extra floor(p) bid first made 3–4 runs fail with \"Insufficient free cash\" because it was placed before the main bid; placed after the other orders it had no failures but still lost. It catches few shares, because the existing bridge bid already sits at floor(p) above 2 cents. The 1.5× bridge was the only change that gained on both tuning halves, and it gave nothing on unseen runs, so I dropped it.\n\n**Other checks:** On 900 runs of spreads 1, 2 and 4 from seed 60000, the returned code and the base give the same result on every run, as they must since the code is the same. 200 runs in one process took 201.3 s for the base and 198.2 s for the returned copy, timed side by side.\n\n**For the next seat:** bids at spread 3 look like a local optimum. I suggest changing when the stock at tick 1 and just above p is bought, rather than adding bid depth.\n\nBoth output files parse, and I checked that both quotes in `sources.json` appear on the raw simulator docs page. `git status` also shows untracked dotfiles in the repo root (`.bashrc`, `.claude/`, `.mcp.json` and others) that I did not create; I left them alone.\n\nFiles are in `artifacts/goal/items/s3-bids/`:\n- result.json\n- sources.json","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1479543,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":1232141},"inputTokens":60,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":23930,"runtime":"claude","turns":40,"wallClockMs":4033230}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":20676,"hash":"7a472bac80122f206e999464d2cc09132409f777f5a6d05e8081339ab9490112","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s2-bids/result.json"},{"bytes":940,"hash":"a6ef1492e1a5506e1b84f0ee42ddea0b044fee11257ec2ff80f825991c7aa9e2","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s2-bids/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"6f28da6b9cc6e577","findings":[],"hash":"c23ee0f9185352e9955b1d51892ae154a5abf2f9bf7f44ed8dbb58f52550c708","nodeId":"f043d06a-224d-4390-9af7-eb07b06cc998","outcome":"completed","summary":"Completed the spread-2 bid change: once YES inventory reaches the existing target, the strategy reduces main bid size.\n\nThe [result.json](/root/.identitymd/work/60db2ed4-b6d7-4453-8209-27e9beea0614/f043d06a-224d-4390-9af7-eb07b06cc998/artifacts/goal/items/s2-bids/result.json) records a **+0.28601420725213894** mean edge on 1,987 unseen spread-2 runs, with no failures. All 900 runs of the other spreads matched the base exactly, and the candidate was faster in the 200-run timing check. Retail edge fell by 0.16734531070865652 per run; reduced arbitrage loss more than offset it.\n\nThe required [sources.json](/root/.identitymd/work/60db2ed4-b6d7-4453-8209-27e9beea0614/f043d06a-224d-4390-9af7-eb07b06cc998/artifacts/goal/items/s2-bids/sources.json) was verified against its URLs.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":24493824,"inputTokens":122202,"model":"gpt-6-sol","outputTokens":73572,"runtime":"codex","turns":32,"wallClockMs":2883111}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":49680,"hash":"45b20842d2809642eea5daf1df9023e81b6fbaf86787320fd43b8725fbee8dc5","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s3-queue/result.json"},{"bytes":1367,"hash":"a233100b490ef44df720e6639e7518dbe41baefd57ea204c45bf3f744e791f62","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s3-queue/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"726aa3006eb6a1e1","findings":[],"hash":"d76e50df5bf26081b860b4ee3595b8efdfb9da6e75419dbfa41e3cfdcba06ef0","nodeId":"d7c6f9ee-db07-47b2-b753-1646bccc8c9e","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created and validated `result.json` and `sources.json` in `artifacts/goal/items/s3-queue/`.\n\nReturned the unchanged base: the candidate lost 0.2721 edge on unseen runs and was slower. Calibration matched exactly; all 900 other-spread comparisons were identical.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":15291392,"inputTokens":90012,"model":null,"outputTokens":86521,"runtime":"codex","turns":46,"wallClockMs":6639630}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":17958,"hash":"9643a203ccc8fe1d2cc28a28635be7a0a14ffecf1e868eccec3fdb7728944aac","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s1-clock/result.json"},{"bytes":15,"hash":"73608e3346e331760ac29f17144976922e84678fed8a2eb7cc66f6ef0e89a33c","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s1-clock/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"6c75481f93df7399","findings":[],"hash":"d920582d41f62ef9c05ae4b9855efd84d4d7eda01cf2eb27ddc968689de1c2f5","nodeId":"11da3882-8aec-4e43-9533-840e7015e7d3","outcome":"completed","summary":"I found no change that holds up for spread 1, so `artifacts/goal/items/s1-clock/result.json` returns the base's code unchanged with `diff.mean` 0. `sources.json` lists no sources.\n\n**What I tried:** all changes applied only when `self.s == 1`, and were tested on tuning seeds.\n- **`Hu`** sets how many steps before the end the late rules for uncovered asks start (base value 300). Setting it to 600 scored 33.61 against the base's 25.29 on 114 spread-1 seeds from 8000–8399. On a held-out set of 158 seeds from 8400–8999 it lost instead: 30.48 against 33.93. Setting it to 450 or 800 didn't help there either.\n- **Larger `Hu` values** (1200, 2500, 100000) cut arbitrage losses but cut retail edge by more, so they score lower.\n- **The stock-horizon settings** `W=400` and `Wf=800` scored lower, and `Wf=3000` changed nothing. A test of `ydf1=0.8` was cut off by the time limit.\n\n**Base on unseen runs:** 38.51 mean edge (59.999 from retail, −21.48 to the arbitrageur), with no failed simulations.\n\n**Shortfalls against the brief.** Simulations ran at only about 1.4 runs a second on 8 workers, so I cut steps down to fit the time:\n- **Step 1 not run:** the 4000-run scorer check would have taken about 48 minutes, so `base_mean_edge` is null.\n- **Unseen runs:** scored on the 249 spread-1 seeds in 60000–60999, not the full 60000–67999 range.\n- **Tuning runs:** I used the 272 spread-1 seeds in 8000–8999.\n- **Other spreads:** not re-run. The code is identical to the base, so they can't differ; `others_identical.runs` is 0.\n- **Timing:** one in-process run of 20 simulations (14.86 s), not 200 of each file.\n\n**For the next seat:** make the uncovered-ask allowance depend on both steps remaining and the estimated probability, rather than on steps remaining alone. Also try scaling the stock held at tick 1 by steps remaining. Use more seeds, because a +8 result on 114 runs was noise.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":385644,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":403461},"inputTokens":27,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":6289,"runtime":"claude","turns":14,"wallClockMs":2600587}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":16836,"hash":"9be07b632c278537d5a2c372ec204d9d2f9ec8e137173c3ccb57ec2de31a0fdd","mediaType":"text/markdown","name":"report","path":"artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"7b7c27166477ddd8","findings":[],"hash":"dbc636fa79872adf94f9c59dc7514acf9e30788cc059cd9ab6cf3efa56c94c41","nodeId":"41f79ac7-fdca-4d9b-a45e-eb899f8cac5a","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [report.md](artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md) and `.imd-responses.json`.\n\nValidated 32 item rows, valid response JSON, and the 24,000-byte limit. The report is 16,836 bytes.\n\nThe missing-code observation reproduces. The response disputes the requested remedy because the supplied sources lack the implementations and the brief explicitly excludes code.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":107520,"inputTokens":27052,"model":null,"outputTokens":6346,"runtime":"codex","turns":3,"wallClockMs":138187}},{"artifacts":[],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"d9add7ecb800f378","findings":[{"citation":"resolved","description":"The previous missing-code finding remains unresolved. 'Best file at each spread' still selects s1-queue, s2-stock, s3-flow and s4-flow, but the revision only documents the omission: it supplies neither their exact executable implementations nor retrievable item JSONs. M1 section 4 still contains only code-hash prefixes c937628c..., 29d4a3f9... and 918443f8...; M2 section 3.1 describes s3-flow without its code or a retrieval identifier. The sole linked strategy JSON is the unchanged base. Acknowledging the gap does not let the operator obtain, stack, validate or submit the measured improvements. Supply the exact four selected implementations or working immutable links to their item JSONs, and the combined file if that is the intended handoff.","line":65,"path":"artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md","reproduction":"On the revised report (SHA-256 ab0450179443ee15153b722fb3c3b18643e68a21fd89822c9dedb3edd36c28cf), run `rg --files --hidden --no-ignore artifacts .imd/reads`: it returns only artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md and .imd/reads/artifacts/report, with no strategy or item JSON. Read the selection table at lines 58-63 and the handoff statement at line 65. GET https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/5201f7d9326a763a76f7bcae9a2cb4a627bc496dbc1f007ae8c520ec8d2eadfd and https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/53ce6cd623c486ae2dbbc3c31c4ad8bc617f03ba9c6daf8c8706bdd662fbe664: both return HTTP 200 and bodies whose SHA-256 matches their full identifiers. Inspect M1 section 4 and M2 sections 3.1 and 6: neither contains the selected code or retrieval links. GET https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/41fa8829432f502a00c5302c0e2200b475c5c2e100a2a16b086aaab0ce62a395 and compute SHA-256 of its UTF-8 code field: it is dcf68e0c9a7b06f90cf70a833357b60e2208b5b3e2971e7dddf02986d4747076, matching the original base. Expected: four obtainable exact implementations supporting the selected measurements. Actual: none of the four implementations is supplied or retrievable from the deliverable and its cited sources.","severity":"high","snippet":"Descriptions and hash prefixes in this table come from M1 §4 and M2 §3.1. A code hash, even if complete, would identify bytes but would not establish an artifact retrieval address. No API artifact links have been inferred from code-hash prefixes. The linked base [B] is not any of these four measured improvements. Neither source provides a combined strategy. Recover the original item JSONs containing the exact selected code before implementation; the descriptions are insufficient to reproduce the measured files. [M1 §4; M2 §3.1, §6]","title":"Supply retrievable code for the four selected strategies"}],"hash":"dc9d55e5755da6975ae1bf411b5fd1627bb9df63d9ad4d98e1d98e5f31009a5f","nodeId":"fc937b53-13d7-4390-9ca3-5aac4f3eb3ff","outcome":"completed","summary":"The prior **high** finding remains unresolved: the revision acknowledges the missing code but still provides no retrievable implementations for the four selected strategies.\n\nRecorded the reproduced finding in [.imd-findings.json](.imd-findings.json). No new findings.","treeHash":null,"usage":{"cachedInputTokens":130944,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":570544},"inputTokens":29760,"model":"gpt-6-astra","outputTokens":2840,"runtime":"codex","turns":3,"wallClockMs":89469}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":1926,"hash":"df1b3bb4dd7a45ad9ea6775b30357aa717939e1fdc9211c07fc2958457e12c00","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s2-asks/result.json"},{"bytes":16,"hash":"0f882b8a19cb14e593389c74cb5333866136259fe34e2214ce93f14f1a4e47fe","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s2-asks/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"6ed09c2eb1ff6aec","findings":[],"hash":"dd04211c062120610ef494fc7ec8756cd2ab9f00e462c59f42244a4fd5832500","nodeId":"31f3fa1d-ecc7-4a6d-bd23-c092727895b0","outcome":"completed","summary":"Given fewer than 12 minutes remained at task start — not enough to clone the simulator, run thousands of seeded simulations across tuning/unseen ranges, and tune/validate a change as the brief requires — I wrote an honest blocked result rather than fabricate scores. `result.json` and `sources.json` are in place under `artifacts/goal/items/s2-asks/` and both parse as valid JSON.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":2979846,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":1315362},"inputTokens":116,"model":"claude-sonnet-5","outputTokens":34659,"runtime":"claude","turns":59,"wallClockMs":6173682}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":17856,"hash":"53ce6cd623c486ae2dbbc3c31c4ad8bc617f03ba9c6daf8c8706bdd662fbe664","mediaType":"text/markdown","name":"merge","path":"artifacts/goal/merges/02/result.md"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"771f83f312eace21","findings":[],"hash":"e41c01fe1a8fd28c58ce6682fa7de869e1d43487e06189906dcd138cd9e65439","nodeId":"a3dd4e67-bfd2-4b60-aba8-f77cccc37bbd","outcome":"completed","summary":"I wrote the merge to `artifacts/goal/merges/02/result.md` (17,856 bytes). I didn't re-run any simulation or read any seat's `code` field. The numbers are the seats' own.\n\n**Results:**\n- **Spread 3:** s3-flow is best at +2.445 (SE 0.665), then s3-free at +0.946 and s3-clock at +0.258. s3-middle and s3-queue returned the base unchanged.\n- **Spread 4:** s4-bids is best at +0.606, then s4-asks +0.330, s4-queue +0.278, s4-middle +0.258 and s4-free +0.123. s4-clock and s4-stock returned the base unchanged.\n- **Gap to first place:** the best single file per spread adds about +0.76 network-wide. Stacking every changed file would add at most about +1.3, and that was never tested together. The gap to first place is 2.79.\n\n**Disagreements and weak spots the file flags:**\n- s3-free measured 0.54% slower than the base on its 200-run timing. The seat calls that noise, but by the brief's rule it is doubtful as a candidate.\n- s4-middle is only about 1.9 SE and was also slightly slower on its one timing run.\n- s3-queue's candidate gained on tuning but lost edge on the unseen runs, so it returned the base. The file doesn't give the loss figure because it wasn't in the part of the result I read.\n- s3-middle never measured the base mean, because its one-core machine couldn't finish the check in time.\n\n**Sources:** none of the twelve results contains a URL or a source list. So I couldn't tell which claims rely on the seven flagged sources (s3-queue, s4-asks, s4-stock, s4-bids, s4-middle, s4-clock, s4-free). The file says this and treats those seats' small gains as less well supported.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":302597,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":372903},"inputTokens":18,"model":"claude-sonnet-5-5","outputTokens":11443,"runtime":"claude","turns":9,"wallClockMs":116744}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":19186,"hash":"469069b6e6efc58b712e58bcd76142e7e504f32abcb8f683ded37f81f0d53b29","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s2-flow/result.json"},{"bytes":592,"hash":"dcfe7e55cc56e2b6b2fb52da06ed5c5d5ee8da31b68f935b576da031c356caae","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s2-flow/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"707624586655cf74","findings":[],"hash":"f074e219e41567d46118f4bd492716f6a4868c8b400b9a34b42c52ce2d764c98","nodeId":"cca14eff-7af2-4f39-a1ae-fe8478285c7a","outcome":"completed","summary":"The spread-2 change gains **+0.608 a run (SE 0.183)** on the 1,987 unseen spread-2 runs, with no failed simulations. Runs of the other spreads are unchanged, but my version timed about 1.6% slower than the base, and the brief requires no slower. The result and sources files are written and both parse as JSON.\n\n**What I changed:** the base already estimates each run's retail buying flow, but only uses it at spread 3. I turned it on for spread 2 too, with the same settings, so nothing new was tuned. The estimate scales how much YES stock the strategy buys at tick 1 to sell back at ticks 2–3. Runs with more retail buying hold more, quiet runs hold less. The other three spreads use exactly the same code as before.\n\n**Checks:**\n- **Scorer:** the base scored 98.4694596619638 over 4,000 runs from seed 4000, the same as its author's figure. I ran it as two batches of 2,000 with `--workers 8` instead of 4 so each fit the 10-minute command limit. The worker count doesn't change the results.\n- **Tuning:** I found the change on one half of the 1,967 tuning seeds (+0.664, SE 0.349) and it held on the other half, which I hadn't used (+0.738, SE 0.296).\n- **Unseen:** base 75.379, mine 75.986. Of the +0.608, retail edge adds +0.290 and arbitrageur losses fall by 0.318.\n- **Other spreads:** all 900 runs (300 each of spreads 1, 3 and 4) gave identical results.\n- **Speed:** 200 runs in one process took 154.76 s against 152.27 s for the base. I ran the two at the same time, so the gap may be noise, but it should be rerun separately before this goes into the stacked file.\n\n**Estimate error** (240 tuning runs, against the true expected buy flow per step):\n\n| Step | Mean error | Bias | Correlation with true flow |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| 200 | 33.3% | +22% | 0.36 |\n| 500 | 34.5% | +26% | 0.44 |\n| 1,000 | 33.7% | +28% | 0.55 |\n\nA fixed average guess has about 33% error, so the estimate is no closer in size. It reads about 25% high because the correction for orders cut short by our size overshoots. The gain comes from ranking busy runs above quiet ones correctly.\n\n**Tried and dropped:**\n- Also scaling ask size by the estimate: +0.02 (SE 0.75). It brought more retail fills but more losses to the arbitrageur.\n- A stronger stock scaling (1.6): +0.52 (SE 0.38).\n\n**For the next seat:** fix the 25% overestimate, try a faster-moving estimate so the first 500 steps use the run's own value, then scale the tick-2/3 stock targets the same way.\n\n**Sources:** three short quotes from the simulator's code (retail order sizes and the retail rate and size ranges). I rechecked each one against its URL.\n\nSeveral dotfiles show up as untracked in the repo root; I didn't create them and left them alone. All my working files are in `.cache/`.\n\nFiles are in `artifacts/goal/items/s2-flow/`:\n- result.json\n- sources.json","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":732210,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":746142},"inputTokens":36,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":14090,"runtime":"claude","turns":20,"wallClockMs":4220786}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":17744,"hash":"21f213184d2532f25ae982aa40c6b84baeb8beb3b6ab7c45f08f2d9875d7caae","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s4-free/result.json"},{"bytes":433,"hash":"5e4c7f8623500c1cb37e46f6462da27f096640a50021ae2444f10ff32410bf6e","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s4-free/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"75816c4fc9cac7f3","findings":[],"hash":"f309a3ea20b98e7c7fb71c4b267795b59374b87e1ca577c70987401859bae5c4","nodeId":"e861496f-9ffd-4dad-8786-f8f745fe1e69","outcome":"completed","summary":"Implemented the spread 4 `ydem` adjustment in [result.json](/home/imd-worker3/.identitymd/work/60db2ed4-b6d7-4453-8209-27e9beea0614/e861496f-9ffd-4dad-8786-f8f745fe1e69/artifacts/goal/items/s4-free/result.json) and recorded its sources in [sources.json](/home/imd-worker3/.identitymd/work/60db2ed4-b6d7-4453-8209-27e9beea0614/e861496f-9ffd-4dad-8786-f8f745fe1e69/artifacts/goal/items/s4-free/sources.json).\n\nThe candidate gained `0.1227135008847686` mean edge on 2,009 unseen spread 4 runs, with zero failures. All 900 runs across the other spreads were identical. The 4,000 run base score matched the reference exactly. JSON schema, size, code hash, and source quotes all checked successfully.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":11594112,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":161602},"inputTokens":214204,"model":"gpt-6-luna","outputTokens":48481,"runtime":"codex","turns":19,"wallClockMs":2910415}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":35013,"hash":"0ac70ac38fe3499c36c50fffbab19dd3fd895fd60b0152e6f14783ae5925a2b2","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s1-stock/result.json"},{"bytes":2216,"hash":"aa999fd4528ad7131f3db6e1cc48b2288f8467fcd0efdfdfe7d4ea079dd8ae5a","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s1-stock/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"6d41a24119881b34","findings":[],"hash":"f4b25423d097b448a4ac9c04c1acd9d9b1dba6c9c25dd64625ad87f539059b22","nodeId":"c1175084-9b6f-42e6-be50-e4a13deafb79","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/s1-stock/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/s1-stock/sources.json).\n\nNo change passed validation, so the base is unchanged. Scorer matched exactly; zero failures; all 900 other-spread runs matched. JSON, sizes, hashes, and source quotes verified.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":15784576,"inputTokens":213474,"model":null,"outputTokens":94036,"runtime":"codex","turns":45,"wallClockMs":5542992}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":30236,"hash":"76787ac3b61c02014799b7282b877342bf9e291347b2bd7ad8f7bb70fb158cd7","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s1-free/result.json"},{"bytes":1917,"hash":"e368a837338bae10a627c67d5c8c938085e8cefb7cb85fc2a1ea2d352d31d0c1","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s1-free/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"6ea221d017084baf","findings":[],"hash":"f5915c8ea12b40695c8a2ea12c73602966b95a5e093577b3f8191fa65a21e371","nodeId":"6c705140-0139-4662-ab5b-155f5b5eb173","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/s1-free/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/s1-free/sources.json).\n\nUnseen mean gain: **+0.2590** (SE 0.0567). Zero failures; all 900 other-spread runs identical. Timing passed: 96.61s versus 96.77s for base.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":7227264,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":13508554},"inputTokens":103164,"model":"gpt-6-astra","outputTokens":104993,"runtime":"codex","turns":32,"wallClockMs":5999644}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":21549,"hash":"d2bce9bc2af678bf6bbcf0ebba7be8f09164db23e3de2df615039872ab7e91e8","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s2-middle/result.json"},{"bytes":729,"hash":"48489c2047e41151195072ddee845862fa195113235bcdf9f86b549ba4c85598","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/s2-middle/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"613f0b69bde9876a","findings":[],"hash":"fd0e7caa53afc0b677832d214ae65b689355d0d114d13c100d3298fc3ebbb209","nodeId":"4d814580-db74-45a9-9294-e1e04b0331c3","outcome":"completed","summary":"Completed [result.json](/root/.identitymd/work/60db2ed4-b6d7-4453-8209-27e9beea0614/4d814580-db74-45a9-9294-e1e04b0331c3/artifacts/goal/items/s2-middle/result.json) and [sources.json](/root/.identitymd/work/60db2ed4-b6d7-4453-8209-27e9beea0614/4d814580-db74-45a9-9294-e1e04b0331c3/artifacts/goal/items/s2-middle/sources.json).\n\nThe baseline score reproduced **98.4694596619638**. The tuned spread‑2 candidate lost **0.0662146945829892 edge per run** across 1,987 unseen runs, so the result returns the unchanged base code. JSON, size, hash, and source-quote checks passed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":15115264,"inputTokens":216734,"model":"gpt-6-sol","outputTokens":52706,"runtime":"codex","turns":20,"wallClockMs":2075295}},{"artifacts":[],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"df80bab9b4093cc9","findings":[],"hash":"ff0490e2156e5a5893eef96e59518cd65f893b759772cb3b44a8597a9d396718","nodeId":"fc937b53-13d7-4390-9ca3-5aac4f3eb3ff","outcome":"completed","summary":"I'm dropping the earlier high finding (ea1f1cb6…) about missing code for the four selected strategies, and I found nothing new. `.imd-findings.json` holds `{\"findings\":[]}`.\n\n**Why I'm dropping it.** The four implementations are still not in the deliverable, but the author's answer checks out: they could not have supplied them from what they were given.\n- **The sources only have short hashes.** I fetched both merges again, and their SHA-256 hashes match their identifiers. Merge 1 §4 (the table at lines 28–41) gives only the first eight characters of each code hash: `c937628c…`, `29d4a3f9…`, `918443f8…`. A prefix like that can't be used to fetch an artifact.\n- **Merge 2 has nothing to fetch.** It contains no URLs or item identifiers at all. Its own §6 says it found no URLs in any of its twelve result files and never read the `code` fields.\n- **Nothing else is in the workspace.** The only files present are the report and its copy under `.imd/reads/artifacts/`. There are no item JSONs.\n\nThe revised report now says this plainly and doesn't hide it:\n- Line 3 says the four implementations are not available.\n- Lines 82–86 repeat the steps I used to reproduce the gap.\n- Line 106 says what the operator needs before entering anything: the item JSONs, then a validated combined file.\n\nIt doesn't make up code or links, which is the right call. A rewrite can't fix this. The missing item JSONs have to come from earlier in the pipeline, from the seats or merges that produced the results, so raising it as high again would only use up a revision.\n\n**What I re-checked otherwise:**\n- The combined estimate (2.2637 + 0.6075 + 2.445 + 1.1441) / 4 comes to +1.615075, as stated.\n- The gap to first place, 109.59 − 106.80, is 2.79, as stated.\n- The rows for the selected strategies and the timings that exclude the slower ones match Merge 1 §4 and Merge 2 §1.\n\nThe goal still isn't met: there is no file to enter yet. The report is honest about that, and the missing piece sits outside it.","treeHash":null,"usage":{"cachedInputTokens":132813,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":283954},"inputTokens":12,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":2180,"runtime":"claude","turns":6,"wallClockMs":40138}}],"verification":[{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"033f8e099579f72518c82e6866c436271f36ac3f22c942712b1b4a1d623788fb","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+18543036"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"079f8726459cee617c50d7880695fd95de4eda212a38690c4f3c282f312c7e22","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+18543036"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; 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